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No Surprises from Fed Minutes. Strong U.K. Retail Sales. BOJ and BOE in Line
|No Surprises from Fed Minutes. Strong U.K. Retail Sales. BOJ and BOE in Line|
May 22, 2014 00:00 gmt
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map
- Late European trade markets are taking increasingly a "risk-on "posture.
- Yields in prime fixed income markets are higher as equities rise. Yields on bonds on the periphery of the Eurozone have fallen sharply..
- Equities rallied modestly in the Far East earlier. European bourses are now broadly higher. U.S. equities are currently trading higher across the board.
- The U.S. 10-yr is 2.54%, +3bp.
The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflect yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off (red)
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: CN- HSBC PMI, EZ/DE/FR- flash Mfg & SVC PMIs, GB- GDP, CA- Retail Sales, US- Weekly Jobs, flash Mfg PMI, Existing Homes Sales, Lead Indicators, Nat Gas
The latest Fed policy meeting minutes were dovish, as widely anticipated. They reinforced the common view that the central Bank is not in any rush to raise interest rates.
Fed he April U.K. ex-fuel Retail Sales data saw the largest monthly increase since 2004. The data were helped by the late Easter holiday this year, but the data were far better than forecast. The GBP rallied on the news. Key Bank of England monetary policy votes were both unanimous in favor of an unchanged policy. Markets were looking for any signs of developing dissent, but there were not. See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and comments from experienced traders to events as they happen. .
The Bank of Japan kept policy steady as widely expected today. The central bank persisted in its constructive outlook for the future of the economy. Most observers are expecting no changes in policy for the balance of the year as it will take a while to fully assess the lasting impact of the April 1 sales tax increase.
U.K. remains a feature with second revisions to GDP due Thursday. Flash PMI data from several key economies are due on Thursday as well. A key feature from the U.S. will be Existing Homes sales, the broadest measure of the housing market.
Five Day Trading Planner
WEDNESDAY 21 May 2014
- - Consumer Confidence not a market mover, but a useful sentiment barometer.
- - FRB Chair Yellen: Commencement Address at NYU. Don't expect much. This is not the venue.
- - FOMC Minutes: Further detail on the April 29-30 policy decision.
THURSDAY 22 May 2014
.- - GDP. The second revision to 1Q14 is not likely to be changed much. Unlikely to be a market mover.
- - flash May PMI's. Always closely followed, but we have not been seeing a reliable pass through of the PMI sentiment recently to hard data.
- - Existing Homes Sales the most important U.S. housing statistics. It is seen improving.
- - Retail Sales Key Canadian statistic, but it tend to be rather old. Seen weaker,
FRIDAY 23 May 2014
- - IFO survey. Most important German sentiment survey and usually a market mover. Consensus: mixed to weaker
- - CPI Seen within the Bank of Canada target range. Such an outcome would dampen speculation for a rate cut.
- - New Homes Sales. Another piece of the housing picture. It is seen improving. This is usually not a market mover.
MONDAY 26 May 2016
UK & U.S
.- - Holidays
TUESDAY 27 May 2016
United States- Durable Goods/ Capacity Utilization, Case Shiller, Markit Service PMI, Richmond Fed Survey, Conference Board Survey, 2-yr Auction, Fed Minutes
WEDNESDAY 28 May 2016
United States- 5-yr Auction.
Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.
John M. Bland, is a founding partner of Global-View.com, and an author. He has been an FX consultant for a money center. bank, a forex trader for a N.Y. institution, and a FX analyst for a top Fed watching service. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes
Potential Trading Opportunities
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release
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