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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: ECB policy announcement takes center stage


Thu, 05 Jun 2014 5:15 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Australia Apr Trade Balance registers its fist deficit in six months (-A$122M v +A$510Me)
- China HSBC Services PMI hits 4-month low (50.7 v 51.4 prior)
- ECB takes center stage and Draghi must deliver on recent rhetoric

***Economic Data***
- (IE) Ireland May Services PMI: 61.7 v 61.9 prior (22nd straight month of expansion); Composite PMI: 59.4 v 60.8 prior
- (FR) France Q1 ILO Unemployment Rate: 10.1% v 10.4%e; Mainland Unemployment Rate: 9.7% v 9.9%e; Mainland Unemployment Change: +23K v +20Ke
- (DE) Germany Apr Factory Orders M/M: 3.1% v 1.4%e; Y/Y: 6.3% v 4.6%e
- (FI) Finland Q1 GDP Q/Q: -0.4% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: -0.6% v -0.6%e
- (UK) May Halifax House Prices M/M: 3.9% v 0.7%e; 3M/Y: 8.7% v 7.5%e
- (CZ) Czech Apr Retail Sales Y/Y: 6.0% v 6.0%e
- (CZ) Czech Q1 Average Real Monthly Wage Y/Y: 3.1% v 2.0%e
- (HU) Hungary Apr Preliminary Industrial Production M/M: 2.4% v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 10.1% v 7.0%e
- (EU) ECB 73M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 6.0M prior; 32.7B parked in deposit facility vs. 37.9B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (DE) Germany May Construction PMI: 48,1 v 49.7 prior; 2nd straight month of contraction
- (UK) May New Car Registrations Y/Y: 7.7% v 8.2% prior
- UN Foods and Agricultural Organization (FAO) May World Food Prices Y/Y: 207.8 v 210.3 prior
- (EU) Euro Zone May Retail PMI: 49.9 v 51.2 prior
- (DE) Germany May Retail PMI: 52.5 v 53.1 prior
- (FR) France May Retail PMI: 50.5 v 50.3 prior
- (IT) Italy May Retail PMI: 45.2 v 49.5 prior
- (TW) Taiwan May Foreign Reserves: $421.7B v $421.5B prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Apr Retail Sales M/M: 0.4% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 2.4% v 1.2%e
- (CY) Cyprus May CPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: -1.4% v -1.6% prior
- (GR) Greece Mar Unemployment Rate: 26.8% v 26.4%e

Fixed Income:
- (ES) Spain Debt Agency sold total 4.55B vs. 3.5-4.5B indicated range in 2017 and 2019 bonds

- Sold 2.143B in 2.1% Apr 2017 bono; Avg Yield: 0.968% v 1.039% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.0x v 3.17x prior; Maximum Yield: 0.987% v 1.055% prior; Tail: 1.9bps v 1.6bps prior
- Sold 2.406B in 2.75% Apr 2019 Bono; Avg yield 1.520% v 1.648% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.8x v 1.91x prior; Maximum Yield 1.540% v 1.671% prior; Tail 2.0bps v 2.3bps prior
- (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) sold total 8.498B vs. 7.5-8.5B indicated rate in 2022, 2024 and 2030 Oats
- Sold 968M in 3.00% Apr 2022 OAT; avg yield 1.38% v 2.21% prior; Bid-to-cover: 4.3x v 2.1x prior
- Sold 5.39B in new 1.75% Nov 2024 Oat; Avg Yield: 1.96% v 2.37% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.73x v 1.88x prior
- Sold 2.14B in 2.50% May 2030 Oat; Avg Yield 2.54% v 2.64%; Bid-to-cover: 3.2x v 2.21 x prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Equities***
Indices [Stoxx50 +0.1%
FTSE 100 -0.2% at 6,801, DAX -0.1% at 9,912, CAC-40 flat at 4,504, IBEX-35 flat at 10,766, FTSE MIB +0.7% at 21,768, SMI flat at 8,660, S&P 500 Futures flat at 1,925]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Cautious trading continues ahead of ECB meeting, Smith & Nephew benefits from renewed M&A speculation, UK retailer Asos warns on outlook, Athens Stock Exchange (ASE) rises on positive broker commentary related to banking sector

By Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
[Asos ASC.UK -35% (profit warning), Remy RCO.FR +0.5% (FY profits in line with guidance); Bellway BWY.UK +2% (Feb-May sales +11%)
- Technology [Yoox YOOX.IT -5% (underperforms broader market)]
- Energy [DNO International DNO.NO +6% (production milestone)]
- Healthcare [Santhera SANN.CH +8% (positive commentary from EMA), Cellectis ALCLS.FR +3% (agreement with Thermo Fisher), Smith & Nephew SN.UK +3.5% (renewed takeover speculation); Stada SAZ.DE 3% (ex-dividend)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Technology +0.9%, Utilities +0.3%, Consumer Non-Cyclical +0.3%, Telecom +0.3%, Industrials +0.1%, Energy +0.1%; Consumer Cyclical -0.2%, Financials -0.2%, Basic Materials -0.2%]

