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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: June begins with expectations of more market volatility; German State CPI data likely confirming that the ECB will cut rates later this week


Mon, 02 Jun 2014 5:15 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Market participants hoping that this week begins that long-anticipated pick-up in volatility with numerous risk events on the agenda (ECB meeting/US payrolls as examples)
- China May Manufacturing PMI registers its 3rd consecutive increase and 5-month high (50.8 vs. 50.7e); aids overall risk sentiment
- Australia Apr Building Approvals registers its largest decline in 10 months (-5.6% vs. +2.0%e)
- Various German State CPI data weaker MoM and suggest a probably downside surprise in German national CPI later today; Cements sentiment that ECB will ease later this week; German 2-year Schatz yields drop to two-year lows near 0.044%
- Major European PMI Manufacturing comes in mixed

***Economic Data***
- (ID) Indonesia Apr Trade Balance: -$2.0B v +0.2Be; Exports Y/Y: -3.2% v +2.0%e ; Imports Y/Y: -1.3% v -9.1%e
- (ID) Indonesia May CPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 7.3% v 7.3%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 4.8% v 4.8%e
- (TH) Thailand May CPI M/M: 0.4% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 2.6% v 2.5%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.7%e
- (JP) Japan May Vehicle Sales Y/Y: -5.6% v -11.4% prior (second straight month ly of decline following sales tax hike)
- (IN) India May HSBC India Manufacturing PMI: 51.4 v 51.3 prior; (7th month of expansion and highest since Feb)
- (RU) Russia May HSBC Russia Manufacturing PMI: 48.9 v 49.0e; (7th month of contraction but highest reading since Nov)

- (SE) Sweden May PMI Manufacturing: 54.1 v 54.6e; 13th month of expansion
- (AU) Australia May Commodity Index Y/Y: 12.8% v -12.6% prior; Commodity Index AUD: 97.4 v 98.4 prior
- (DE) Germany May CPI Saxony M/M: -0.1% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 0.8% v 1.3% prior
- (DK) Denmark Apr Unemployment Rate: 3.9% v 4.0% prior; Gross Unemployment Rate: 5.0% v 5.1% prior
- (HU) Hungary Mar Final Trade Balance: 687.5M v 675.0M prior
- (NL) Netherlands May Manufacturing PMI: 53.6 v 53.4 prior; 11th month of expansion
- (NO) Norway May Manufacturing PMI: 49.8 v 51.2e; first contraction in 10 months
- (HU) Hungary May Manufacturing PMI: 53.9 v 54.6 prior; 10th straight month of expansion
- (TR) Turkey May HSBC Turkey Manufacturing PMI: 50.1 v 51.1 prior; 10th month of expansion but slowest since Aug
- (PL) Poland May Manufacturing PMI: 50.8 v 52.1e; 11th straight expansion but an 11 month low
- (CH) SNB: Swiss sight deposits for week ended May 23rd (CHF): 304.04B v 304.1B prior
- (EU) ECB 64M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 309.0M prior; 39.9B parked in deposit facility vs. 33.2B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (ES) Spain May Manufacturing PMI: 52.9 v 53.0e; highest since Apr 2010, 6th straight month of expansion
- (CH) Swiss May PMI Manufacturing: 52.5 v 55.1e; lowest reading since Jun 2013

- (CZ) Czech Republic May Manufacturing PMI: 57.3 v 55.9e; 13th month of expansion and highest since Apr 2011
- (SE) Sweden Mar Non-Manual Workers Wages Y/Y: 2.6% v 2.7% prior
- (IT) Italy May Manufacturing PMI: 53.2 v 53.6e ; 11th straight month of expansion
- (FR) France May Final Manufacturing PMI: 49.6 v 49.3e; confirms first contraction since Jan (4-month low)
- (DE) Germany May Final Manufacturing PMI: 52.3 v 52.9e; confirms 11th straight month of expansion but lowest since Oct 2013
- (EU) Euro Zone May Final Manufacturing PMI: 52.2 v 52.5e; confirms 11th straight month of growth but lowest since Nov 2013

