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Wednesday June 4, 2014 - 15:26:53 GMT
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| | Email US Market Update: ADP Disappoints, Markets Positioning for ECB Action, US May Jobs Report

Wed, 04 Jun 2014 10:55 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (IE) Ireland Apr Industrial Production M/M: 2.1% v 5.0% prior; Y/Y: 10.6% v 10.2% prior
- (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e May 30th: -3.1% v -1.2% prior
- (BR) Brazil Apr Industrial Production M/M: -0.3% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: -5.8% v -6.1%e
- (RU) Russia May CPI M/M: 0.9% v 0.9%e; Y/Y: 7.6% v 7.6%e; CPI YTD: 4.2% v 4.2%e
- (RU) Russia May CPI Core M/M: 0.9% v 0.8%e; Core YTD: 7.0% v 6.9%e
- (US) May ADP Employment Change: +179K v +210Ke
- (US) Apr Trade Balance: -$47.2B v -$40.8Be
- (US) Q1 Final Nonfarm Productivity: -3.2% v -3.0%e; Unit Labor Costs: 5.7% v 5.3%e
- (CA) Canada Apr Int'l Merchandise Trade: -C$640M v +C$200Me
- (US) Brazil May Services PMI: 50.4 v 50.4 prior; Composite PMI: 49.8 v 49.9 prior
- (US) May Final Markit Services PMI: 58.1 v 58.2e; Composite PMI: 58.4 v 58.6 prelim
- (US) May ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite: 56.3 v 55.5e
- (CA) Bank of Canada (BOC) leaves Interest Rates unchanged at 1.00%, as expected
- (US) DOE Crude: -3.43M v 0Me; Gasoline: +210K v +0.5Me; Distillate: +2M v +1Me

- The slightly disappointing ADP data contributed to follow-on weakness from European markets to keep futures in the red before the open this morning. The S&P500 has regained some ground in midmorning trading but remains in the red. As of writing, the DJIA is down 0.14%, the S&P500 is down 0.06% while the Nasdaq is back in the green, up 0.16%

- Anticipation is running high ahead of tomorrow's ECB decision, and many analysts believe that most investors are now already in their preferred position ahead of the meeting. Rate cuts seem to be a given and another LTRO would not ruffle many feathers, but outright QE seems unlikely. EUR/USD has fluctuated in the lower half of the 1.3600 handle.

- The ADP data provided a preliminary look at how Friday's May US jobs report may turn out, but keep in mind that while the ADP has gotten better at tracking the Labor Department's jobs data, it's far from perfect. The ADP fell short of expectations at +179K new private sector jobs. After yesterday's ISM debacle, there was some anticipation heading into today's May ISM non-manufacturing data. The Markit services PMI increased to 58.1 from 55.0 in April, while the ISM services rose to 56.3 from 55.2 in April. The new orders component was especially strong, rising to 60.5, its highest level since January 2011, from 58.2 in April.

- Pandora shares fell nearly 6% in premarket trade after the company disclosed May operating metrics. The numbers were not too bad, with listener hours +28% y/y in the month and its share of total US radio listening up to 9.13% from 7.29% a year ago. Active listeners were up 9% y/y, better than the April and March reports. Pandora shares are only down 2% as of writing.

- Homebuilder Hovnanian is down nearly 3% in the early going after missing expectations in its first quarter report and disclosing a loss in the quarter. Total home deliveries declined 6.5% y/y in the quarter, and executives highlighted that while March contract signings were strong, April and May was choppy. The company expects to be profitable for all of FY14, but profitability is expected to be more back-end weighted.

- Chinese solar names are losing ground this morning after the US placed a fresh round of import duties on imported Chinese solar products. The move comes SolarWorld AG filed a petition complaining that Chinese manufacturers sidestepped earlier duties by shifting production to Taiwan. The new import duties cover panels made with parts from Taiwan. Shares of YGE are down nearly 7%, JKS and HSOL are off 5% and TSL is down 4%; meanwhile SPWR is up 6.5%. Separately, there is chatter making the rounds that activist investor Carl Icahn is building a stake in First Solar. FSLR is up 3%.

***Looking Ahead***
- 11:30 (BR) Brazil May Commodity Price Index M/M: +0.2%e v -2.5% prior; Y/Y: No est v 17.0% prior
- 11:30 (BR) Brazil weekly Currency Flows
- 14:00 (US) Fed Beige Book
- 14:00 (EU) Group of Seven (G7) Leaders begin meeting in Brussels
- 17:00 (CO) Colombia May PPI M/M: No est v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: No est v 3.4% prior
- 17:00 (CO) Colombia Exports: $4.7Be v $4.4B prior
- 19:00 (KR) South Korea Q1 Final GDP Q/Q: No est v 0.9% prelim; Y/Y: No est v 3.9% prelim
- 21:30 (JP) BOJ's Sato
- 21:30 (AU) Australia Apr Trade Balance: A$510Me v A$731M prior
- 21:45 (CN) China HSBC Services PMI: No est v 51.4 prior; Composite PMI: No est v 49.5 prior




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