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Wednesday May 28, 2014 - 03:37:15 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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Morning Briefing : 28-May-2014 -0336 GMT

GOOD MORNING!

STOCKS
There is a contraction visible in Dow (16675.50, +0.42%) as both the rallies and the drops are getting smaller even with the higher highs & lows coming up. Keep an eye on 16300 on the downside and 16800-900 on the upside for an explosive breakout beyond this contracting range. The Dax (9940.82, +0.49%) has run closer to a minor resistance at 9985-10050 but the uptrend looks strong enough to push it up to 10300-400.

The Nikkei (14642.12, +0.04%) may rally towards 15200-300 or even higher now and any correction should be limited to 14300-250. The Shanghai (2035.58, +0.05%) is struggling near the 2040-50 resistance band repeatedly without much momentum in favor. The sideways move in the broader range of 1990-2080 may continue for some more time in a base-building process. Supports are at 2010-1990.

The corrective mode of the Nifty (7318, -0.56%) has been well established with the possibility of consolidation in the broader range of 6900-7500 gaining more ground. The multiple retesting of 7275-70 makes that an important support but this correction may reach 7130 or even lower. Keep an eye on 7200-7190 and 7080 for major supports.

COMMODITIES
Strong US data and Asian equities sharply push precious metals to lower levels in line with our bearish views. Oil market seems to be on the last leg of the recent rally and may expct near term correction while Copper continues its upward movement.

Gold (1264.68) slumped sharply to 1261 yesterday, (falling lower than our expected 1280 levels) on better than expected US data that may support the FederalReserve to further curb stimulus. It is testing crucial support near 1260 which if holds may bring it back to 1280-1294 else it may face the danger of falling towards 1230-1225 levels. Overall our view continues to remain bearish in the near term.

Copper (3.1700) is on a rise targeting resistance zone of 3.20-3.25 in the near term. Uptrend since
Marí14 is in force. Quite likely the Copper-Gold ratio has shot up and may indicate bullishness for the equities.

Silver (19.125) fell sharply but remains within 19.00-19.66. It may remain ranged within these levels in the near term unless a break above 19.66 is seen. The near term downtrend is in force. Gold-Silver ratio (66.079) is likely to remain bearish targeting 65.5 in the near term.

Brent (110.31) and Nymex WTI (104.15) are stable for now trading in the 110-111 and 103.5-104.5 zones but a little more rise could be seen towards 111.5-112 and 105-105.22 respectively before a downward correction. Overall trend remains up.

FOREX
After a few sessions of a strong Dollar, the currencies are trying to appreciate a bit against the Dollar but without much success yet. The major pairs have to rise much more to really weaken the Dollar.

The Euro (1.3637) is trying to find some buying close to the trendline support at 1.3590-80 and this attempt, if successful, may take Euro higher to 1.3700-30. But the weakness remains intact below 1.3800 and any bounce is expected to face selling pressure at the higher levels.

Dollar-Yen (101.93) has been facing selling pressure exactly from our resistance at 102.00-15 but a break above this resistance is required to take it to the major supply zone at 102.75-103.00.The Euro-Yen (138.99) is in a sideways move in 138.50-139.50 after bouncing from an important Support around 138.70-30 but unless Resistance at 140 is broken, there could be chances of further fall to test 200-day MA at 137.94 or even lower towards 136.

The Pound (1.6812) has suffered from a sharp correction lately but the uptrend remains intact for targets of 1.70 as only a break below 1.6730 could negate the uptrend and then a dip to sub-1.6600 levels would be on cards. Watch for a break above 1.6900-20 for strength.

The Aussie (0.9261) is trying to stay above the major support area of 0.9200-0.9180 after the sharp fall, but the current structure remains weak. A break beyond the broader range of 0.92-0.94 may produce the next major directional move.

Dollar-Rupee (59.04) closes above 59 in a show of strength but a break above 59.20-30 is still required for a bigger rise. Some tools are pointing to the area around 59.15 as a possible termination point for this rally but we would like to keep trailing our longs for a target of 59.50-65 and then 60.00-10 on a break above 59.30. Support comes at 58.62-55.

INTEREST RATES
The US yields are trading lower. The 5Yr (1.53%) and the 10Yr (2.51%) have come off slightly from the crucial levels of 1.55% and 2.55% respectively. We are still waiting for a clear breakout on either side to give us a clearer view. The 30Yr (3.35%) has come to test the support near 3.34% a bounce from here can take it back up to 3.50%. With the yield differentials falling (see http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/usddiff.shtml#sindiff ), the US yield curve is likely to flatten if the yields donít see a bounce.

The yields all over Europe have also seen a fall. The German 10Yr (1.38%) has come down again to the 1.37% levels from near our target of 1.45%. The Spanish 10Yr (2.89%), France 10Yr (1.79%) and the Italian 10Yr (3.00%) are all down. All eyes are on the ECB Meeting next week where it is anticipated that the Central Bank will cut interest rates to counter the low inflation levels.

The US-Japan 10Yr yield spread (1.92%) dropped on the back of lower US yields breaking below the 55 Week MA as the Dollar-Yen (101.93) remained stable. The Japan 10Yr (0.59%) is also unchanged and is expected to maintain a range of 0.55% - 0.60%.

The Indo-US 10Yr yield spread (6.14%) remained stable after the bounce from the support near 6.10%. The 10Yr GOI (8.68%) remained unchanged and can target 8.75% if it is able to rise further otherwise the downside risk of 8.50% - 8.55% remains open.

DATA TODAY

5:45 GMT or 11:15 IST CH GDP
...Expected 0.60 % ...Previous 0.16 %

9:00 GMT or 14:30 IST EU Biz Climate
...Previous - 102

DATA YESTERDAY

US Durable Goods Orders
...Expected -0.50 % ...Previous 3.56 % ...Actual 0.80 %

US Case Schiller
...Expected 11.90 % ...Previous 12.86 % ...Actual 12.37 %

US Cons Conf
...Expected 83.20 ...Previous 81.7 ...Actual 83.0

 

 

 

 

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13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
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15:30 US- EIA Crude
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John M. Bland, MBA
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