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Wednesday May 28, 2014 - 05:05:09 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: China industrial profits growth slows further; Fonterra lowers milk price for FY14 by 20% - Source TradeTheNews.com

(CN) CHINA APR INDUSTRIAL PROFITS Y/Y: 9.6% V 10.7% PRIOR; YTD Y/Y: 10.0% V 10.1% PRIOR >- (AU) AUSTRALIA APR WESTPAC LEADING INDEX M/M: -0.5% (biggest decline in 5 years) V 0.0% PRIOR - (AU) AUSTRALIA Q1 CBA/HIA HOUSE AFFORDABILITY: 77.2 V 75.6 PRIOR (best affordability in 12 years) - (AU) AUSTRALIA Q1 CONSTRUCTION WORK DONE Q/Q: +0.3% v -0.5%E - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND MAY ANZ ACTIVITY OUTLOOK: 51.0 V 52.5 PRIOR; ANZ BUSINESS CONFIDENCE: 53.5 (3rd consecutive decline; 6-month low) V 64.8 PRIOR Market Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT): - Nikkei225 flat, S&P/ASX +0.4%, Kospi +0.5%, Shanghai Composite flat, Hang Seng +0.5%, Jun S&P500 flat at 1,909, Jun gold -0.1% at $1,264, Jul crude oil +0.1% at $104.19/brl ***Highlights/Observations/Insights*** - Fonterra finalizes its milk price for FY13/14 at NZ$8.40/kg, down from NZ$8.65/kg prior estimate, and also initiates FY14/15 forecast at NZ$7.00/kg. Co-op continues to see China demand remaining strong, anticipating about 2% growth in overall milk production for the coming season. ANZ economists noted the price cut was not as steep as markets had feared, briefly sending NZD slightly higher. - China April industrial profit growth slowed to single digits y/y and also incrementally softer on YTD basis. Research notes from mainland analysts and the CICC varied on the viability of a more aggressive policy easing in the shape of a RRR cut - the former leaning in favor and the latter arguing in support of a more low-profile and targeted monetary easing. - Commentary accompanying Australia's Westpac leading index from resident economist warned that the data show a "slowdown corroborated across all components (which) is a strong indication that a genuine slowdown is underway." Note Australia will put out its critical private CAPEX survey from the ABS, widely regarded as a powerful gauge of business appetite for risk as well as the health of the mining industry. ***Speakers/Political/In the Papers*** - (CN) China National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC): China's high level of iron ore inventory to continue - financial press - (CN) Slowdown in China housing market adds the chance to a RRR cut; Chance for a loose monetary policy still low - Chinese press - (CN) China Pres Xi Jinping: Both the "invisible hand" and the "visible hand" should be well used - Xinhua - (JP) BOJ Gov Kuroda: critical to balance policy flexibility and commitment in forward guidance - BOJ conf (Tokyo) - (US) Fed's Lockhart (moderate, FOMC alternate): Expects first raise in main rate in H2 2015; Expects Fed to halt QE in Q4 2014; Sees 3% GDP growth over next several quarters ***Fixed Income/Commodities/Currencies*** - (JP) BOJ offers to buy 250B in 1-3yr JGB, 250B in 3-5yr JGB and 170B in JGB with maturity over 10-yr - (AU) Australia sells A$700M in bonds due 2027; Avg yield: 3.9479%; Bid-to-cover: 3.02x - GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings rise 8.4 tonnes to 785.3 tonnes (first rise since May 15th) - USD majors were largely confined to thin post-holiday ranges with the exception of the kiwi dollar. NZD/USD initially rose some 30pips above $0.8570 as New Zealand's Fonterra payout cut for the current year and next year were not as steep as feared, but retreated back below $0.8550 later in the day. USD/JPY backed away from the 102 handle, sliding some 10pips to 101.90, while EUR/USD consolidated the moderate selling in the US session to trade within the $1.3620-40 band. AUD/USD traded about 10pips on either side of $0.9260 amid mixed economic data from Australia and China. ***Equities*** US markets: - WDAY: Reports Q1 $0.13 v -$0.15e, R$159.7M v $153Me; +8.7% afterhours - QIHU: Reports Q1 $0.54 v $0.34e, R$265.1M v $222Me; +6.0% afterhours - URBN: Announces Authorization to Repurchase 10M (7.3% of outstanding) Shares; +0.3% afterhours Notable movers by sector: - Consumer Discretionary: Sands China 1928.HK -2.2% (shareholder offers shares); Ajinomoto 2802.JP +2.0% (to use marine or rail shipping in long distance) - Consumer staples: Fonterra FCG.NZ +0.3% (announces payout prices) - Financials: Goodpack GPACK.SG +4.3% (KKR makes offer); China Vanke 000002.CN +1.1% (cuts price in Guangzhou) - Industrials: Shanghai Prime Machinery 2345.HK -3.6% (announces acquisition) - Technology: GRG Banking Equipment 002152.CN +10.0%, Guangzhou KingTeller Technology 002177.CN +10.0%, Inspur Electronic Information Industry 000977.CN +10.0% (China bans IBM servers in banks); Tencent Holdings 700.HK +1.4% (JD traded higher by over 14% today in US) - Source TradeTheNews.com

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
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13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
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