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Monday May 26, 2014 - 10:59:20 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: EU election results should allow reforms to continue; Repsol to try for special dividend

Mon, 26 May 2014 5:27 AM EST

- European anti austerity voice grows but not enough to impact policy trend as major political equilibrium remained unchanged (Protest parties surge in Greece and France); validation for Italy's Renzi's policies and strengthens his mandate
- Ukraine elects pro-European businessman Poroshenko as its new president
- UK and US markets closed for holiday
- Poland Central Bank's Hausner: Stable rates would be best for the economy, possible that rates could stay stable to 2015
- General Prayuth officially appointed as Thailand leader by King Bhumibol Adulyadej
- Repsol to seek board approval Wed to distribute 1.3B to shareholders in the form of a 1/shr special dividend - Spain press
- Denmark Economic Ministry: Country's 2015 public deficit to move close to EU budget limits
- Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Gov Iwata: Japan is steadily moving out of deflation; Govt needs growth strategy to revitalize domestic economy
- UK PM Cameron: People are deeply disillusioned with EU but will not shorten timescale for negotiating Europe deal

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Continental bourses are broadly higher after European elections which saw pro-EU mainstream parties maintain a 2/3rds majority in EU Parliament. EU elections were more important on the national level and the markets have reflected this with France's CAC-40 underperforming after the Far-right National Front (anti-immigrant, anti-EU part) won the most votes in France with a 25% share while the FTSE MIB is outperforming after PM Renzi's Democratic party (PD) won an impressive 41% of the vote. Overall European stock hit highs not seen since Jan 2008 with the Germany DAX hitting an intraday record. UK and US markets are closed for holiday.

- Indices [Stoxx50 +0.7%, FTSE 100 closed, DAX 0.9% at 9,852, CAC-40 +0.3% at 4,506, IBEX-35 +0.7% at 10,630, FTSE MIB +2.4% at 21,240, SMI 0.0% at 8,702, S&P 500 Futures +0.3% at 1,902]

***By Sector***
- Financials [Credit Suisse CSGN.CH +1.5% (broker upgrade), UniCredit UCG.IT +3.7%, Banca Popolare di Milano PMI.IT +4.0%, Intesa Sanpaolo ISP.IT +3.1%, Banca Monte Paschi de Siena BMPS.IT +3.0% (strong results in Italy for EU elections)
- Energy [Seadrill SDRL.NO +3.7% (partnership with Rosneft), Repsol REP.ES +1.3% (declares 1/shr special div), Alpiq ALPH.CH 0.0% (to sell assets)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Air Berlin AB1.DE +2.5% (May consider splitting company in two)]
- Healthcare [Getinge AB GETIB.SE -8.6% (postpones capital markets day due to FDA communications)
- Technology [Bull SA BULL.FR +21.2%, Atos ATO.FR +4.6% (Atos to acquire Bull for 4.90/shr)]

***Currencies/Fixed Income***
- A sense of calm ensued the periphery bond markets following the weekend EU parliamentary elections as the major political equilibrium remained unchanged. Despite the sharp rise in votes for Eurosceptic parties, the traditional parties retained their clear majority in the European parliament, which should enable Europe to continue with reforms. The peripheral spreads narrowed for Spain, Italy, Portugal and even Greece.
**Note: Due to a technical glitch BTP and Oat futures were not able to trade in session on Eurex
- The FX market was little changed with EUR/USD holding above its recent 3-month lows

***Economic Data***
- (SG) Singapore Apr Industrial Production M/M: -4.7% v -4.5%e; Y/Y: 4.6% v 4.7%e
- (DE) Germany Jun GKF Consumer Confidence: 8.5 v 8.5e; matches 7-year high
- (FI) Finland Apr PPI M/M: 0.0% v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: -1.4% v -2.1% prior
- (CZ) Czech May Business Confidence: 9.9 v 9.9 prior; Consumer Confidence Index: -4.0 v -3.8 prior; Composite: 7.1 v 7.1 prior
- (ES) Spain Apr PPI M/M: 0.2 v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: +0.1 v -1.3% prior
- (EU) ECB 125M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 183.0M prior; 23.8B parked in deposit facility vs. 19.9B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (CH) SNB: Swiss sight deposits for week ended May 23rd (CHF): 304.1B v 307.0B prior
- (NL) Netherlands May Producer Confidence Index: 0.7 v 0.3 prior
- (SE) Sweden Apr PPI M/M: -0.4% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.8%e
- (SE) Sweden Apr Retail Sales M/M: +0.3% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: 5.7% v 3.9%e
- (PL) Poland Apr Unemployment Rate: 13.0% v 13.0%e
- (PL) Poland Apr Retail Sales M/M: 2.3% v 2.9%e; Y/Y: 8.4% v 8.7%e
- (TW) Taiwan Apr M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 6.2% v 5.9% prior; M1 Money Supply Y/Y: 9.1% v 8.9% prior

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (UR) Ukraine-Russia gas talks
- (EU) ECB's Constancio in Portugal
- 05:30 (DE) Germany sells in 12-month BuBills; Avg Yield: % v 0.1562% prior; Bid-to-cover: x v 2.0x prior (Apr 28th)
- 06:00 (IL) Israel Apr Unemployment Rate: No est v 5.8% prior
- 06:00 (TR) Turkey to sell 2015 Zero Bonds
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (FR) ECB's Coeure (France) in Portugal
- 07:00 (RO) Romania to sell RON800M in Bills
- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk
- 08:00 (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) announces size of upcoming
- 08:50 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell combined 6.6-7.8B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month Bills
- 09:00 (IL) Israel Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Base Rate unchanged at 0.75%
- 09:00 (BR) Brazil Apr Tax Collections (BRL): 105.0Be v 86.6B prior
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Apr Preliminary Trade Balance: -$433.0Me v $1.0B prior
- 09:30 (EU) ECB announces amount in next 7-day Term Deposit Tender to offset govt bond purchases under SMP
- 09:35 (EU) ECB calls for Bids in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender at fixed 0.25%
- 12:45 (CH) Swiss Fin Min Widmer-Schlumpf at Europa Forum Luzern




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