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Tuesday May 27, 2014 - 10:10:16 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: EU leaders continue meeting on election results; low volatility and yields remain

Tue, 27 May 2014 5:22 AM EST

- UK and US participants return from an extended weekend
- Market complacency environment continues highlighted by low volatility and low yields
- Italian Consumer Confidence at highest level since Jan 2010 (106.3 v 104.9e)
- Spain Econ Min Latorre: Reiterates view that economic recovery is gaining momentum; confidence is returning
- Greece PM Samaras might reshuffle his govt in June - financial press
- ICE: Euronext plans to list in Q4; to sell 33% stake in Euronext to a group of institutional investors
- Rosneft raising funds to take 26.2% stake in Pirelli at 12/shr
- EU Energy Min Oettinger: Russia-Ukraine gas talks are progressing in the dispute over gas prices
- German DIHK Chamber of Commerce: Reaffirms 2014 GDP growth forecast at 2.0%; cuts export growth to 4.0% from 4.5% prior
- Societe Generale and Kepler Cheuvreux both cut AstraZeneca after Pfizer drops bid
- Ireland Fin Min Noonan: Economy continues to grow strongly and to see if there is room to lessen austerity in 2015

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Continental European bourses open mixed following the low volume rally seen on Monday's session, DAX continues to trade at fresh record highs, AstraZeneca declines over 2% as deadline to start talks with Pfizer lapsed, Russian bank VTB sees sharp rise in Q1 impairment charges.

- Indices [Stoxx50 +0.2%, FTSE 100 +0.6% at 6,856 (closed prior session), DAX +0.4% at 9,927, CAC-40 flat at 4,526, IBEX-35 +0.4% at 10, 732, FTSE MIB +0.5% at 21,608, SMI -0.1% at 8,703, S&P 500 Futures +0.5% at 1,905]

***By Sector***
- Energy [Aleo Solar AS1.DE -12% (Q1 loss widened); Lamprell LAM.UK +2% (contract award)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Intercontinental Hotels IHG.UK +5% (takeover speculation), Accor AC.FR +2% (acquisition); Punch Taverns PUB.UK -29% (proposed debt/equity swap)]
- Technology [Aveva AVV.UK +11% (FY profits rose)]
- Healthcare [AstraZeneca AZN.UK -2% (deadline lapsed related to Pfizer's bid)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Telecom +0.4%, Technology +0.4%, Financials +0.2%,Basic Materials +0.1% Industrials +0.2%, Consumer Cyclical flat; Energy -0.6%, Utilities -0.5%,, Consumer Non-Cyclical -0.3%]

***Currencies/Fixed Income***
- Dealers were pondering whether the EUR would remain under pressure following the European elections, which showed populist and nationalist parties gaining ground. ECB Draghi comments at the ECB conference reinforced policy speculation However, peripheral bond yields continued to move lower after the results were not enough to impact policy trend as major political equilibrium remained unchanged. EUR/USD has been little change in the first two sessions this week at 1.3650 area. Belgium May CPI YoY reading adding confidence that ECB would act in May
- The US participants return from an extended weekend. The US data front gets a bit more important for FX markets as the debate regarding Fed exit strategies gains momentum. Durable goods data set for release in the session today.

***Economic Data***
- (JP) Japan May Small Business Confidence: 46.6 v 45.4 prior
- (CH) Swiss Apr Trade Balance (CHF): 2.4B v 2.1Be; Real Exports M/M: +0.6 v -1.1% prior; Real Imports M/M: -0.5% v -3.9% prior
- (FI) Finland May Business Confidence: -6 v -6 prior; Consumer Confidence Index: 8.7 v 5.0e
- (FR) France May Consumer Confidence: 85 v 85e
- (ZA) South Africa Mar Leading Indicator: 99.1 v 99.6 prior
- (TR) Turkey May Consumer Confidence Index: 76.0 v 78.5 prior
- (EU) ECB 6.0M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 125.0M prior; 22.7B parked in deposit facility vs. 23.8B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (SE) Sweden Apr Trade Balance (SEK): 4.6B v 5.5Be
- (IT) Italy May Consumer Confidence Index: 106.3 v 104.9e; highest since Jan 2010
- (UK) Apr BBA Loans for House Purchase: 42.2K v 45.1Ke
- (HK) Hong Kong Apr Trade Balance (HKD): -55.3B v -46.0Be; Exports Y/Y: -1.6% v +4.5%e; Imports Y/Y: 2.4% v 4.6%e
- (BE) Belgium May CPI M/M: -0.1% v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: 0.3% v 0.6% prior

