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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Trichet in favor of lower interest rates; Major European PMIs mixed


Thu, 22 May 2014 5:23 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Greece banks seeing new mortgage loan demand low but candidate quality high; expect 500-600M in new mortgages in 2014 - Greek press
- Unilever confirmed sale of North American pasta sauce business under Ragu and Bertolli brands to Mazkin for $2.15B
- Russia Central Bank: Lowers target interventions amid lower volatility observed on the domestic foreign exchange market; to maintain its monetary policy
- SABMiller reports FY results pretax and EBITDA came in stronger, while Rev was nearly $1.0B lower y/y (Pretax $4.82B v $4.68B y/y, EBITDA $6.45B v $6.44Be, Rev $22.3B v $23.2B y/y)
- Former ECB Head Trichet said the central bank should signal that interest rates should be lower, including possible negative deposit rates - Austrian Press
- FOMC minutes showed the Fed openly discussing its options for policy normalization, but without signaling anything imminent.
- (CN) China May HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI remained in contraction territory but hit a 5-month High with new Export Orders at 3 year highs (49.7 vs. 48.3e); signs of economic stabilization
- Japan Post Insurance (Kampo) said to plan to raise its investments in Japanese stocks and foreign bonds by more than 50% in the current fiscal year (**Note: In line with the investment plans of Japan's GPIF pension fund)
- Major European PMI Manufacturing come in below expectations while PMI Services were mixed; Euro Zone and German remain in expansion territory while France slips back into contraction
- UK 2nd reading of Q1 GDP was in line but some concerns over weaker components inside the report

***Equities***
- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open higher following positive leads from the US and Japan as peripheral bonds gained at open, Markets later pare gains as the Italy FTSE MIB underperforms (prior session's outperformer), Resource related names rise following China PMI, SABMiller's shares supported by better than expected profits, Austrian bank Raiffeisen rises on better than expected results, France Manufacturing PMI moves back into contraction territory, FOMC minutes did not cover any possible timing for rate hike as some officials cautious on the sustainability of growth and housing market, Upcoming US retailer earnings (Best Buy, Sears)

- Indices [Stoxx50 -0.3%, FTSE 100 +0.1% at 6,830, DAX +0.1% at 9,707, CAC-40 -0.2% at 4,460, IBEX-35 -0.3% at 10,502, FTSE MIB -0.8% at 20,430, SMI flat at 8,660, S&P 500 Futures +0.1% at 1,886]

***By Sector***
- Consumer Discretionary [Mothercare MTC.UK +16% (Q1 results above ests), Daily Mail DMGT.UK +5% (H1 profits rose, asset sale), Halfords HFD.UK +5% (FY sales rose), SABMiller SAB.UK +3.5% (FY profits above ests)]
- Financials [Raiffeisen Bank RBI.AT +4% (Q1 results above ests)]
- Basic Materials/Resources [Kloeckner KCO.DE +3% (broker commentary)]
- Technology [Imagination Technologies IMG.UK +6% (agreement with Oracle); Logitech LOGN.CH -3% (accounting probe)]
- Industrials [Royal Mail RMG.UK -5% (FY profits below ests)]
- Energy [Shell RDSA.UK +1% (buyback-related commentary)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Utilities +0.7%, Consumer Cyclical +0.4%, Basic Materials +0.4%, Industrials +0.2%, Financials +0.1%, Technology flat; Consumer Non-Cyclical -0.4%, Telecom -0.1%, Energy -0.1%]

***Currencies/Fixed Income***
- Risk appetite picked up during the Asian session following a much stronger than expected China PMI Manufacturing release but hit some speed bumps during the European morning as the major PMI readings came in mixed at best.
- The USD/JPY recovered from its 3-month lows from Wed to move above 101.50. The yen continued its inverse correlation with risk appetite and stock market direction. Dealers noting that BoJs Amamiya was seen being asked to stay on for a second term and he is a specialist in QE.
- The GBP currency was softer following the 2nd reading of its Q1 GDP data. Dealers cited that weaker components attributed to the softer currency (both imports and exports were negative q/q) coupled with higher deficit in public finance data. GBP/USD dipped from 1.6902 to test 1.6870 after the data release.

