Sunday August 14, 2005 - 02:27:22 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the Euro vs U.S. Dollar 15th August 2005 Price:
Resistance: 1.2445 ... 1.2485 ... 1.2503 ... 1.2533
Support....: 1.2414 ... 1.2396 ... 1.2366 ... 1.2341
Target met and while there may be initial consolidation we look for losses to 1.2330-40
The rally was held perfectly within the 1.2481-88 area given on Friday and with strong bearish divergences we feel the upside has little room. There is resistance at 1.2445-50 and only above here would risk a second test at 1.2488. However, only above Friday's high and also 1.2503 would imply further gains moving through to 1.2589 at least. Further resistance is found at 1.2630-51.
Price was capped perfectly by our 1.2481-88 resistance area and while we have seen an initial move lower there has been no confirmation of a larger reversal. Early Monday could see some sideways consolidation but holding below 1.2450-88 but we need loss of 1.2396 to trigger the anticipated follow-through lower to below 1.2381 and onto the 1.2330-40 support area which we feel should cause a pullback. Only loss would cause additional losses to the 1.2250-65 area.
Elliott Wave Comments:
12th August 2005
Cautiously we feel that we have seen Wave v complete at 1.2475-81 and this is labeled as Wave -a- and we now expect Wave -b- to develop. Although it is early to judge we note support around 1.2330 and a 50% retracement at 1.2220 which is close to the 1.2250 pivot support.
15th August 2005
In spite of the marginal high seen on Friday we continue to consider the peak at 1.2485 as being the completion of Wave -a- and that the first retracement should be to the 1.2330-40 area being the extreme of the last Wave iv and where we have a small wave equality target formed by the initial wave a low to 1.2381 and Wave b at 1.2445. This should cause a pullback and consolidation but overall we would expect a 50% pullback to the 1.2224 area which is just below the 1.2250 pivot support to form Wave -b-.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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