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)

- (ES) Spain Apr YTD Budget Balance: No est v -9.9Be
- 05:30 (EU) EU Parliament Leaders meet to discuss Election Outcome
- 05:30 (ZA) South Africa Q1 GDP Annualized Q/Q: -0.2%e v +3.8% prior; GDP Y/Y: 1.9%e v 2.0% prior
- (EU) EU Leaders Summit to discuss High-Level Appointments
- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 3-Month Bills
- 06:00 (ES) IMF's Daniel in Madrid
- 06:00 (TR) Turkey to sell 2021 and 2024 bonds
- 06:00 (IL) Israel to sell 2016, 2-23 and 2024 bonds
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (EU) ECB allotment in 7-day Term Deposit Tender to offset govt bond purchases under SMP; expected to drain 164.5B
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil May FGV Construction Costs M/M: 1.3%e v 0.7% prior
- 08:00 (HU) Hungary Central Bank (NBH) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to cut Base Rate by 10bps to 2.40%
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk
- 08:30 (US) Apr Durable Goods Orders: -0.7%e v +2.9% prior (revised from 2.6%); Durables Ex Transportation: 0.0%e v 2.4% (revised from 2.0%); Capital Goods Orders Non-defense/ex-aircraft: -0.3%e v +3.5% prior (revised from 2.2%); Capital Goods Shipments Non-defense/ex-aircraft: -0.1%e v 1.5% prior (revised from 1.0%); Ex-Defense: No est v 1.8% prior
- 09:00 (US) Mar FHFA House Price Index M/M: 0.5%e v 0.6% prior; Q/Q: 1.3%e v 1.2% prior
- 09:00 (US) Mar S&P/CaseShiller 20 City M/M: 0.70%e v 0.76% prior; Y/Y: 11.85%e v 12.86% prior; Home Price Index: 166.20e v 165.35 prior
- 09:00 (US) Q1 S&P/CaseShiller HPI Y/Y: No est v 11.30% prior; Home Price Index: No est v 150.39 prior
- 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves
- 09:30 (EU) ECB's Draghi in Portugal
- 09:30 (EU) ECB calls for bids in 3-Month Refinancing Tender (prior allotment 13.2B with 97 bids)
- 09:45 (US) May Preliminary Markit Services PMI: 54.5e v 55.0 prior; Composite PMI: No est v 55.6 prior
- 10:00 (US) May Consumer Confidence Index: 83.0e v 82.3 prior
- 10:00 (US) May Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index: 5e v 7 prior

- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Weekly International Reserves
- 10:30 (US) May Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity: 9.2e v 11.7 prior
- 10:30 (UK) Treasury to announce size in upcoming 1.75% 2019 Gilt
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $2.25-2.75B in Notes
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell combined $48B in 3-month and 6-month Bills
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $31B in 2-Year Notes

- 13:30 (BR) Brazil Apr Total Federal Debt (BRL): No est v 2.081T prior
- 15:00 (UK) BOE Gov Carney in London
- 20:00 (JP) BOJ Gov Kuroda speaks at Conference at BOJ
- 20:10 (US) Fed's Lockhart in Baton Rouge
- 21:30 (CN) China Apr YTD Industrial Profits Y/Y: No est v 10.1% prior
- 23:00 (CN) China to Sell 5-Year Bonds




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