***Economic Data***
- (DE) Germany March Real NSA Construction Orders Y/Y: +5.6% v +3.2% prior
- (FR) France May Business Confidence: 94 v 94e; Manufacturing Confidence: 99 v 100e; Production Outlook Indicator: -13 v -12e; Own-Company Production Outlook: 4 v 11 prior
- (FR) France May Preliminary Manufacturing PMI: 49.3 v 51.0e (first contraction in 3 months and lowest reading since Jan); Services PMI: 49.2 v 50.4e (first contraction in 3 months and lowest reading since Feb); Composite PMI: 49.3 v 50.5e
- (DK) Denmark Apr Retail Sales M/M: 0.1% v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: +2.6% v -0.3% prior
- (EU) ECB 35M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 4.0M prior; 18.7B parked in deposit facility vs. 21.0B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (DE) Germany May Preliminary Manufacturing PMI: 52.9 v 54.0e; Services PMI: 56.4 v 54.5e; Composite PMI: 56.1 v 56.0e
- (EU) Euro Zone May Preliminary Manufacturing PMI: 52.5 v 53.2e; Services PMI: 53.5 v 53.0e; Composite PMI: 53.9 v 53.9e
- (NO) Norway Mar AKU Unemployment Rate: 3.3% v 3.5%e
- (GR) Greece Mar Current Account Balance: -44M v -300Me
- (UK) Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.8% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: 3.1% v 3.1%e
- (UK) Q1 Preliminary Private Consumption Q/Q: 0.8% v 0.6%e; Government Spending Q/Q: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Gross Fixed Capital Formation Q/Q: 0.6% v 1.2%e; Exports Q/Q: -1.0% v 0.0%e; Imports Q/Q: -1.1% v 0.2%e
- (UK) Q1 Preliminary Total Business Investment Q/Q: % v 2.2%e; Y/Y: % v 8.7% prior
- (UK) Apr Public Finances (PSNCR): -10.6B v 15.7B prior; PSNB ex Interventions: 7.4B v 4.8Be; Public Sector Net Borrowing: 9,6B v 3.4Be; Central Government NCR: 1.9B v 22.7B prior; PSNB ex Royal Mail, APF: 11.5B v 8.4Be
- (UK) Mar Index of Services M/M: 0.4% v 0.3%e; 3M/3M: 0.9% v 0.9%e
- (HK) Hong Kong Apr CPI Composite Y/Y: 3.7% v 3.6%e
- (IS) Iceland Apr Wage Index M/M: 0.7 v 1.0% prior; Y/Y: 4.8 v 4.4% prior


***Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)

- (EU) European Parliament Elections take Place Throughout EU (through Sat)
- (RU)) St. Petersburg International Economic (through Sat)
- (EU) Nato Chief of Staffs meeting
- (PT) Portugal Mar Current Account Balance: No est v -279.3M prior
- (PT) Portugal Year-to-Date Budget Report
- (AR) Argentina May Consumer Confidence Index: No est v 36.69 prior
- 06:00 (IL) Israel Mar Manufacturing Production M/M: No est v 3.4% prior
- 06:00 (UK) May CBI Industrial Trends Total Orders: +3e v -1 prior; Selling Prices: 10e v 9 prior
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Apr PPI M/M: No est v -0.6% prior; Y/Y: No est v -3.1% prior
- 06:00 (PL) Poland Central Bank Gov Belka in Lisbon
- 06:00 (ES) ECB's Linde (Spain) in Madrid
- 06:30 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel with EU President Van Rompuy in Berlin
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e May 16th: No est v $471.1B prior
- 07:00 (TR) Turkey Central Bank (CBRT) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Key Rates unchanged; Expected to leave Benchmark Repurchase Rate unchanged at 10.00%; Expected leave Overnight Lending Rate unchanged at 12.00%; Expected to leave Overnight Borrowing Rate unchanged at 8.00%
- 07:00 (RO) Romania to sell RON500M in Bonds
- 08:00 (EU) NATO's Breedlove press conference following Chief of Staffs meeting
- 08:00 (RU) Russia Apr Unemployment Rate: 5.4%e v 5.4% prior
- 08:00 (RU) Russia Apr Real Retail Sales M/M: 0.0%e v 8.5% prior; Y/Y: 3.7%e v 4.0% prior
- 08:00 (RU) Russia Apr Real Wages Y/Y: 2.5%e v 3.1% prior
- 08:00 (RU) Russia Apr Real Disposable Income: -5.0%e v -6.8% prior
- 08:00 (RU) Russia Apr Investment in Productive Capacity: -4.7%e v -4.3% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) Minutes of Rate Meeting
- 08:00 (BR) Brazil Apr Unemployment Rate: 5.2%e v 5.0% prior
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk
- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 310Ke v 297K prior; Continuing Claims: 2.68Me v 2.667M prior
- 08:30 (US) Apr Chicago Fed National Activity Index: 0.00e v 0.20 prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Mar Retail Sales M/M: 0.3%e v 0.5% prior; Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M: 0.3%e v 0.6% prior
- 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales
- 09:00 (ZA) South Africa Central Bank (SARB) Gov Marcus press conference ahead of rate decision
- 09:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel speech at German Construction Industry Congress
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Apr Unemployment Rate NSA: 4.8%e v 4.8% prior; Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adj): 4.9%e v 5.3% prior
- (ZA) South Africa Central Bank (SARB) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Interest Rates unchanged at 5.50%
- 09:45 (US) May Preliminary Markit US Manufacturing PMI: 55.5e v 55.4 prior
- 10:00 (US) Apr Existing Home Sales: 4.69Me v 4.59M prior
- 10:00 (US) Apr Leading Index: 0.4%e v 0.8% prior
- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- 11:00 (US) May Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity: 7e v 7 prior
- 11:00 (US) Treasury refunding announcement
- 11:00 (BR) Brazil to sell 2015, 2016 and 2018 Bills
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $0.85-1.10B in Notes
- 13:00 (EU) EU President Van Rompuy in Belgium
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $13B in 10-Year TIPS Reopening
- 15:00 (US) API Monthly Statistical Report
- 16:00 (US) Fed's Williams in SF

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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