User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Wednesday May 21, 2014 - 03:43:18 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

Morning Briefing : 21-May-2014 -0342 GMT

GOOD MORNING!

STOCKS
BOJ keeps the monetary policy unchanged which really didnít affect the markets. Except Nifty, nearly all the markets are in either a trendless market or in a trend without any momentum, no matter if it is up or down. That increases the probability of any surprise counter-trend move. Keep alert.

The Dow (16374.31, -0.83%) has negated the uptrend as expected. A break below 16350-300 may signal further fall to 16000 levels where the price action could indicate if it is an Expanding Triangle or not.

The Dax (9639.08, -0.21%) must break above the old high around 9800 levels to overcome the current weakness and resume the major uptrend. Till then, a retest of 9400 remains a distinct possibility.

The Nikkei (14036.20, -0.28%) remains in a downtrend but the bearish momentum is not strong even after the BOJ policy announcement. The risk of testing the support of 13850 remains intact but keep an eye for any sharp spike up. The Shanghai (2016.93, +0.44%) is trying to bounce from our support of 1995 but requires a break above 2036-38 to weaken the bears even a little.

Nifty (7275.50, +0.16%) structure hints at further correction towards 7100 and 6900 but in this kind of a bull market where the hot money is searching for every possible avenue to enter, as evident from the spurt even in the junk stocks; one runs the risk of seeing sudden spike on the upside while waiting for the correction to end.

COMMODITIES
Metals are stable while the Oil market may strengthen in the near term. Need to look at crucial resistance in Gold and Silver on the daily charts.

Gold (1294.149) and Silver (19.432) are stable for now and may continue to remain ranged but are currently testing channel resistance near current levels. The Gold-Silver ratio (66.55) has been overall rising since mid-Feb'2014 and may target higher towards 67.50 in the near term. This may suggest a near term rise in Gold while Silver may remain range-bound. Overall long term trend is down.

Copper (3.1410) bounced from support near 3.11 and continues to rally towards 3.20-3.25 while in the near term uptrend. It may thereafter come off from channel resistance near 3.25 to test 3.10.

Brent (109.87) is on a rise targeting 110.58 in the near term while WTI (102.91) may head towards 105.2 if it breaks 103.7 in the near term. Near term is bullish for now.

FOREX
Keep an eye on the lows of the last week for all the pairs. Nearly all of them are important supports.

Dollar-Yen (101.21) made a low at 101.10 near the major support of 101.20. It is a crucial time as the bears must push it down to the long term support at 100.70-60 or else they may run the risk of a sudden upward move anytime.

The Euro-Yen (138.70) is in a confirmed major downtrend now. It is testing an important Support here around 138.70-30 and could attempt a bit of a bounce. But unless Resistance at 140 is broken, there could be chances of further fall to test 200-day MA at 137.94 or even lower towards 136.

The Euro (1.3702) is showing no evidence of strength even after holding above the support of 1.3650. Though the possibility of rise still survives above 1.3650, expect more vertical fall towards sub-1.35 on a break below 1.3650.

The Pound (1.6840) has bounced sharply from 1.6731 and keeps the long-term uptrend intact. But a break below 1.6730 could negate the uptrend and then a dip to sub-1.6600 levels would be on cards.

The Aussie (0.9233) has broken below 0.93 sharply and currently testing the major support area of 0.9200-0.9150. But the current structure hints at possible downmove towards 0.8950 on a break below 0.9150.

For Dollar-Rupee (58.63), keep an eye on 58.55-50 tomorrow. The bounce may still extend to 58.90-59.00 if Dollar Rupee manages to stay above it this morning. Below 58.50, the downtrend may resume its power.

INTEREST RATES
The US 10-5Yr yield differential (1.01%) remained stable after the bounce from the support at 0.97% but the US yields saw a drop. The 5Yr (1.51%) came off from the resistance near 1.55% and may target lower levels and the 10Yr (2.52%) is trading below resistance but a further rise in the differential can take the 10Yr higher.

The German ĖUS 2Yr spread (-0.25%) has remained stable as the Euro (1.3702) continues to test the support near 1.37. A bounce in the Euro from here and we may see the spread go up to -0.20%. The German 10Yr (1.35%) remained unchanged and may target lower levels of 1.25%-1.20%.

The BOJ Monetary Policy Meeting just concluded and no changes were made in the policy as expected. The US-Japan 10Yr yield differential (1.92%) is down after the slight drop in the US yields and is now trading below the 55 week MA and can target 1.85%.

The 10Yr GOI (8.86%) remained unchanged after the bounce from the 200 Day MA support last week. The MIBOR (See http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/mibor.shtml#mibor) and the MIFOR (See http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/mifor.shtml#mifor) are also testing important long term trend support at current levels and can rise from here. So the chances of a fall in the Interest Rates are very less.

DATA TODAY

3:00 GMT or 8:30 IST BOJ Meeting
...Expected <0.10 % ...Previous <0.10 % ...Actual <0.10 %

8:30 GMT or 14:00 IST UK BOE Minutes
...Expected 0-0-9 % ...Previous 0-0-9 %

DATA YESTERDAY

UK CPI Y/Y
...Expected 1.70 % ...Previous 1.60 % ...Actual 2.00 %

 

 

 

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 20 November 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Mon 20 Nov
14:00 EZ- Draghi Speech
15:00 US- Leading Indicators
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105