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Monday May 19, 2014 - 18:53:14 GMT -

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Market Flips from Risk off to Risk on. Key U.K. Data All Week.

Market Flips from Risk off to Risk on. Key U.K. Data All Week.
May 19, 2014  00:00 gmt
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map

  • Markets have been moving gradually Monday from a broad "risk-off" position to a more neutral posture led by U.S. markets.
  • Prime fixed income markets ended with yields mostly higher after they were trading modestly lower when shares were weaker. Prices on bonds on the periphery of the Eurozone ended mostly lower (yields are higher).
  • Equities ended mixed. European equities closed mixed, but off their lows.  Far East markets closed down earlier. U.S. equities are trading higher. A positive U.S. close for shares could give overseas markets a boost on  Tuesday
  • The U.S. 10-yr is 2.53%, +1bp.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflect yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off (red)

HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS:  JP- Trade, Lead Indicators, GB- CPI, RPI & PPI

Trading has been trying to turn back to the more traditional market influences, but potential political unrest is an ever-present risk with Russia and its neighbors and with China and  nearby countries.

 The most basic influence in forex is capital flows, and they are usually driven by interest rate and investment activities. The dominant theme very recently in the markets has been the price correction in equity markets led by the fall in U.S. prices. There have been official hopes that the global economy is on the mend, but the pace of recovery has been painstakingly slow.

Weekly Trading Planner

TUESDAY 20 May 2014
U.K- Inflation (CPI, RPI & PPI) CPI expected to remain below the BOE's target. This will give the central bank leeway to continue its accommodative policies

WEDNESDAY 21 May 2014
Japan- Bank of Japan Meeting No policy changes are expected. More QE in the future?

U.K.- Retail Sales. One of the key measures of the strength of the economy.  
U.K.- BOE Meeting Minutes. This is where we get the first hard information about the BOE Meeting two weeks ago. The key thing to watch for is the amount of "slack" in the economy. Managing potential non-inflationary growth has become a key BOE policy objective.

Eurozone- Consumer Confidence not a market mover, but  a useful sentiment barometer.

THURSDAY 22 May 2014
U.K.- GDP. The second revision to 1Q14 is not likely to be changed much. Unlikely to be a market mover.

Eurozone- flash May PMI's. Always closely followed, but we have not been seeing a reliable pass through of the PMI sentiment recently to hard data.

United States- Existing Homes Sales  the most important U.S. housing statistics. It is seem improving.

Canada- Retail Sales Key Canadian statistic, but it tend to be rather old. Seen weaker,

FRIDAY 23 May 2014
Germany- IFO survey.  Most important German sentiment survey and usually a market mover. Expected to improve

Canada- CPI Seen within the Bank of Canada target range. Such an outcome would dampen speculation for a rate cut.

36United States- New Homes Sales. Another piece of the housing picture. It is seen  improving. This is usually not a market mover. 

MONDAY 26 May 2016
UK & U.S.-  Holidays

Time   Country Title Cons Last
20/05/14 0:30 JP Trade JPYb n/a -1710
20/05/14 6:00 JP Lead Ind Mar f n/a 106.5
20/05/14 8:30 GB C-Out PPI y 0.70% 0.50%
20/05/14 8:30 GB CPI mm Apr 0.30% 0.20%
20/05/14 8:30 GB CPI yy 1.70% 1.60%
20/05/14 8:30 GB RPI-X 2.70% 2.50%
20/05/14 20:30 US API Energy n/a n/a
21/05/14 0:00 WEDNESDAY
21/05/14 2:45 CN HSBC flash PMI 48.3 48.1
21/05/14 4:30 JP Bank of Japan 0.10% 0.10%
21/05/14 8:30 GB BOE Minutes n/a n/a
21/05/14 8:30 GB Ret Sls mm Mar 0.40% 0.10%
21/05/14 8:30 GB Ret Sls yy 5.10% 4.20%
21/05/14 8:30 GB Ret Sls x-fuel mm 0.50% -0.40%
21/05/14 8:30 GB Ret Sls X-fuel yy 5.40% 4.20%
21/05/14 8:30 GB BOE Minutes n/a n/a
21/05/14 11:00 US WK Mortgage Stats n/a n/a
21/05/14 14:00 EZ Cons Conf Aprp -8.2 -8.6
21/05/14 14:30 US EIA Crude mn n/a 947
21/05/14 14:30 US EIA Gasoline mn n/a -770
21/05/14 14:30 US EIA Distillate mn n/a -1.12
21/05/14 14:30 US EIA Cap Util n/a 88.80%
22/05/14 0:00 THURSDAY
22/05/14 7:00 FR MFG PMI flash 51 51.2
22/05/14 7:00 FR SVC PMI flash 50.2 50.4
22/05/14 7:28 DE MFG PMI flash 54 54.1
22/05/14 7:28 DE SVC PMI flash 54.5 54.7
22/05/14 7:58 EZ Markit SVC PMI flash 53 53.1
22/05/14 7:58 EZ Markit MFG PMI flash 53.2 53.4
22/05/14 8:30 GB GDP 1Q14p QQ 0.80% 0.80%
22/05/14 8:30 GB GDP 1Q14p YY 3.10% 3.10%
22/05/14 10:00 GB CBI Ind Output Trends n/a 32
22/05/14 12:30 CA Retail Sales- Feb 0.20% 0.50%
22/05/14 12:30 CA Sales x-autos n/a 0.60%
22/05/14 12:30 US Cont Claims n/a 2.667
22/05/14 12:30 US Initial Claims 310 297
22/05/14 13:45 US MFG Markit PMI flash 55.5 55.4
22/05/14 14:00 US Lead Ind 0.30% 0.80%
22/05/14 14:00 US Existing Home 4.69 4.59
22/05/14 14:30 US Nat Gas bcf n/a 105

calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar  For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.

John M. BlandJohn M. Bland, is a founding partner of,  and an author. He has been an FX consultant for a money center. bank, a forex trader for a N.Y. institution, and a FX analyst for a top Fed watching service. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
Copyright 2013, GlobalViewpoint, Inc All rights reserved


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