- (GR) Greece May Manufacturing PMI: 51.0 v 51.1 prior (second straight month of growth)
- (DE) Germany May CPI Brandenburg M/M: -0.2% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 0.8 v 1.3% prior
- (DE) Germany May CPI Hesse M/M: -0.2% v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 0.7% v 1.3% prior
- (DE) Germany May CPI Bavaria M/M: -0.1% v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 0.6% v 1.0% prior
- (NO) Norway Apr Credit Indicator Growth Y/Y: 5.6 v 5.7%e
- (UK) May UK PMI Manufacturing: 57.0 v 57.0e
- (UK) Apr Net Consumer Credit: 0.7B v 0.8Be; Net Lending: 1.7B v 1.7Be
- (UK) Apr Mortgage Approvals: 62.9K v 64.5Ke; lowest since Jun 2013
- (UK) Apr M4 Money Supply M/M: -0.2% v -2.3% prior; Y/Y: -0.6% v -0.3% prior ; M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualized: 4.5% v 3.4% prior
- (DE) Germany May CPI North Rhine Westphalia M/M: -0.2% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.7% prior
- (ZA) South Africa May Kagiso Manufacturing PMI: 44.3 v 47.8e; second straight contraction
- (DK) Denmark May PMI Survey: 60.2 v 60.7 prior

Fixed Income:
- (PH) Philippines sold total PHP20B vs. PHP20B indicated in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month Bills

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Equities***
Indices [Stoxx50 +0.1%, FTSE 100 +0.2% at 6,859, DAX +0.2% at 9,960, CAC-40 -0.2% at 4,511, IBEX-35 +0.6% at 10,859, FTSE MIB +0.4% at 21,708, SMI +0.1% at 8,682, S&P 500 Futures flat at 1,922]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open higher following positive leads from Tokyo ahead of key event risks for the week (ECB meeting, US payrolls), DAX trades at yet another record high, European PMI manufacturing data generally below expectations, China PMI continues to improve, Broker commentary weighs on shares of BNP, European banks continue to trade mixed into ECB meeting

By Sector
- Financials
[BNP BNP.FR -1% (broker commentary)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Fraport FRA.DE -1% (ex dividend)]
- Energy [Det Norske DETNOR.NO +5% (acquisition)]
- Healthcare [Orion ORNBV.FI +12% (collaboration agreement with Bayer)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Basic Materials +0.6%, Industrials +0.5%, Technologies +0.4%, Financials +0.1%, Energy +0.1%,Utilities flat; Telecom -0.2%, Consumer Cyclical -0.1%, Consumer Non-Cyclical -0.1%]

Speakers:
- ECB source story stated that rate cut into negative territory issue has been 'settled' and decision would likely include liquidity provisions.
Says size of deposit rate (either 0.10% or 0.15%) cut linked to ECB's staff HICP forecasts. Questions remained as to the timing and amount in credit easing. ECB likely to agree conditional SME lending support and might make targeted ABS purchases later in the year
- BoE Deputy Gov Cunliffe: Banks need incentives to take ABS risk and sestarting lending is a key priority
- Fed's Evans (dove, alternate) reiterated that he saw US inflation remaining low for some time. Wage growth was stable and stressed that the Fed's accommodative policy seemed appropriate. US avg inflation since Dec 2007 below 2% objective, expectation was we well continue to underrun 2% inflation. He also reiterated inflation objective is 2% but that is not a ceiling.
- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Dep Gov Jansson stated that inflation target remained the cornerstone of central bank policy and the further inflation moved away from the target the more weight it would have
- Russia's Energy Minister stated that Ukraine paid for Feb-March gas supplies. Gazprom [GAZP.RU] confirmed that it received approx $786M from Ukraine
- Russia Foreign Min Lavrov: To submit UN Security Resolution on Ukraine calling for cease-fire and peaceful talks. Russia sought to create humanitarian corridors in Ukraine
- US said to be considering aiding Ukraine border guards
- Spain said to have added 150K workers paying social security taxes in May aided by the tourism industry (compares to +133.8K in April
- Hungary Econ Min Varga: FX loan fix should not threaten the banking sector stability. Looking to phase-out FX Loans after High court ruling and its fix should not threaten the banking sector stability
- Spain King Juan Carlos to abdicating his throne (**Note: health has been ailing for several years)
- Indonesia Central Bank (BI) stated that it saw inflation picking up in June and July period
- Thailand Commerce Ministry stated that it was expecting inflationary pressure to remain high boosted by a weak THB currency (Baht) and high agricultural prices. It forecasted Q2 Headline CPI seen at 2.5% and at 2.25% in H1

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The Euro remained on the defensive with the various German State CPI data likely confirming that the ECB will cut rates later this week
. Thus dealers concluded it was best to short position into the expecting easing but will Draghi deliver?. The pair continued to hover just above recent three-month low of 1.3686

