User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Friday May 23, 2014 - 03:29:10 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

Morning Briefing : 23-May-2014 -0329 GMT

GOOD MORNING!

STOCKS
It is a quiet day so far for the markets with neither the military coup in Thailand nor the Ukrainian unrest producing any ripples. Most of the markets are in a short term range but keep an eye on Nikkei for a possible bullish reversal.

The Dow (16543.08, +0.06%) is moving sideways in the range of 16300-16600 as expected after bouncing from the support zone of 16350-300. The downtrend is not reversed yet and we may expect the sideways to continue.

The Dax (9720.91, +0.24%) keeps trading in 9500-9800 but it must break above 9800 to overcome the current weakness and resume the major uptrend. Till then, a retest of 9400 remains a distinct possibility.

The Nikkei (14476.22, +0.97%) is at a 4-week high and now a break above 16650 may trigger a short term reversal and a rally towards 15200-300 or even higher. The Shanghai (2019.13, -0.11%) couldn’t advance beyond 2042 and came down. The sideways move in the broader range of 1990-2080 may continue for some more time in a base-building process. Supports are at 2010-1990.

Nifty (7276.40, +0.32%) may have made a very important top at 7563 which may not be broken soon. Still the bears would need a break below 7200-7190 and then finally 7080 to really confirm the loss of bullish momentum. The structure doesn’t yet support any fast rise but we keep an eye on any possible base development.

COMMODITIES
Precious metals are consolidating sideways while Copper is on a rally upwards. Crude oils may see some near term correction before resuming the rise further.

Gold (1294.96) tried to rise above 1300 but came back to test channel support near 1290 as Dollar strengthens against major currencies. Near term consolidation may continue but further direction cannot be ensured unless a sustainable break on either side of the 1280-1310 regions is seen.

Silver (19.443) is stable for now and while below 19.66, it may range within 19-19.5 levels.

Copper (3.1415) has bounced from support near 3.12 and may target 3.20-3.25 while above 3.15. The upward rally may continue as the recent uptrend is in force.

Brent (110.37) came off after making an intra-day high at 111.04 and if this holds we may see a danger of a sharp fall to 109-108 levels. Else, a rise above 110.58 would take it higher to 112. Need to keep an eye on the levels. Overall longterm uptrend persists.

Nymex WTI (103.68) is on a steady rise and if this continues it may target 105.22 in the near term. But there is also a possibility of a fall from current levels as it is testing resistance on the weekly charts. There might be little correction before resuming the rise towards 105.22.

FOREX
Though not that successful against the EM currencies like Rupee or Real, Dollar is strengthening against nearly all major currencies now. Keep an eye on the lows of the last week for all the pairs. Nearly all of them are important supports.

The Euro (1.3651) keeps trading at a 3-month low and any bounce is expected to face selling pressure. It is testing a minor swing low at 1.3630 to keep the possibility of a rise alive but more fall is to be expected towards sub-1.35 as long as it stays below 1.3800.

Dollar-Yen (101.78) bears failed to break the long term support of 100.70-60 and got hit by a sharp bounce as expected. A break above 101.75-102.00 may bring back uptrend and extend the rally further towards 103.00.

The Euro-Yen (138.94) is testing an important Support here around 138.70-30 and could attempt a bit of a bounce. But unless Resistance at 140 is broken, there could be chances of further fall to test 200-day MA at 137.94 or even lower towards 136.

The Pound (1.6869), the strongest among the major currencies now, looks set for further rise to 1.70-71 as long it trades above 1.6730. Only a break below 1.6730 could negate the uptrend and then a dip to sub-1.6600 levels would be on cards.

The Aussie (0.9247) is trying to stay above the major support area of 0.9200-0.9150 after the sharp fall. But the current structure hints at more downmove towards 0.8950 on a break below 0.9150.

Dollar-Rupee (58.4675) looks set to hit a new low below 58.37 and on a break of 58.35, may test the major support zone of 58.10-57.90 soon. 58.85-90 and 59.20-30 remains the most important resistance area to keep under watch on any bounce.

INTEREST RATES
The US yields saw a good rise yesterday. While the 10Yr (2.56%) has broken above the resistance near 2.53%, the 5Yr (1.55%) is trading at the crucial resistance zone at current levels as seen in the daily charts. The 30Yr (3.42%) has bounced from the support at 3.38%. With the yield spreads on a steady rise (30-10Yr at 0.87%, 10-5Yr at 1.01% and the 30-5Yr at 1.87%) after bouncing from long term supports in the 1st week of May we can expect the yields to rise.

The German –US 2Yr spread (-0.27%) trades lower as the Euro (1.3651) continues its fall towards support near 1.36 as seen the line charts. The German 10Yr (1.37%) was unchanged and may target 1.45% if it is able to maintain the rise otherwise a fall to 1.25%-1.20% can be expected.

The US-Japan 10Yr yield differential (1.96%) continues to rise today also, testing the 55 Week MA support at current levels and can rise further up as the Dollar-Yen (101.78) saw a good rise from the lows near 100.81. The Japan 10Yr (0.60%) has come to test resistance at current levels and may target 0.62-0.63% if the resistance breaks.

Contrary to our expectations of a bounce from current levels, both the 10Yr GOI (8.71%) and the Indo-US 10Yr yield spread (6.16%) have broken below the supports mentioned yesterday. We see a support coming up for the yield spread near 6.10% and can expect a bounce from there.

DATA TODAY

8:00 GMT or 13:30 IST GER IFO Business Climate
...Expected 111.00 ...Previous 111.20

8:00 GMT or 13:30 IST GER IFO Business Situations
...Expected 115.60 ...Previous 115.30

8:00 GMT or 13:30 IST GER IFO Business Expectations
...Expected 106.90 ...Previous 107.30

14:00 GMT or 19:30 IST US New Home Sales
...Expected 426 K ...Previous 384 K

12:30 GMT or 18:00 IST CA Inflation Y/Y
...Previous - 1.30 %

DATA YESTERDAY

CN Manufacturing PMI (P)
...Expected 48.10 ...Previous 48.10 ...Actual 49.70

UK GDP
...Expected 0.80 % ...Previous 0.86 % ...Actual 0.86 %

US Existing Home Sales
...Expected 4710 K ...Previous 4590 K ...Actual 4650 K

 

 

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 21 November 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105