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Thursday May 29, 2014 - 16:26:59 GMT
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| | Email US Market Update: GDP Wipeout Sends Stocks and USTs higher

Thu, 29 May 2014 11:07 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (ZA) South Africa Apr PPI M/M: 1.0% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: 8.8% v 8.4%e
- (BR) Brazil May FGV Inflation IGPM M/M: -0.1% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 7.8% v 7.9%e
- (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e May 23rd: $468.4B v $466.8 prior
- (US) Q1 Preliminary GDP Annualized Q/Q: -1.0% v -0.5%e; Personal Consumption: 3.1% v 3.1%e
- (US) Q1 Preliminary Price Index: 1.3% v 1.3%e; Core PCE Q/Q: 1.2% v 1.3%e
- (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 300K v 318Ke; Continuing Claims: 2.63M v 2.65Me
- (CA) Canada Q1 Current Account Balance: -$12.4B v -$13.0Be
- (CA) Canada Mar Average Weekly Earnings Y/Y: 3.1% v 2.5% prior
- (BR) Brazil Apr Total Outstanding Loans (BRL): 2.78T v 2.760T prior; Outstanding Loans M/M: 0.6% v 1.0% prior; Private Banks Lending: 1.328T v 1.328T prior
- (US) Apr Pending Home Sales M/M: +0.4% v +1.0%e; Y/Y: -9.4% v -8.8%e
- (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories: +114 bcf v +108-112 bcf expected range

- Trading has been volatile this morning on lighter trading volumes as investors struggle to reconcile excellent weekly jobless claims, a fully expected wipeout in the second reading of first-quarter GDP and some weak April housing numbers. Once again, equities are up - the S&P500 was making fresh all-time highs in the first minutes of cash trading - and US Treasuries are up - the yield on the 10-year dropped to 2.405%, its best level since last June. As of writing, the DJIA is up 0.06%, the S&P500 is up 0.21% and the Nasdaq is up 0.26%

- Jobless claims for the week of May 24th fell to 300k, pulling the four-week moving average down to 312k, its lowest reading since August 2007. However, analysts warn of noise in the claims data around Memorial Day weekend. The second reading of Q1 GDP was revised to -1.0% from +0.1% in the advance reading. Almost all of the net revision was due to a larger drag from inventories, which contributed -1.0 percentage point to the revision (-1.6% v -0.6% in the advance reading). This marks only the second time since the recession that GDP declined during a quarter. There is also concern about Q1 gross domestic income, first reported in today's report, which fell 2.3%, its worst performance since the recession. Note that the personal consumption figure stayed very strong at +3.1%, helping to offset other more negative components.

- Shares of Abercrombie & Fitch fell around 5% yesterday ahead of earnings, and this morning shares of ANF had made up all those losses following somewhat less disappointing first-quarter results. The firm's net loss was about as expected while revenues slightly beat estimates. The firm also improved its FY14 SSS outlook and gross margin guidance. ANF is +4% currently.

- T-Mobile is up a few percent this morning on some deal chatter. Earlier this year, Softbank and Sprint reportedly met with the DoJ to discuss a potential T-Mobile acquisition, and yesterday at the Re/Code conference, Softbank's CEO said his company wants to buy another firm and commented that neither Sprint nor T-Mobile have sufficient scale to compete nationally. Then this morning, Japanese press sources were reporting that Deutsche Telekom has given a green light to Softbank to acquire T-Mobile.

- Just days after Pilgrim's Pride launched a bid for Hillshire Brands, Tyson Foods has thrown its hat into the grocery isle. PPC had offered $45/shr in cash for the firm and Tyson topped this bid with a $50/shr cash offer, for a total deal valued at $6.8 billion. Tyson said the deal would be accretive to EPS in the first year. HSH is up 15.5% on the offer, TSN is up nearly 6%.

- Traders are talking about another piece by the WSJ's Jon Hilsenrath, who commented on a recent San Francisco Fed research paper examining the interplay between long-term unemployment and inflation. The paper asserted that the FOMC may need to allow inflation to overshoot for a time in order to cut long-term unemployment, a position that splits the difference between two tendencies at the Fed. One camp feels that the long-term unemployed are highly disengaged from the economy and therefore have little effect on wages or inflation, while the other - which includes Fed Chair Yellen - sees the long-term unemployed as still engaged in the economy looking for work. As the economy strengthens and they find work, they will hold down wages and inflation, this camp argues.

***Looking Ahead***
- 12:00 (ES) Spain Fin Min de Guindos speaks in Sitges
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $29B in 7-Year Notes
- 19:00 (KR) South Korea Apr Industrial Production M/M: No est v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.7% prior
- 19:05 (UK) May GfK Consumer Confidence: No est v -3 prior
- 19:30 (JP) Japan Apr Jobless Rate: 3.6%e v 3.6% prior
- 19:30 (JP) Japan Apr National CPI Y/Y: 3.3%e v 1.6% prior; CPI Ex Fresh Food Y/Y: 3.1%e v 1.3% prior; CPI Ex Food, Energy Y/Y: 2.2%e v 0.7% prior
- 19:30 (JP) Japan May Tokyo CPI Y/Y: 3.0%e v 2.9% prior; CPI Ex-Fresh Food Y/Y: 2.9%e v 2.7% prior; CPI Ex Food, Energy Y/Y: 2.1%e v 2.0% prior
- 19:50 (JP) Japan Apr Preliminary Industrial Production M/M: -2.0%e v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 4.6%e v 7.4% prior
- 21:30 (US) Fed's George speaks at Stanford
- (BR) Brazil Apr Central Govt Budget Balance (BR): No est v 3.2B prior
- (BR) Brazil May CNI Consumer Confidence: No est v 108.7 prior




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