Speakers:
- EU single resolution mechanism (SSM) incoming chief Nouy:
Supervision would ensure a level playing field. ECB quality asset review is on track
- Poland Defense Min Siemioniak: Seek permanent US troop presence in country
- Russia Central Bank Dep Gov Yudaeva: Ukraine sanctions to have limited effect on Russia. RUB currency (Ruble) and financial markets had stabilized rate hike while accelerating inflation was a big concern. Central bank retains inflation-targeting goal but low growth with low unemployment was a challenge
- Greece Revenue chief Theoharis said to consider resigning
- IMF's Lipton stated that there was no evidence of a significant slowdown in China and thus PBoC should not consider a broad interest rate cut. Improving global outlook should support China exports. He reiterated China's 2014 growth forecast of 7.5% (in line with China government's 'elastic' target) but that China 2015 GDP target should use 7.0% for sustainable growth. He reiterated Yuan currency was 'moderately undervalued' and govt should continue to widen yuan trading band. China's major challenge was to strengthen local govt finances. He saw conditions are ripe" for deposit rate liberalization. China property market correction was underway and needed for the country
- Libya Supreme Court: Election of Ahmed Maiteeq as PM was illegal
- Yemen Army spokesperson: Killed over 500 militants in offensive against Al-Qaeda

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- ECB takes center stage with market expectations that Draghi must deliver on recent rhetoric. Participants are expecting cut in all three key rates as well as possible alternative measures
(e.g. conditional LTRO to boost lending to SMEs and an end to SMP sterilization). Dealers suggesting that they would sell any EUR rally due to a disappointing ECB. The key level heading into the decision are 1.4050 resistance and 1.3475 support. Dealers also note that peripheral yields could push higher again if there is no announcement of ECB bond purchases. FX price action was little change as the NY morning approached with EUR/USD holding above recent 4-month lows and the 1.3600 level

Political/In the Weekend Papers:
-(ES) Spain plans to cut corporate tax rate from 30% to 25% when it unveils the budget later this week - press
-(UK) BoE's Sharp: UK economy remains fragile, there are risks emanating from Asia, risks from higher rates; Financial Policy Committee (FPC) will take proportionate and graduated actions to deal with the housing situation
- (AU) JPMorgan: No longer expects RBA to cut interest rate; Expects next RBA move to be rate hike in Q3 2015
-(JP) BoJ's Sato: Sees risk Euro zone may suffer from prolonged period of disinflation mainly in peripheral nations
- (US) Fed's Beige Book retaining upbeat tone, noting growth was modest to moderate in most regions, consumer spending expanded, lending increased, and labor market strengthened. Fed continues to see inflation under control though - "wage pressures subdued" and "price pressures contained."

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (RU) Sec of State Kerry to meet Russia Foreign Min Lavrov in Paris
- (IL) Israel May Foreign Currency Balance: No est v $86.5B prior
- (MX) Mexico Banamex Survey of Economists
- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 12-Month Bills
- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell Floating Bonds
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland May Live Register Monthly Change: No est v -3.4K prior; Unemployment Rate: No est v 11.7% prior
- 06:00 (PL) Poland to sell PLN3.0-5.0B in 2025 and 2028 bonds
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (UK) Bank of England (BOE) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave both Interest Rates and Asset Purchase Target (APT) unchanged at 0.50% and 375B respectively
- 07:00 (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e May 30th: No est v $468.4B prior
- 07:00 (ZA) South Africa Apr Electricity Production Y/Y: No est v -1.2% prior; Electricity Consumption Y/Y: No est v 0.7% prior
- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank (BDB) COPOM Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
- 07:30 (US) May Challenger Job Cuts: No est v 40.3K prior; Y/Y: No est v 5.7% prior
- 07:30 (US) Jun RBC Consumer Outlook Index: No est v 50.1 prior
- 07:45 (EU) ECB Interest Rate Decision: Expected to cut key rates: Main Refi Rate expected to be cut by 15bps to 0.10%; Deposit Facility Rate expected to be cut by 10bps to -0.10%; Marginal Lending Facility expected to be cut by 15bps to 0.60%
- 08:15 Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 310Ke v 300K prior; Continuing Claims: 2.63Me v 2.631M prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Apr Building Permits M/M: +4.2%e v -3.0% prior
- 08:30 (CL) Chile Apr Economic Activity M/M: 0.2%e v -0.4% prior (revised from -0.2%); Y/Y: 2.4%e v 3.0% (revised from 2.8%)
- 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales
- 08:30 (EU) ECB'S Draghi holds post rate decision press conference
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico May Consumer Confidence Index: 90.3e v 90.3 prior
- 09:00 (CL) Chile Apr Real Wage M/M: No est v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.2% prior
- 09:30 (BR) Brazil May Vehicle Production: No est v 277.1K prior; Vehicle Sales: No est v 293.2K prior; Vehicle Exports: No est v 36.7K prior
- 10:00 (CA) Canada May Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (Seasonaly Adj): 56.0e v 54.1 prior; PMI Unadj: No est v 51.1 prior
- 10:00 (UR) US Senate hearing on Ukraine crisis
- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- 11:00 (US) Treasury 3-year, 10-year and 30-year refunding announcement
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $2.25-2.75B in bonds
- 11:00 (BR) Brazil to sell 2015, 2016 and 2018 Bills
- 11:00 (BR) Brazil to sell 2020 Floating-rate Notes
- 12:00 (US) Q1 Household Change in Net Worth: No est v $2.954T prior
- 13:30 (US) Fed's Kocherlakota speaks on Interest Rates in Boston

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Mon 20 Nov
14:00 EZ- Draghi Speech
15:00 US- Leading Indicators
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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