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Tuesday May 20, 2014 - 03:24:37 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 20-May-2014 -0324 GMT

GOOD MORNING!

STOCKS
Except Nifty, nearly all the markets are in either a trendless market or in a trend without any momentum, no matter if it is up or down. That increases the probability of any surprise counter-trend move. Keep alert.

The Dow (16511.86, +0.12%) is not showing any great upward momentum despite a new life high made last week, which raises the possibility of another big fall before the next true phase of the bull market emerges. Keep an eye on 16400 for immediate support below which the current short term uptrend gets negated.

The Dax (9659.39, +0.31%) must break above the old high around 9800 levels to overcome the current weakness and resume the major uptrend. Till then, a retest of 9400 remains a distinct possibility.

The Nikkei (14100.77, +0.67%) remains in a downtrend on the back of a stronger Yen but the bearish momentum is not strong. The risk of testing the support of 13850 remains intact but keep an eye for any sharp spike up. The Shanghai (2012.66, +0.37%) is trying to bounce from our support of 1995 but requires a break above 2036-38 to weaken the bears even a little.

The boost to Nifty (7263.55, +0.84%) provided by banks and metal sector were mostly offset by the severe weakness seen in the CNX IT index as it reached our target of 8600 (mentioned on 8th May) today. We expect the consolidation to continue and a collapse of the volatility to see some much needed consolidation in the range of 6700-7500 for the next few days.

COMMODITIES
Gold and Silver remain range bound while Copper, Brent and WTI Crude potentially stronger.

Gold (1294.16) and Silver (19.377) continues to remain ranged within 1280-1315 and 19-19.7 regions respectively. Unless a break from these zones the metals may maintain the sideways consolidation for a few more sessions. Overall the long term downtrend is in force.

Copper (3.1635) is rallying towards 3.20-3.25 while in the near term uptrend. It may thereafter come off from channel resistance near 3.25 to test 3.10.

Brent (109.42) came off from just below 110.5 but while above 109 it may still target 112. WTI (102.17) is testing resistance near 102.6 which if holds may push it to 101. But if it manages to break and sustain above 102.6, it may target 103.6-103.7. The bulls look stronger for now.

FOREX
Keep an eye on the lows of the last week for all the pairs. Nearly all of them are important supports.

Dollar-Yen (101.54) briefly broke below the major support zone of 101.30-20 to make a low at 101.10 before bouncing back. It is a very crucial time as the bears must push it down to the next long term support at 100.70-60 or else they may run the risk of a sudden upward move anytime

The Euro-Yen (139.24) is in a confirmed major downtrend now. It is testing an important trendline Support here and could stage a bit of a bounce. But unless Resistance at 140 is broken, there could be chances of further fall to test 200-day MA at 137.94.

The Euro (1.3713) is trying to bounce from the major trendline support at 1.3646. Expect near-term Support at 1.3690 and attempts to rise towards 1.3760 while Support at 139.25 holds on the Euro-Yen.

The Pound (1.6817) has bounced sharply from 1.6731 and keeps the long-term uptrend intact. A break below 1.6730 could negate the uptrend and then a dip to sub-1.6600 levels would be on cards.

The Aussie (0.9306) is testing the lower end of its 2-week range of 0.93-0.94. Only a break below 0.9280-70 will negate the bullish possibility but a bounce from here may still take it to 0.95+.

Dollar-Rupee (58.59) tested and bounced from our support of 58.35 but the bearish momentum remains strong uptill 59.00 is broken on the upside. Keep an eye on 58.35 and 58.10 for supports.

INTEREST RATES
The US yields saw yet another rise yesterday as the 10-5Yr yield differential (1.00%) bounced from just near the support at 0.97%. A further rise in the differential up to the resistance near 1.05% can be expected. With the bounce in the yield differential we can expect the 10Yr (2.54%) to target 2.65%. The 5Yr (1.55%) remained stable and is trading just below resistance at current levels.

The German –US 2Yr spread (-0.26%) has remained stable as the Euro (1.3713) saw a slight rise from near the support at 1.37. A bounce in the Euro from here and we may see the spread go up to -0.20%. The German 10Yr (1.35%) is stable but the pressure on the ECB to reduce rates may keep it lower.

The US-Japan 10Yr yield differential (1.95%) remained stable as the Dollar-Yen (101.54) also remained stable testing support at current levels before the BOJ Meeting tomorrow morning. The BOJ is expected to maintain its current policy which is aimed at achieving a 2% inflation goal.

The 10Yr GOI (8.86%) is up as the US – India 10Yr bond differential (6.34%) rose further and can now target resistance near 6.40% -6.45%. And the 10Yr GOI can now target 9.00%.

DATA TODAY

8:30 GMT or 14:00 IST UK CPI Y/Y
...Expected 1.70 % ...Previous 1.60 %

DATA YESTERDAY
No major data release yesterday.

 

 

 

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