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ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS - ECB TO DELIVER FURTHER STIMULUS

ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS  FRIDAY 30 MAY 2014

 

ECB TO DELIVER FURTHER STIMULUS

  • Markets await scale of ECB stimulus against a subdued inflation background
  • US data to suggest strong rebound in Q2 activity
  • Bank of England to stand pat amid more mixed data

ECB poised to act... At the press conference following the May ECB meeting, President Draghi hinted strongly that the ECB was primed to loosen policy in June, although he stopped short of pre-committing, deferring any decision until after the publication of the latest staff economic projections. Since then, market participants have been widely speculating over the likely outcome, with comments from various Council members providing only limited insight into possible measures. The coming week’s Council meeting will end this speculation. We expect the ECB to announce a range of policy measures, headlined by a 15bps cut in the refi rate to 0.10%, with broadly similar cuts expected in both the marginal lending and deposit rates, pushing the latter into negative territory. This may be supplemented by additional liquidity measures, the most likely options are: an extension of the fixed rate full allotment policy; non-sterilisation of the SMP programme; and/or a ‘targeted’ longer-dated LTRO. Although there has been some talk of an ABS purchase programme or even outright QE, we think these are less likely.    


Weak euro area inflation... In the run up to the ECB meeting, the preliminary reading of May euro area inflation (Tues) is expected to post its eight consecutive sub 1% outturn. Subdued readings from Spain, Italy and Belgium this week, are expected to be mirrored in the German estimate (Mon), with the aggregate euro area reading forecast to be unchanged at 0.7%. While this is unlikely to significantly alter the mindset of the ECB Council ahead of Thursday, it should serve to underscore the pressing need for further stimulus. 


UK policy debate more balanced... The MPC also delivers its latest policy verdict on Thursday with the Committee set to keep Bank Rate and the size of the APF unchanged. However, comments over the past week from Martin Weale reiterated his hawkish bias. Nevertheless, with changes in the composition of the Committee set to impact from June, he is likely to remain in the minority for some time. The coming week’s data are expected to highlight that the domestic growth outlook remains upbeat, with the PMIs expected to point to continued robust expansion, albeit softer than the previous month.


US GDP to rebound in Q2.... The big news in the US over the past week was the downward revision to Q1 GDP growth to a fall of 1% annualised - the first quarterly decline for three years. However, as this was mostly due to less inventory accumulation, it increases the potential for a strong rebound in Q2. With final demand also expected to bounce back strongly after being depressed by exceptionally cold weather in Q1, we expect GDP growth of 4% annualised in the current quarter.


Strong payrolls number expected for May... The coming week will see the first of the important US economic indicators for May, culminating in the employment report on Friday. We forecast payrolls to show a gain of 215k, which would be the fourth consecutive monthly rise in excess of 200k. Employment growth so far this year has been quicker than in 2013, suggesting the GDP data may be underestimating activity. Markets will also closely watch other parts of the labour market report - in particular the unemployment rate, which we expect to remain steady at a recovery low of 6.3%, and average earnings growth, which should accelerate modestly. Earlier in the week the ISM manufacturing (Mon) and non-manufacturing (Weds) surveys for May should signal a further acceleration following their April gains. 


And finally... The Chinese PMI for May is expected to provide signs of stabilisation following a recent slowdown in manufacturing activity.

 

 

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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