Political/In the Weekend Papers:
-(EU) ECB said to be working on a up-to 40B lending program for small business - German press
-(EU) Moody's: EU elections are credit positive for Italy, credit negative for France and Greece
- (SI) Slovenia to hold snap parliamentary elections on July 13th - press
- (PT) Portugal Constitutional Court ruled that some budget measures are unconstitutional. Court ruled against 3 of 4 austerity measures in the 2014 budget worth 0.7-1.0B
-(GR) German Fin Min Schaeuble: Possible that "Greece might require further aid, of a limited amount" - German press; Says: "It would be significantly lower than the two previous rescue packages -- meaning no more than 10 billion euros."
-(GR) Greece Finance Ministry: The financing needs of our country are covered as everybody knows and Eurogroup acknowledges, until the end of the first semester of 2015; For the 2015-2016 period, our country's financing needs will depend on the results of the bank tests conducted by the European Central Bank."
-(GR) IMF Confirms approval of $4.64B disbursement for Greece following conclusion of the 5th review in bailout program - press
- (ES) Spain PM Rajoy announces new stimulus plan that includes 6.3B in investment and a cut in corporate tax rates - financial press
-(UK) PM Cameron: UK may leave the EU if JC Juncker becomes the next president of EC - German press
-(US) Fed's Williams (dove, FOMC non-voter): Expecting a snap back in growth in Q2; this year's GDP seen at 2.5%;
-(US) Fed's Plosser (hawk, FOMC voter): Reiterates Q1 data will make a dent in full year outlook; will be tough to reach my 3% GDP target;

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (ZA) South Africa May Naamsa Vehicle Sales Y/Y: No est v -10.7% prior
- (DE) Germany May CPI Baden Wuerttemberg M/M: No est v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.4% prior
- (CZ) Czech May Budget Balance (CZK): No est v 26.6B prior
- (RO) Romania May International Reserves: No est v $35.6B prior
- (RU) Russia May Reserve Fund: No est v $87.9B prior; Wellbeing Fund: No est v $87.6B
- (IT) Italy May Budget Balance: No est v -10.1B prior
- (CL) Chile Central Bank Meeting Minutes
- 06:00 (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) to sell 2-4B in 3-month and 9-month Bills
- 06:00 (TR) Turkey to sell 2019 and 2024 bonds
- 06:30 (EU) ECB's Mersch (Luxembourg) speaks in Amsterdam
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fxing
- 07:15 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel meets Georgia's Garibashvili for talks in Berlin
- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
- 07:45 (EU) EU single resolution mechanism (SSM) incoming chief Nouy in Munich
- 08:00 (DE) Germany May Preliminary CPI M/M: +0.1%e v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.1%e v 1.3% prior
- 08:00 (DE) Germany May Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: No est v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: 1.2%e v 1.3% prior
- 08:00 (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) announces size of upcoming 2017 and 2019 bond sale
- 08:15 Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:50 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell combined 6.5-7.7B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month Bills
- 09:00 (BR) Brazil May Manufacturing PMI: No est v 49.3 prior
- 09:30 (MX) Mexico My Manufacturing PMI: No est v 51.8 prior
- 09:30 (CA) Canada May RBC Manufacturing PMI: No est v 52.9 prior
- 09:30 (EU) EU to release Country-Specific recommendations in Brussels
- 09:30 (EU) ECB announces amount in next 7-day Term Deposit Tender to offset govt bond purchases under SMP
- 09:35 (EU) ECB calls for Bids in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender at fixed 0.25%
- 09:45 (US) May Final Manufacturing PMI: No est v 56.2 prior
- 10:00 (US) May ISM Manufacturing: 55.5e v 54.9 prior; Prices Paid: No est v 56.5 prior
- 10:00 (US) Apr Construction Spending M/M: 0.5%e v 0.2% prior

- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Apr Total Remittances: No est v $2.1B prior
- 10:15 (EU) EU's Rehn Briefs on Country Recommendations in Brussels
- 10:30 (ES) ECB's Linde in Madrid
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $48B in 3-month and 6-month Bills
- 12:00 (IT) Italy May New Car Registrations Y/Y: No est v 2.0% prior
- 13:00 (MX) Mexico May IMEF Manufacturing Index: No est v 51.1 prior; Non-Manufacturing Index: No est v 50.6 prior
- 14:00 (BR) Brazil May Trade Balance: No est v $506M prior; Total Exports: No est v $19.7B prior; Total Imports: No est v $19.2B prior
- 19:00 (KR) South Korea May CPI M/M: 0.1%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.6%e v 155 prior; CPI Core Y/Y: No est v 2.3% prior
- 21:00 (CN) China May Non-manufacturing PMI: No est v 54.8 prior
- 21:30 (AU) Australia Apr Retail Sales M/M: No est v 0.1% prior
- 21:45 (CN) China May Final Manufacturing PMI: 49.6e v 49.7 prelim

- (JP) World Economic Forum in Japan

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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