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Thursday June 5, 2014 - 18:48:46 GMT
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May U.S. Jobs Due. ECB Eases Policy as Expected. BOE Steady.
|May U.S. Jobs Due. ECB Eases Policy as Expected. BOE Steady.|
June 6, 2014 00:00 gmt
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map
FRIDAY 6 June 2014.
- Yields in European prime fixed income markets have turned mostly lower following the announcement of ECB ease earlier today Yields on bonds on the periphery of the Eurozone are sharply lower as the ECB targeted those economies. U.S. Treasury yields are lower.
- Equities closed mixed in the Far East earlier. European bourses are mixed. U.S. equities are mostly higher at midday.
- The U.S.10-yr is 2.58%, -3bp.
The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: DE- Industrial Output, Trade. CH- CPI, GB- Trade, EZ- PPI. CA-
Employment. US- Employment
- The ECB delivered all that was expected. It cut interest rates with the bank deposit rate at the ECB going negative (0-10%). implemented a Targeted Long-Term Repo Operation (TLTRO), and indicated that the bank was prepared to do Quantitative Ease (QE) if required. The EURUSD fell on the news initially, but the currency pair rebounded as it appeared the market was set-up short for the news. We feel the decision will weigh on the EUR over time, but this market tends to move on its own time schedule.
- The Bank of England kept policy steady as expected today. See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.
- The street view on May U.S. employment data are for a gain on the order of 220K in the month. ADP private employment data Wednesday were weaker than forecast. The problem is the ADP report is not a reliable predictor of NFP. Other data from the U.S. are pointing to a strong report.
- See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.
Five Day Trading Planner
THURSDAY 5 June 2014.
Bank of England Decision- No policy change expected.
European central Bank Decision- Policy easing priced in.
Jobless Claims- Focus on the 300K level.
Trade- GBP Sensitive to this statistic
Employment - Most important statistic of the month
MONDAY 9 June 2014
No Major Data
TUESDAY 10 June 2014
||Lead Ind Aprp
||Ind Output Apr yy
||Trade Apr eur bn
||CPI mm Apr
||Visible Trade- Apr
||PPI mm Apr
Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.
John M. Bland, is a founding partner of Global-View.com, and an author. He has been an FX consultant for a money center. bank, a forex trader for a N.Y. institution, and a FX analyst for a top Fed watching service. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
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13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
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15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
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John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release
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