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TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: ECB Makes Its Move

 
Thu, 05 Jun 2014 11:11 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (IL) Israel May Foreign Currency Balance: $86.5B v $86.5B prior
- (ZA) South Africa May SACCI Business Confidence: 88.9 v 92.6 prior
- (IE) Ireland May Live Register Monthly Change: -1.6K v -3.0K prior; Unemployment Rate: 11.8% v 11.8% prior
- (UK) Bank of England (BOE) left both Interest Rates and Asset Purchase Target (APT) unchanged at 0.50% and 375B respectively, as expected
- (ZA) South Africa Apr Electricity Production Y/Y: -1.1% v -1.2% prior; Electricity Consumption Y/Y: 0.0% v 0.7% prior
- (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e May 30th: $466.9B v $468.4B prior
- (US) May Challenger Job Cuts: 53.0K v 40.3K prior; Y/Y: 45.5% v 5.7% prior
- (US) Jun RBC Consumer Outlook Index: 51.0 v 50.1 prior
- (EU) ECB cut key rates (as expected): Main Refi Rate cut by 10bps to 0.15% (less than expected); Deposit Facility Rate cut by 10bps to -0.10% (as expected)
- (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 312K v 310Ke; Continuing Claims: 2.603M v 2.63Me
- (CA) Canada Apr Building Permits M/M: 1.1%4.2%e
- (CL) Chile Apr Economic Activity M/M: 0.0% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.3% v 2.4%e
- (MX) Mexico May Consumer Confidence Index: 90.7 v 90.3e
- (CL) Chile Apr Real Wage M/M: -0.2% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 2.3% v 2.2% prior
- (BR) Brazil May Vehicle Production: 282.5K v 277.1K prior; Vehicle Sales: 293.4 v 293.2K prior; Vehicle Exports: 35.2 v 36.7K prior
- (CA) Canada May Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (Seasonaly Adj): 48.2 v 56.0e
- (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories: +119 bcf v +115-119 bcf expected range

- The package of ECB rate cuts and liquidity measures announced this morning goosed European indices higher this morning but the mild adrenaline high didn't last. The move higher ran out of gas just about when ECB President Draghi said at the post-decision press conference that, for all practical purposes, the ECB has reached the lower bound of interest rates. As of writing, the DJIA is up 0.15%, the S&P500 is up 0.08% and the Nasdaq is up 0.15%.

- As expected, the ECB cut all three key rates, most notably putting the deposit facility in negative territory for the first time ever. The central bank also announced a combination of measures ensure funding finds its way to the real economy: it extended the fixed rate, full allotment MROs by 18 months to the end of 2016, suspended SMP sterilization (which was failing anyhow) and teed up two more LTROs. In addition, the ECB reiterated that it was continuing work to set up ABS measures. Draghi insisted that all this was not the end of the measure the ECB would undertake to support the Eurozone economy, and emphasized that the council would take any action within its mandate to achieve price stability, including possible large-scale asset purchases. EUR/USD hit fresh four-month lows around 1.3500 at 09:00 but did not manage to get below the January low of 1.3477. The snapback over the last two hours put EUR/USD only a little higher than it was before the decision, around 1.3610.

- Recall that the ECB launched two three-year LTRO operations to cope with the euro crisis, in December 2011 and February 2012, allotting approximately 1.02T in funds. Analysts say that nearly all of the funding from the prior LTROs was invested in sovereign bonds, but this time around Draghi promises that ECB oversight will keep the funds flowing into the real economy, not government bonds. As of now, only 554.6B from the first two LTROs has been paid back, which is only a little more than the total 400B TLTRO funding announced today.

- There are more reports out detailing the state of negotiations between Sprint and T-Mobile, a week after press stories that said T-Mobile parent Deutsche Telekom gave Softbank a green light for Sprint to go after its US unit. Sprint's offer would be a 50/50 cash and stock deal, priced at approx $40/shr for an implied deal value around $32.2B. An RBC analyst aired some skepticism about the prospects of the merger garnering FCC or DoJ approval, and said that Dish could come in with a counter offer. Shares of Sprint tumbled in cash trading, bottoming out -5% earlier this morning. TMUS dropped as much as 3%.

- General Motors' CEO Mary Barra updated investors on the continuing internal investigation into her company's big recalls this morning. She said probe uncovered a troubling pattern of management deficiencies and neglect, but there was no evidence of a cover-up. Fifteen executives have been fired. Barra said there could be a few more recall announcements in the months ahead, but that they will be substantially completed by end of the second quarter.

- Navistar continues to get control over its massive losses, cutting the net loss in the company's second quarter to $297 million from $374 million a year ago. Revenue rose nearly 10% y/y and topped consensus expectations. While the company did not say when it will return to profitability, the CEO did say the third quarter would be better than the second quarter, and fourth quarter performance would be better than the third quarter. NAV was up 4.5% at its best levels this morning, but is only around +0.5% as of writing.

***Looking Ahead***
- 12:00 (US) Q1 Household Change in Net Worth: No est v $2.954T prior
- 13:30 (US) Fed's Kocherlakota speaks on Interest Rates in Boston
- (MX) Mexico Banamex Survey of Economists

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


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15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
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13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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