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May U.S. Jobs Due. ECB Eases Policy as Expected. BOE Steady.

May U.S. Jobs Due. ECB Eases Policy as Expected. BOE Steady.
June 6, 2014 00:00 gmt
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map

  • Yields in European prime fixed income markets have turned mostly lower following the announcement of ECB ease earlier today Yields on bonds on the periphery of the Eurozone are sharply lower as the ECB targeted those economies. U.S. Treasury yields are lower.
  • Equities closed mixed in the Far East earlier.  European bourses are mixed. U.S. equities are mostly higher at midday.
  • The U.S.10-yr is 2.58%, -3bp.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).

    HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS:  DE- Industrial Output, Trade. CH- CPI, GB- Trade, EZ- PPI. CA-
    Employment. US- Employment
  • The ECB delivered all that was expected. It cut interest rates  with the bank deposit rate at the ECB going negative (0-10%). implemented a Targeted Long-Term Repo Operation (TLTRO), and indicated that the bank was prepared to do Quantitative Ease (QE) if required.  The EURUSD fell on the news initially, but the currency pair rebounded as it appeared the market was set-up short for the news. We feel the decision will weigh on the EUR over time, but this market tends to move on its own time schedule.
  • The Bank of England kept policy steady as expected today. See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.
  • The street view on May U.S. employment data are for a gain on the order of 220K in the month. ADP private employment data Wednesday were  weaker than forecast. The problem is the ADP report is not a reliable predictor of NFP. Other data from the U.S. are pointing to a strong report.
  • See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.  

    Five Day Trading Planner

    THURSDAY 5 June 2014.
    United Kingdom
    Bank of England Decision- No policy change expected.
    European central Bank Decision- Policy easing priced in.
    United States
    Jobless Claims- Focus on the 300K level.
          FRIDAY 6 June 2014.
United Kingdom
Trade- GBP Sensitive to this statistic
United States
Employment - Most important statistic of the month

         MONDAY 9 June 2014
         No Major Data
         TUESDAY 10 June 2014

Time   Country Title Cons Last
06/06/14 5:00 JP Lead Ind Aprp 106.2 107.1
06/06/14 7:00 DE Ind Output Apr yy 2.70% 3.00%
06/06/14 7:00 DE Trade Apr eur bn 15.1 16.4
06/06/14 7:15 CH CPI mm Apr 0.20% 0.10%
06/06/14 7:15 CH CPI yy 0.10% 0.00%
06/06/14 8:30 GB Visible Trade- Apr -8.65 -8.48
06/06/14 8:30 GB Trade- Non-EU -3.15 -3.19
06/06/14 9:00 EZ PPI mm Apr 0.20% 0.20%
06/06/14 9:00 EZ PPI yy -1.20% -1.60%
06/06/14 12:30 CA Jobless % 6.90% 6.90%
06/06/14 12:30 CA Payrolls 21.3 -28.9
06/06/14 12:30 US Jobless % 6.40% 6.30%
06/06/14 12:30 US Payrolls 219 288
06/06/14 12:30 US Priv Jobs 215 273
06/06/14 19:30 US COT Report n/a n/a

calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar  For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.

John M. BlandJohn M. Bland, is a founding partner of,  and an author. He has been an FX consultant for a money center. bank, a forex trader for a N.Y. institution, and a FX analyst for a top Fed watching service. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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