User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Thursday May 29, 2014 - 03:29:51 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

Morning Briefing : 29-May-2014 -0329 GMT

GOOD MORNING!

STOCKS
Nearly all the markets are trading very quietly ahead of the US GDP data and even a worse than expected drop in Japanese retail sales didn’t produce any significant ripple. The Indian F&O Expiry may produce some sharp moves.

The contracting range visible in Dow (16633.18, -0.25%) is producing ever smaller moves regarding both rallies and drops even with the higher highs & lows coming up. Keep an eye on 16400 on the downside and 16800-900 on the upside for an explosive breakout beyond this contracting range. The Dax (9939.17, -0.02%) has run closer to a minor resistance at 9985-10050 but the major uptrend looks strong enough to push it up to 10300-400.

The Nikkei (14649.27, -0.15%) may rally towards 15200-300 or even higher now and any correction should be limited to 14300-250. The Shanghai (2049.64, -0.03%) has been trading in1990-2080 for the last 1 month and now it is close to the upper end at 2060-65 where some selling can be expected again. The sideways move in the broader range of 1990-2080 may continue for some more time in a base-building process.

The speculation over the next step RBI is going to take has reached a feverish level but Nifty (7329.65, +11.65) is contained in a contracting range for the last two days. The multiple retesting of 7275-70 makes that an important support but this correction may reach 7130 or even lower. Keep an eye on 7200-7190 and 7080 for major supports.

COMMODITIES
Gold (1257.126) has initiated a sharp fall which may target 1225 in the coming sessions. Though it is testing a near-term support near 1257-1260, chances of breaking below is higher. However, if it bounces back from current levels it may target 1280 before again resuming the fall. Overall our longer term bearish view holds.

Copper (3.1625) is stable for now but is eventually targeting 3.20-3.25 in the near term. Copper Gold ratio (0.161) has been rising since March’14 (0.14) and is targeting higher levels for now, indicating strength in equities. Overall near term is bullish for Copper.

Silver (19.046) is stable while above 19. Sideways consolidation may continue within 19-19.66 region. Unless a break on either side of this range, further direction cannot be determined. Gold-Silver ratio (66.003) has fallen as expected and may target 65.50 in the coming sessions. Near term is bearish.

Brent (109.90) has entered into a correction mode while in an uptrend, as the resistance near 111.04 holds well. The fall may push it to support near 109.5-109-108.94 from where we may expect a bounce back towards 110 levels.

Nymex WTI (102.96) has fallen sharply from resistance near 104.45-104.50 and is testing levels of 102.94 now. It may fall further towards 102.30-101.60 in the coming sessions if it breaks below 102.94.

FOREX
The feeble attempts by the major pairs to appreciate are over and Dollar is strengthening against almost all the currencies. But quite a few of the currencies are close to their major support zones. Keep watch.

The Euro (1.3605) is testing the trendline support at 1.3590-80 and may try to bounce back to 1.3700-30. But the weakness remains intact below 1.3800 and any bounce is expected to face selling pressure at the higher levels.

Dollar-Yen (101.68) has been pushed down exactly from our resistance at 102.00-15 but a break above this resistance is required to take it to the higher resistance at 102.75-103.00.The Euro-Yen (138.35) is also testing the last swing low near 138 (also 200 DMA at 138.30) as all attempts to break above 140 have failed so far and looks all set for a fall to 136-135 in the next few sessions.

The uptrend in Pound (1.6723) has been neutralized with this break of 1.6730 and now a dip to 1.6670-20 can’t be ruled out. Now it remains to be seen if the last hope for the bulls at 1.66 remains protected or not.

The Aussie (0.9274) tested the support area at 0.9200-0.9180 once again before bouncing sharply. But we still wait for a break beyond the broader range of 0.92-0.94 which may produce the next major directional move.

Dollar-Rupee (58.93) faced rejection from exactly our resistance at 59.20 and that 59.20 becomes the breakout point for the next rally. It could be too early to conclude that the rally is finished at 59.20. It may well be a normal correction after 3-4 days of rise and there is a probability of the strength returning from 58.75-65. Only a break below 58.65 would be a matter for concern for the Dollar bulls.

INTEREST RATES
There has been fall in yields globally.

The US 5Yr (1.50%) and the 10Yr (2.44%) came off from the crucial levels of 1.55% and 2.55% respectively and the 30Yr (3.29%) broke below the support near 3.34%. The fall in the yields indicates a weak growth outlook. The GDP data today will be watched. With the yields breaking below the important supports we can now expect them to trade even lower. The yield differentials have also seen a fall and the 10-5Yr (0.94%) has fallen below the support near 0.95% indicating a flatter yield curve.

The German 10Yr (1.34%), the Spanish 10Yr (2.82%), France 10Yr (1.73%) and the Italian 10Yr (2.93%) have fallen further in anticipation of a rate cut in next week’s ECB Meeting. The German-US 2Yr yield spread (-0.32%) has fallen and is testing support at current levels in line with the Euro (1.3608) which continues to trade lower. A bounce in the spread from these levels and it can go up to -0.25% and can take the Euro higher.

The US-Japan 10Yr yield spread (1.87%) has fallen further and may test 1.80%if the fall continues. The Japan 10Yr (0.56%) came off from the long term resistance near 0.60%. The 10-5Yr yield differential (0.38%) has come to test a long term support near 0.375% and we may see a bounce from here.
The Indo-US 10Yr yield spread (6.20%) saw a rise on the back of the falling US yields and may test the resistance near 6.25%. The 10Yr GOI (8.70%) saw a rise, unaffected by the global fall in the yields and may target the 200 Day MA near 8.80%.

DATA TODAY

12:30 GMT or 18:00 IST US GDP
...Expected -0.60 % ...Previous 0.10 %


DATA YESTERDAY

CH GDP
...Expected 0.60 % ...Previous 0.18 % ...Actual 0.46 %

EU Biz Climate
...Previous 102 ...Expected 102.20 ...Actual 102.70


 

 

 

 

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 21 November 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105