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Risk-Off Trade Prevails Tuesday. U.K. Inflation hotter than Seen. Data Calendar Heating up

Risk-Off Trade Prevails Tuesday. U.K. Inflation hotter than Seen. Data Calendar Heating up
May 21, 2014  00:00 gmt
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map

  • In late European and midday NY trading has slipped more decisively into a clear "risk-off" posture.
  • Prime fixed income markets are seeing yields broadly higher. Yields on bonds on the periphery of the Eurozone have moved  relatively even higher as funds move back into the prime markets from the periphery.
  • Equities rallied in the Far East, but European bourses turned  south   U.S. equity futures are currently trading weaker.
  • The U.S. 10-yr is 2.53%, 0bp.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflect yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off (red)

HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: CN- HSBC PMI, Bank of Japan. GB- Bank of England Minutes, Retail Sales, EZ- Consumer Confidence

Forex followed the ebb and flow of the risk-on/off trade  Comments from NY Fed President Dudley were read as more hawkish from him than might have been expected. Like "hawk" Plosser,"dove"  Dudley has a positive view of the economic recovery. This had equity markets a little worried about an earlier than expected Fed policy tightening.  Fed Chair Yellen speaks Wednesday at the NYU graduation ceremony. We don't expect her to make a policy comment at this event.

Equities softness.also appeared to come out of the EURJPY cross. We had heard last week reports that Russia and China had been moving reserves out of the EUR and into the JPY. We have not been able to confirm the reports. The EURUSD is now trading below the 1.3700 level. At 101.31, the USDJPY in range of its 101.26 200-day moving average.

U.K. data will be a feature all week. CPI/RPI data out Tuesday were a touch hotter than expected but are not expected to have policy implications.  The BOE has focused more recently on the amount of "slack" in the economy than its official inflation targets. See the
FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.

Five Day Trading Planner

WEDNESDAY 21 May 2014
- - Bank of Japan Meeting No policy changes are expected. More QE in the future?

United Kingdom.
- - Retail Sales. One of the key measures of the strength of the economy.  
- - BOE Meeting Minutes. This is where we get the first hard information about the BOE Meeting two weeks ago. The key thing to watch for is the amount of "slack" in the economy. Managing potential non-inflationary growth has become a key BOE policy objective.

- - Consumer Confidence not a market mover, but  a useful sentiment barometer.

United States-
- - FRB Chair Yellen: Commencement Address at NYU. Don't expect much. This is not the venue.
- - FOMC Minutes: Further detail on the April 29-30 policy decision.

THURSDAY 22 May 2014
.- - GDP. The second revision to 1Q14 is not likely to be changed much. Unlikely to be a market mover.

- - flash May PMI's. Always closely followed, but we have not been seeing a reliable pass through of the PMI sentiment recently to hard data.

United States:
- - Existing Homes Sales  the most important U.S. housing statistics. It is seem improving.

- - Retail Sales Key Canadian statistic, but it tend to be rather old. Seen weaker,

FRIDAY 23 May 2014
- - IFO survey.  Most important German sentiment survey and usually a market mover. Consensus: mixed to weaker

- - CPI Seen within the Bank of Canada target range. Such an outcome would dampen speculation for a rate cut.

United States:
- -  New Homes Sales. Another piece of the housing picture. It is seen  improving. This is usually not a market mover. 

MONDAY 26 May 2016
UK & U.S
.- -  Holidays

TUESDAY 27 May 2016
Canada- GDP
United States- Durable Goods/ Capacity Utilization, Case Shiller, Markit Service PMI, Richmond Fed Survey, Conference Board  Survey, 2-yr Auction, Fed Minutes

WEDNESDAY 28 May 2016
United States- 5-yr Auction.

