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Friday May 30, 2014 - 09:42:27 GMT
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Japanese CPI Spike as Expected. German Retail Sales Miss.
|Japanese CPI Spike as Expected. German Retail Sales Miss.|
May 30, 2014 09:00 gmt
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map
- Early in Europe, yields in prime fixed income markets are now broadly higher. The market has the feel of a situation where a major player(s) got caught out yesterday, We have heard no specifics yet. Yields on the bonds on the periphery of the Eurozone are higher.
- Equities mostly fell in the Far East earlier. European bourses are trading mixed. U.S. equity futures are lower after the S&P 500 made new record highs on the Thursday close.
- The U.S. 10-yr is 2.48%, +3bp.
The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: CA- GDP. US- Personal Income, PCE deflator, Chicago PMI, University of Michigan
- German Real Retail Sales fell unexpectedly by 0.9% in April. This was yet another case of poor German data and should be monitored. The data could figure into the ECB decision on Thursday.
- Japanese April CPI data spiked higher as expected as a result of the hike in the Sales tax. Japan wants to raise its inflation rate but higher taxes are not the best path to accomplish this.
- The major focus now is the ECB meeting next Thursday. Forward guidance from ECB confirms that some sort of easing by the central bank is in store, but some worry that will be forthcoming from the central bank is a reduction in interest rates. The concern of many is that a slight reduction in near-zero interest rates will only have a psychological impact.
- U.S. data calendar for Friday is active. See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.
Five Day Trading Planner
FRIDAY 30 May 2014
CPI - The BOJ wants to extricate Japan from deflation. Core CPI seem 3.60% (subtract -2.70% for sales tax hike.).
Retail Sales- Key for Germany since its recent economic strength has been consumer-led. Very unusual.
University of Michigan Survey. Closely watched
MONDAY 2 June 2014
Final Markit Mfg PMI- Relatively new PMI .Not fully trusted yet.
ISM MFG PMI- Original Mfg PMI measure. Closely followed.Ben showing strength.
TUESDAY 3 June 2014
Reserve Bank Decision- No Rate change expected. Key event.
WEDNESDAY 4 June 2014
ADP Jobs- Volatile series but tends to influence outlook for NFP.
Markit Service PMI- Trusted even less than their mfg PMI.
ISM Service PMI-Reliable source and closely followed.
Beige Book- Economic report used by Fed for policy discussions.
Bank of Canada Decision. No rate changes seen for now.
THURSDAY 5 June 2014.
Bank of England Decision
European central Bank Policy Decision
||GDP mm Apr
||PCE defl y
||Per Inc Mar
||U Mich final
||Markit MFG PMI final
||ISM MFG PMI
Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.
John M. Bland, is a founding partner of Global-View.com, and an author. He has been an FX consultant for a money center. bank, a forex trader for a N.Y. institution, and a FX analyst for a top Fed watching service. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
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Fri 24 Nov
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John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release
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