Friday May 30, 2014 - 03:38:58 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 30-May-2014 -0336 GMT
The US GDP shrank worse than most pessimistically expected but still the US markets rose as much of the decline was due to less inventory building that is not supposed to last and many houses are boosting second quarter growth forecasts. The Asia-Pac remains in a quiet trading mode.
No change in Dow (16698.74, +0.39%) as it keeps producing ever smaller moves in a contracting range with the higher highs & lows coming up. Keep an eye on 16400 on the downside and 16800-900 on the upside for an explosive breakout beyond this contracting range. The Dax (9938.90, 0.00%) is consolidating in a narrow 50 point range close to a minor resistance at 9985-10050 but the major uptrend looks strong enough to push it up to 10300-400.
The Nikkei (14645.72, -0.25%) is in a sideways mode after the sharp rally from 14000 to 14700 and may rally towards 15200-300 or even higher after this correction ends. The Shanghai (2033.19, -0.36%) faced good selling pressure near 2060-65 as expected but the sideways move in the broader range of 1990-2080 may continue for some more time in a base-building process.
Nifty (7235.65, -94.00) finally confirmed the bearishness by closing below 7275-70 and opened the door firmly towards 7130 or even lower. All rallies are expected to get sold at higher levels till 7300. Keep an eye on 7200-7190 and 7080 for major supports.
Gold (1257.587) is stable for now while in a downtrend and below 1261.10, it may fall towards 1225 in the coming weeks. Testing a near-term support near 1257-1260, chances of fall is higher.
Copper (3.1450) saw a little correction while in a near term uptrend and may continue to target 3.20-3.25 in the coming sessions.
Silver (19.01) is stable while trading just above support region of 18.5-19.0. It may continue to range sideways for some more sessions while below 19.6.
Brent (110.05) has bounced from 109.5 just as expected and may target 110.58 again in the coming sessions. A break above 110.58-111.05 may take it higher towards our earlier target of 112.
Nymex WTI (103.37) has bounced up a little targeting previous levels of 104.5 which if breaks may take it towards 105-105.22. Overall near term is bullish.
Dollar keeps its strength intact against most of the majors except Yen and Aussie. But quite a few of the currencies are close to their major support zones. Keep watch.
No sign of strength is visible yet in the Euro (1.3605) as it tests the trendline support at 1.3590-80 and may try to bounce back to 1.3700-30. But the weakness remains intact below 1.3800 and any bounce is expected to face selling pressure at the higher levels.
Dollar-Yen (101.54) must break above 102.15 to rise higher towards the next resistance at 102.75-103.00. Within this broad sideway range of 100.50-103.00, any immediate bullish possibility survives till 101.20. The Euro-Yen (138.16) is also testing the last swing low near 138 (also 200 DMA at 138.30) as all attempts to break above 140 have failed so far and looks all set for a fall to 136-135 in the next few sessions.
The weakness and loss of bullish momentum in Pound (1.6733) is pronounced and now a dip to 1.6670-20 canít be ruled out. But it remains to be seen if the last hope for the bulls at 1.66 remains protected or not.
The Aussie (0.9313) looks all set to test the major resistance area of 0.9400-50 but a break above 0.94 may help it to get past the entire supply zone and push it up towards 0.96-0.97. A failure near 0.94 would mean another small dip and more sideways move in the range of 0.92-0.94.
Dollar-Rupee (59.03) bounced after testing our support 58.75 for two days implying the price action as a correction only and that has made it easier to keep a stoploss below 58.75 for any longs. The strength gets confirmed on a break above 59.20 and then 59.50-75 can be expected.
The US yields saw a slight rise yesterday but the 5Yr (1.53%), the 10Yr (2.46%) and the 30Yr (3.33%) are still trading below the crucial zone of 1.55%, 2.50% and 3.35% respectively. Unless we see a clear break above these levels we may see a flattening yield curve negating our view of a rise in the yields in the next few months. With the GDP coming in at worse than expected indicating a week economy there are chances of a further fall in the yields until there in an improvement in the economy.
The German 10Yr (1.36%), the Spanish 10Yr (2.86%), France 10Yr (1.74%) and the Italian 10Yr (2.96%) have also seen a slight rise. With the ECB ready to cut rates we may see the yields trading in these levels till then. The German-US 2Yr yield spread (-0.32%) remained unchanged testing support at current levels as the Euro (1.3605) remains stable near yesterdays levels. A bounce in the spread from these levels and it can go up to -0.25% and can take the Euro higher.
The US-Japan 10Yr yield spread (1.89%) is slightly up but may test 1.80% before we see a bounce. The Japan 10Yr (0.57%) is also up slightly but still trading below the long term resistance near 0.60%. The 10-5Yr yield differential (0.39%) is down and may test a long term support near 0.375% before a bounce.
The Indo-US 10Yr yield spread (6.25%) rose to test the resistance near 6.25% as expected and can now fall back to 6.15% if the resistance holds or else we may see 6.35%. The 10Yr GOI (8.67%) on the other hand dipped slightly but may still target the 200 Day MA near 8.80%.
23:05 GMT or 4:35 IST UK Cons Conf
...Expected -1 ...Previous -3 ...Actual 0
23:30 GMT or 5:00 IST JP Unemp
...Expected 3.60 % ...Previous 3.60 % ...Actual 3.60 %
12:00 GMT or 17:30 IST IN GDP
...Previous - 4.70
12:30 GMT or 18:00 IST US Personal Income
...Expected 0.30 % ...Previous 0.54 %
12:30 GMT or 18:00 IST US PCE Price Index M/M
...Expected 0.20 % ...Previous 0.91 %
12:30 GMT or 18:00 IST CA GDP
...Expected 0.10 % ...Previous 0.20 %
...Expected -0.60 % ...Previous 0.10 % ...Actual -1.00 %