Time   Country Title Cons Last
20/05/14 20:30 US API Energy n/a n/a
21/05/14 2:45 CN HSBC flash PMI 48.3 48.1
21/05/14 4:30 JP Bank of Japan 0.10% 0.10%
21/05/14 8:30 GB BOE Minutes n/a n/a
21/05/14 8:30 GB Ret Sls mm Mar 0.40% 0.10%
21/05/14 8:30 GB Ret Sls yy 5.10% 4.20%
21/05/14 8:30 GB Ret Sls x-fuel mm 0.50% -0.40%
21/05/14 8:30 GB Ret Sls X-fuel yy 5.40% 4.20%
21/05/14 11:00 US WK Mortgage Stats n/a n/a
21/05/14 14:00 EZ Cons Conf Aprp -8.2 -8.6
21/05/14 14:30 US EIA Crude mn n/a 947
21/05/14 14:30 US EIA Gasoline mn n/a -770
21/05/14 14:30 US EIA Distillate mn n/a -1.12
21/05/14 14:30 US EIA Cap Util n/a 88.80%
21/05/14 15:30 FRB Yellen n/a n/a
21/05/14 18:00 FRB Fed Minutes n/a n/a
22/05/14 0:00 THURSDAY
22/05/14 7:00 FR MFG PMI flash 51 51.2
22/05/14 7:00 FR SVC PMI flash 50.2 50.4
22/05/14 7:28 DE MFG PMI flash 54 54.1
22/05/14 7:28 DE SVC PMI flash 54.5 54.7
22/05/14 7:58 EZ Markit SVC PMI flash 53 53.1
22/05/14 7:58 EZ Markit MFG PMI flash 53.2 53.4
22/05/14 8:30 GB GDP 1Q14p QQ 0.80% 0.80%
22/05/14 8:30 GB GDP 1Q14p YY 3.10% 3.10%
22/05/14 10:00 GB CBI Ind Output Trends n/a 32
22/05/14 12:30 CA Retail Sales- Feb 0.20% 0.50%
22/05/14 12:30 CA Sales x-autos n/a 0.60%
22/05/14 12:30 US Cont Claims n/a 2.667
22/05/14 12:30 US Initial Claims 310 297
22/05/14 13:45 US MFG Markit PMI flash 55.5 55.4
22/05/14 14:00 US Lead Ind 0.30% 0.80%
22/05/14 14:00 US Existing Home 4.69 4.59
22/05/14 14:30 US Nat Gas bcf n/a 105
23/05/14 0:00 FRIDAY
23/05/14 0:00 US Early Close n/a n/a
23/05/14 8:00 DE IFO Current 110.9 115.3
23/05/14 8:00 DE IFO Expectations 106.6 107.3
23/05/14 8:00 DE IFO Climate 110.9 111.2
23/05/14 12:30 CA BOC CPI Apr y n/a 1.30%
23/05/14 12:30 CA CPI mm 0.30% 0.30%
23/05/14 12:30 CA CPI yy 2.00% 1.50%
23/05/14 14:00 US New Home Sales 423 384
23/05/14 19:30 US COT Report n/a n/a

calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar  For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.

John M. BlandJohn M. Bland, is a founding partner of,  and an author. He has been an FX consultant for a money center. bank, a forex trader for a N.Y. institution, and a FX analyst for a top Fed watching service. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
Copyright 2013, GlobalViewpoint, Inc All rights reserved


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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Tue 12 Dec
09:30 GB- CPI
10:00 GB- ZEW Survey
13:30 US- PPI
Wed 13 Dec
00:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Unemployment
13:30 US- CPI
15:30 US- EIA Crude
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07:30 CH- SNB Decision
All Day- Global- flash PMIs
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12:45 EZ- ECB Decision
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13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:45 US- Industrial Production

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Tue--10:00 GMT-- DE- ZEW. Second Tier Sentiment Survey

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Wed--09:30 GMT-- GB- Employment
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed--15:30 GMT-- US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High Wed--19:00 GMT-- US- Fed Decision

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Thu --00:30 GMT-- AU- Employment
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Thu --All day-- global- flash PMIs
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --07:30-- CH- Swiss National Bank Decision
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --09:30-- GB- Retail Sales
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