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Friday May 30, 2014 - 09:50:40 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Price action in various asset classes subdued heading into the weekend

Fri, 30 May 2014 5:21 AM EST

- Japan Apr National CPI hits highest since Feb 1991 (3.4% v 3.4%e) but account for the impact of consumption tax increase being passed on to consumers but negating immediate hopes for BOJ easing
- German Apr Retail Sales miss expectations (Easter related); consumption trends should continue to support domestic demand
- Sweden Q1 GDP contracts q/q (first time in three quarters)

***Economic Data***
- (JP) Japan Apr Vehicle Production Y/Y: 3.4% v 14.0% prior
- (JP) Japan Apr Annualized Housing Starts: 906K v 863Ke; Housing Starts Y/Y: -3.3% v -8.3%e; Construction Orders Y/Y: 104.9% v -8.8% prior
- (UK) Retailer John Lewis reports weekly LFL Partnership sales for week ending May 24th: +9.0% v +6.4% prior
- (DE) Germany Apr Retail Sales M/M: -0.9% v +0.2%e; Y/Y: 3.4% v 1.5%e
- (FI) Finland Mar Final Trade Balance: -143M v -110M prelim
- (ZA) South Africa Apr M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 7.0% v 7.1%e; Private Sector Credit Y/Y: 8.3% v 8.7%e
- (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e May 23rd (RUB): 8.15T v 8.17T prior
- (PH) Philippines Apr Bank Lending Y/Y: 19.4% v 18.3% prior; Bank Lending Net of RRPs Y/Y: 20.5% v 20.0% prior
- (PH) Philippines Apr M3 Money Supply SRF Y/Y: 32.1% v 34.8% prior
- (ES) Spain May Preliminary CPI Y/Y: 0.2% v 0.3%e; CPI EU Harmonized Y/Y: 0.2% v 0.2%e
- (CH) Swiss May KOF Leading Indicator: 99.8 v 102.1e
- (AT) Austria Apr PPI M/M: 0.0% v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: -1.2% v -1.4% prior
- (TR) Turkey Apr Trade Balance: -$7.2B v -$6.6Be
- (EU) ECB 309M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 120.0M prior; 33.2B parked in deposit facility vs. 31.3B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (SE) Sweden Q1 GDP Q/Q: -0.1% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 1.9% v 2.3%e
- (TH) Thailand Apr Current Account Balance: -$0.6B v +$0.2Be; Trade Account Balance: $0.6B v $3.5B prior; Overall Trade Balance: +$1.1B v -$154M prior; Exports Y/Y: -0.9% v -2.7% prior; Imports Y/Y: -13.8% v -13.7% prior
- (TH) Thailand Apr Business Sentiment Index: 44.3 v 49.4 prior
- (IT) Italy Apr PPI M/M: -0.3% v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: -1.8% v -1.9% prior
- (PL) Poland Q1 Final GDP Q/Q: 1.1%e v 1.1% prelim; Y/Y: 3.3%e v 3.3% prelim
- (NO) Norway Q1 Manufacturing Wage Index Q/Q: -0.1% v +1.3% prior
- (NO) Norway Central Bank (Norges) Jun Daily FX Purchases: 0M v 0Me
- (CZ) Czech Apr M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 4.8% v 5.1% prior
- (AT) Austria May Bank Manufacturing PMI: 50.9 v 51.4 prior
- (ES) Spain Mar Current Account Balance: -1.8B v -2.8B prior
- (HK) Hong Kong Apr M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 8.6% v 7.1% prior
- (CN) Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) Weekly Copper Stockpiles: 91.9K v 92.7K prior
- (GR) Greece Mar Retail Sales Volume: -0.8% v +0.9% prior; Retail Sales value: -3.4% v -1.9% prior
- (IS) Iceland Apr Final Trade Balance (ISK): -6.9B v -7.0B prelim
- (IT) Italy May Preliminary CPI NIC incl. tobacco M/M: -0.1% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.6%e
- (IT) Italy May Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.1% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.5%e

Fixed Income:
- (IN) India sold total INR160B vs. INR160B indicated in 2022, 2028, 2030 and 2043 bonds

