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Thursday May 29, 2014 - 09:49:24 GMT
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Weak Japanese Retail Sales. U.S. Calendar Today

Weak Japanese Retail Sales. U.S. Calendar Today
May 29, 2014 00:00 gmt
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map

  • Early in Europe, yields in prime fixed income markets are broadly lower today following the sharp decline in U.S. yields  yesterday. Some centers are closed for a holiday.  Yields on bonds on the periphery of the Eurozone are mostly a touch higher.
  • Equities mostly fell in the Far East earlier as they followed the Wednesday  U.S. lead. European bourses are mixed. U.S. equity futures are up slightly.
  • The U.S. 10-yr is 2.43%, -2bp.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


    HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: EZ- Holiday (partial), CH- Holiday, CA- Current Account, GDP. US- GDP, Jobless Claims, Pending Homes Sales
  • Forex trading activity yesterday was slow. Traders might have been looking for direction in what may be improving trading markets.
  • Japanese April Retail Sales fell by a greater than expected after a significant hike in the retail Sales price. We will be monitoring activity in coming months for any lasting impact on the economy.
  • The major focus now is on that ECB meeting. Forward guidance from ECB confirms that some sort of easing by the central bank is in store, but some worry that will be forthcoming from the central bank is a reduction in interest rates. The concern of many is that a slight reduction in near-zero interest rates will only have a psychological impact.
  • U.S. data calendar for Thursday is active. See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.


    Five Day Trading Planner



    THURSDAY 29 May 2014
    Eurozone
    Holiday
    United States
    GDP- Revisions to 1Q14 GDP will be closely-watched
    Weekly Jobless Claims- Markets always watch claims.
    Pending Homes Sales- Good predictor of Existing Homes
    Canada- GDP- Often not a Market-mover

    FRIDAY 30 May 2014
    Japan-
    CPI - The BOJ wants to extricate Japan from deflation. Core CPI seem 3.60% (subtract -2.70% for sales tax hike.).
    Germany;
    Retail Sales-  Key for Germany since its recent economic strength has been consumer-led. Very unusual.
    United States-
    University of Michigan Survey. Closely watched

    MONDAY 2 June 2014
    United States
    Final Markit Mfg PMI- Relatively new PMI .Not fully trusted yet.
    ISM MFG PMI- Original Mfg PMI measure. Closely followed.Ben showing strength.

    TUESDAY 3 June 2014
    Australia
    Reserve Bank Decision- No Rate change expected. Key event.

    WEDNESDAY 4 June 2014
    United States
    ADP Jobs- Volatile series but tends to influence  outlook for NFP.
    Markit Service PMI- Trusted even less than their mfg PMI.
    ISM Service PMI-Reliable source and closely followed.
    Beige Book- Economic report used by Fed for policy discussions.
    Canada
    Bank of Canada Decision. No rate changes seen for now. .

FOREX CALENDAR
Time   Country Title Cons Last
29/05/14 12:30 CA Cur/Acct C$b -13 -16
29/05/14 12:30 CA GDP mm Apr n/a 0.20%
29/05/14 12:30 US GDP 1Q14p -0.50% 0.10%
29/05/14 12:30 US Initial Claims 315 326
29/05/14 12:30 US Cont Claims 2.65 2.653
29/05/14 14:00 US Pending Homes 1.00% 3.40%
29/05/14 14:30 US Nat Gas bcf n/a 106
29/05/14 15:00 US EIA Crude mn n/a -7.2
29/05/14 15:00 US EIA Gasoline mn n/a 0.97
29/05/14 15:00 US EIA Distillate mn n/a 3.4
29/05/14 15:00 US EIA Cap Util n/a 88.70%
29/05/14 17:00 TRY TRY 7-yr n/a n/a
30/05/14 0:00 FRIDAY
30/05/14 0:30 JP Unemploy Mar 3.60% 3.60%
30/05/14 0:30 JP Core CPI Mar 3.10% 1.30%
30/05/14 0:30 JP CPI yy n/a 1.60%
30/05/14 6:00 DE RetSls m Apr 0.30% 0.10%
30/05/14 6:00 DE RetSls y 1.50% -1.10%
30/05/14 7:00 CH KOF Ind May n/a 102
30/05/14 12:30 US PCE defl y 1.30% 1.30%
30/05/14 12:30 US Per Inc Mar 0.30% 0.50%
30/05/14 13:45 US Chicago PMI 61 63
30/05/14 13:55 US U Mich final 82.5 81.6
30/05/14 19:30 US COT Report n/a n/a


calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar  For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.


John M. BlandJohn M. Bland, is a founding partner of Global-View.com,  and an author. He has been an FX consultant for a money center. bank, a forex trader for a N.Y. institution, and a FX analyst for a top Fed watching service. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
Copyright 2014, GlobalViewpoint, Inc All rights reserved

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Thu 14 Dec
23:50 JP- Tankan Survey

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --23:50-- JP- Tankan Survey
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