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Wednesday May 21, 2014 - 09:09:15 GMT -

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U.K. Retail Sales Data Much Stronger than Expected. No Surprises from BOJ or BOE.

U.K. Retail Sales Data Much Stronger than Expected. No Surprises from BOJ or BOE.
May 21, 2014  09:30 gmt
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map

  • In early European trade markets are taking a generally neutral posture.
  • Prime fixed income markets are mixed with no clear pattern evident. Yields on bonds on the periphery of the Eurozone have moved  relatively even higher.
  • Equities rallied modestly in the Far East, but European bourses are slightly lower  U.S. equity futures are currently trading higher.
  • The U.S. 10-yr is 2.51%, 0bp.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflect yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off (red)

HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: EZ- Consumer Confidence

April U.K. ex-fuel Retail Sales data saw the largest monthly increase since 2004. The data were helped by the late Easter holiday this year, but the data were far better than forecast. The GBP rallied on the news. Key Bank of England monetary policy votes were both unanimous in favor of an unchanged policy. Markets were looking for any signs of developing dissent, but there were not. See the
FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen. .

The Bank of Japan kept policy steady as widely expected today. The central bank persisted in its constructive outlook for the future of the economy. Most observers are expecting no changes in policy for the balance of the year as it will take a while to fully assess the lasting impact of the April 1 sales tax increase.

 Fed Chair Yellen speaks Wednesday at the NYU graduation ceremony. We don't expect her to make a policy comment at this event.  U.K. remains a feature with second revisions to GDP due Thursday. Flash PMI data from several key economies are due on Thursday as well.

Five Day Trading Planner

WEDNESDAY 21 May 2014

- - Consumer Confidence not a market mover, but  a useful sentiment barometer.

United States-
- - FRB Chair Yellen: Commencement Address at NYU. Don't expect much. This is not the venue.
- - FOMC Minutes: Further detail on the April 29-30 policy decision.

THURSDAY 22 May 2014
.- - GDP. The second revision to 1Q14 is not likely to be changed much. Unlikely to be a market mover.

- - flash May PMI's. Always closely followed, but we have not been seeing a reliable pass through of the PMI sentiment recently to hard data.

United States:
- - Existing Homes Sales  the most important U.S. housing statistics. It is seen improving.

- - Retail Sales Key Canadian statistic, but it tend to be rather old. Seen weaker,

FRIDAY 23 May 2014
- - IFO survey.  Most important German sentiment survey and usually a market mover. Consensus: mixed to weaker

- - CPI Seen within the Bank of Canada target range. Such an outcome would dampen speculation for a rate cut.

United States:
- -  New Homes Sales. Another piece of the housing picture. It is seen  improving. This is usually not a market mover. 

MONDAY 26 May 2016
UK & U.S
.- -  Holidays

TUESDAY 27 May 2016
Canada- GDP
United States- Durable Goods/ Capacity Utilization, Case Shiller, Markit Service PMI, Richmond Fed Survey, Conference Board  Survey, 2-yr Auction, Fed Minutes

WEDNESDAY 28 May 2016
United States- 5-yr Auction.

Time   Country Title Cons Last
21/05/14 11:00 US WK Mortgage Stats n/a n/a
21/05/14 14:00 EZ Cons Conf Aprp -8.2 -8.6
21/05/14 14:30 US EIA Crude mn 1000 947
21/05/14 14:30 US EIA Gasoline mn 0 -770
21/05/14 14:30 US EIA Distillate mn 0 -1.12
21/05/14 14:30 US EIA Cap Util n/a 88.80%
21/05/14 15:30 FRB Yellen n/a n/a
21/05/14 18:00 FRB Fed Minutes n/a n/a
22/05/14 0:00 THURSDAY
22/05/14 7:00 FR MFG PMI flash 51 51.2
22/05/14 7:00 FR SVC PMI flash 50.2 50.4
22/05/14 7:28 DE MFG PMI flash 54 54.1
22/05/14 7:28 DE SVC PMI flash 54.5 54.7
22/05/14 7:58 EZ Markit SVC PMI flash 53 53.1
22/05/14 7:58 EZ Markit MFG PMI flash 53.2 53.4
22/05/14 8:30 GB GDP 1Q14p QQ 0.80% 0.80%
22/05/14 8:30 GB GDP 1Q14p YY 3.10% 3.10%
22/05/14 10:00 GB CBI Ind Output Trends n/a 32
22/05/14 12:30 CA Retail Sales- Feb 0.20% 0.50%
22/05/14 12:30 CA Sales x-autos n/a 0.60%
22/05/14 12:30 US Cont Claims n/a 2.667
22/05/14 12:30 US Initial Claims 310 297
22/05/14 13:45 US MFG Markit PMI flash 55.5 55.4
22/05/14 14:00 US Lead Ind 0.30% 0.80%
22/05/14 14:00 US Existing Home 4.69 4.59
22/05/14 14:30 US Nat Gas bcf n/a 105
23/05/14 0:00 FRIDAY
23/05/14 0:00 US Early Close n/a n/a
23/05/14 8:00 DE IFO Current 110.9 115.3
23/05/14 8:00 DE IFO Expectations 106.6 107.3
23/05/14 8:00 DE IFO Climate 110.9 111.2
23/05/14 12:30 CA BOC CPI Apr y n/a 1.30%
23/05/14 12:30 CA CPI mm 0.30% 0.30%
23/05/14 12:30 CA CPI yy 2.00% 1.50%
23/05/14 14:00 US New Home Sales 423 384
23/05/14 19:30 US COT Report n/a n/a

calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar  For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.

John M. BlandJohn M. Bland, is a founding partner of,  and an author. He has been an FX consultant for a money center. bank, a forex trader for a N.Y. institution, and a FX analyst for a top Fed watching service. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 12 Nov 2018
AA CA/US Holiday
Tue 13 Nov 2018
AA 09:30 GB- Employment
A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 14 Nov 2018
AA 09:30 GB- CPI
AA 09:30 EZ- GDP
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 15 Nov 2018
A 01:30 AU- Employment
AA 09:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 16 Nov 2018
AA 10:00 EZ- Final HICP
A 14:15 US- Ind Prod/Cap Util

John M. Bland, MBA
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