Indices [Stoxx50 +0.1%, FTSE 100 flat at 6,866
, DAX +0.2% at 9,961, CAC-40 -0.3% at 4,518, IBEX-35 +0.5% at 10,788, FTSE MIB +0.5% at 21,631, SMI -0.2% at 8,685, S&P 500 Futures -0.1% at 1,916]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open lower as the CAC-40 undperforms on shares of BNP, DAX hits another record high, Greek banks continue to report better than expected results amid lower provisions, Shares of Fenner (manufacturing and engineering firm) weighed down byprofit warning

By Sector
- Industrials
[Fenner FENR.UK -13% (profit warning)]
- Financials [BNP BNP.FR -5.5% (legal concerns)]
- Energy [Salamander Energy SMDR.UK +6% (renewed takeover speculation)]
- Utilities [EDF EDF.FR -2.5% (technical weakness cited, also France denied stake sale plan)]
- Stoxx600 sectors [Technology +0.4%, Energy +0.3%, Utilities +0.1%, Industrials +0.1%, Telecom flat, Consumer Cyclical flat; Financials -0.6%, Consumer Non-Cyclical -0.3%, Basic Materials -0.2%]

- ECB's Visco (Italy) commented that the ECB was ready to act if low inflation pattern continued and could use non-standard tools to deliver medium-term price stability.
Path to recovery neither short nor easy and added that banking union must be followed by common EU budget
- ECB/BOE paper on securitization confirmed authorities should consider rules to improve transparency of ABS market. Central banks could lower haircuts on ABS if risk assessment improved
- Eurogroup official noted that progress related to Greece would be assessed at meeting in June and political turmoil could not derail its fiscal reforms. Scheduled 1.0B loan tranche would not be released unless all requirements are met. Greece fiscal consolidation must be with strict timeline of its bail-out program
- Norway Central Bank (Norges) stated that it would not buy foreign exchange for oil fund in 2014 as FX revenues were likely to be sufficient to cover transfers this year
- Thailand Central Bank: 2014 GDP forecast of 2.7% was not easily achievable and would cut its 2014 Export growth target from 4.5% (*Note: Thailand has cut its GDP target four times since Oct)
- First Deputy Managing Director of IMF Lipton: BOJ might need to maintain pace of easing for extended period. BOJ should act fast if actual and expected inflation stagnated. BOJ easing was delivering anticipated effects and saw no need to increase asset purchases at this time to meet 2% inflation target sooner
- India Central Bank (RBI) gov Rajan stated that it was committed to bringing down Indian inflation and stressed that it was a big task in short term to revive economic growth. RBI pledged to bring inflation down and keep it low to maintain confidence in INR currency (Rupee). He hoped new govt could make progress reforming regulations
- (IN) India's gold import curbs may continue at least until July budget
- JPMorgan analyst commented that ECB efforts to stimulate lending might not succeed . ECB measures to reduce funding cost are negative for FICC
- JPMorgan Economist Kanno: No longer expects BoJ to implement additional easing in July; to keep QQE until at least Match 2015
(**Note: In early April, the firm noted that odds of immediate easing had receded further)

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- EUR/USD steady with dealers expectations regarding the extent of potential ECB action at next week's meeting intensifying
- The JPY currency maintained a firm tone overall fr the third straight session. BoJ's ongoing effort to end deflation was meeting with some success thus some dealers pondered if the BoJ would be switching policy focus. IMF report for Japan also concluded that the BoJ did not need to take further policy action at this stage, and that it would take longer to achieve the 2%Y inflation target
- China CNY currency (yuan) ends May +0.2% (first monthly yuan gain in 2014)

Political/In the Papers:
- (JP) Japan Econ Min Amari: Japan economy on firm track to recover despite the sales tax hike - financial press
- (JP) Japan Chief Cabinet Sec Suga: Prices are moving in line with govt expectations - financial press
- (JP) Japan Fin Min Aso: Q2 economic slowdown likely to be smaller than expectations; sees Q3 pick up to be fast - financial press
-(UK) BoE's Bean: There is no case to be made to raise interest rates immediately; expect rates to rise gradually and in small increments - press interview
- (UK) UK May GFK Consumer Confidence: 0 vs. -2e (first non-negative reading since Mar 2005)
- (US) Fed's George (non voter, hawk): Fed should raise rates shortly after the end of bond buying - policy conf (Stanford CA)
- (US) Fed's Lacker (hawkish, non-voter): Not too concerned about the Q1 GDP revision; Rate hikes will likely occur around Q2 of next year, but is data dependent

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (UR) Ukraine Parliament holds session after recent elections
- (GR) IMF Board meeting on Greece Loan program
- (ES) Spain PM Rajpy in Sitge
- (ZA) South Africa to sell I/L 2025, 2038 and 2046 Bonds
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Apr Industrial Production M/M: No est v -4.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v -1.3% prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Apr Retail Sales M/M: No est v -1.8% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.3% prior
- 06:00 (MY) Malaysia May M3 Money Supply Y/Y: No est v 5.9% prior
- 06:00 (EU) ECB Announces 3-Year LTRO Repayment vs. 6.8Be
- 06:10 (UK) DMO to sell 2.0B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month Bills

- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:30 (IN) India Forex Reserves w/e May 23rd: No est v $315.0B prior
- 08:00 (IN) India Q1 GDP Y/Y: 4.7%e v 4.7% prior; Preliminary GDP Annual Estimate: 4.7%e
- 08:00 (BR) Brazil Q1 GDP Q/Q: 0.2%e v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 2.0%e v 1.9% prior;
GDP 4Qtrs Accumulated: 2.4%e v 2.3% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) May Inflation Expectations: No est v 0.5% prior
- 08:00 (ZA) South Africa Apr Trade Balance (ZAR): -10.7Be v -11.4B prior
- 08:00 (ZA) South Africa Apr Budget Balance (ZAR): -35.0Be v -23.4B prior
- 08:00 (ES) Spain announces upcoming bonds
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk
- 08:30 (US) Apr Personal Income: 0.3%e v 0.5% prior; Personal Spending: 0.2%e v 0.9% prior
- 08:30 (US) Apr PCE Deflator M/M: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.6%e v 1.1% prior
- 08:30 (US) Apr PCE Core M/M: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.4%e v 1.2% prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Q1 Quarterly GDP Annualized: 1.8%e v 2.9% prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Mar GDP M/M: 0.1%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 2.3%e v 2.5% prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Apr Industrial Product Price M/M: 0.4%e v 0.4% prior; Raw Materials Price Index M/M: 0.5%e v 0.6% prior
- 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales
- 08:30 (US) Fed's Pianalto opens conference
- 09:00 (US) May ISM Milwaukee: 52.00e v 47.26 prior
- 09:00 (CL) Chile Apr Unemployment Rate: 6.7%e v 6.5% prior
- 09:00 (CL) Chile Apr Manufacturing Index Y/Y: -2.5%e v 0.8% prior
- 09:00 (CL) Chile Apr Retail Sales Y/Y: 4.5%e v 5.2% prior
- 09:00 (CL) Chile Apr Total Copper Production: No est v 485.6K tons prior
- 09:30 (BR) Brazil Apr Nominal Budget Balance (BRL): No est v -13.0B prior; Primary Budget Balance: 16.1Be v 3.6B prior; Net Debt to GDP Ratio: 34.2%e v 34.2% prior
- 09:30 (PT) ECB's Costa (Portugal) in Parliament
- 09:45 (US) May Chicago Purchasing Manager: 61.0e v 63.0 prior
- 09:55 (US) May Final University of Michigan Confidence: 82.5e v 81.8 prelim

- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Apr Net Outstanding Loans (MXN): No est v 2.502T prior
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $0.85-1.10B in Notes
- 12:00 (CO) Colombia Apr National Unemployment Rate: No est v 9.7% prior; Urban Unemployment Rate: 10.1%e v 10.5% prior
- 14:00 (US) Fed's Lacker speaks at Stanford
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Apr Construction Activity M/M: No est v 2.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v -4.2% prior
- 15:30 (MX) Mexico Apr YTD Budget Balance (MXN): -80.2Be v -61.9B prior
- 17:00 (US) Fed's Williams and Plosser speak at Stanford
- (CO) Colombia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to raise Overnight Lending Rate by 25bps to 3.75%


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