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Monday June 9, 2014 - 05:20:28 GMT
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| | Email Asian Market Update: China's trade surplus hits a 5-year high as imports contract; Japan Q1 GDP revised up on much higher CAPEX - Source

- (CN) CHINA MAY TRADE BALANCE: $35.9B V $23BE (5-YEAR HIGH, 3rd month of surplus) >- (JP) JAPAN Q1 FINAL GDP Q/Q: 1.6% V 1.4%E; ANNUALIZED GDP: 6.7% V 5.6%E; NOMINAL GDP: 1.4% V 1.2%E - (JP) JAPAN APR BOP CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE: 187B V 288BE; BOP ADJUSTED CURRENT ACCOUNT: 131B (1st surplus in 4 months) V 233BE - (JP) JAPAN APR TRADE BALANCE BOP BASIS: -780B V -640BE - (JP) JAPAN MAY BANK LENDING INCL TRUSTS Y/Y: 2.3% (4-month high) V 2.1% PRIOR; BANK LENDING EX-TRUST Y/Y: 2.4% V 2.1%E Market Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT): - Nikkei225 +0.5%, S&P/ASX closes, Kospi -0.1%, Shanghai Composite +0.3%, Hang Seng +0.8%, Jun S&P500 flat at 1,949, Aug gold flat at $1,252, Jul crude oil +0.2% at $102.82/brl ***Highlights/Observations/Insights*** - China trade data released over the weekend painted a mixed picture despite the impressive 5-year surplus beat on the headline. Exports were particularly impressive with a 7% y/y rise - shipments to EU were up 13% and those to US up 6%. Imports component surprisingly contracted however, shrinking by 1.6% against a 6% expected rise. Iron ore, copper, and crude oil imports all fell sequentially, as ANZ analysts noted the declines were due to recent crackdown by Chinese regulators on the use of commodities as collateral to finance deals. RBS research team remarked that they do not expect May trade figures to change the policy stance significantly, noting the "import data may keep the pressure up for initiatives to support growth." - Japan Q1 final GDP was revised higher despite expectations of lower than initially reported growth. Q/Q final GDP stood at 1.6% vs 1.5% prelim and annualized was up 6.7% v 5.9% prelim. Corporate CAPEX component revision stood out with a whopping 7.6% rise - above 4.9% prelim and 4.6% estimate - while all other components were generally in line with the initial prints. USD/JPY hit a high of 102.64 on the release before retreating to 102.50, and Nikkei225 reached a 3-month high above 15,200. Also of note out of Japan, BOJ Gov Kuroda over the weekend said that while stimulus policies have achieved the goal of boosting the real economy and ending deflation, the official 2% inflation target may take more than the initially projected 2-year timeframe to be reached sustainably. - Ukraine President-elect Poroshenko was formally sworn in this weekend and swiftly proceeded to outline a 1-week timeframe to end all fighting in the eastern part of the country. Poroshenko also welcomed dialogue with the separatist forces but noted the govt will not negotiate with bandits. Local rebel leaders dismissed those comments as rhetoric, indicating they do not expected Ukraine military to pull out of the contested areas. - European Commission meanwhile is planning to host another round of trilateral talks between Ukraine, Russia, and EU leaders on Monday. Also of note, an FT note citing sources reported that some large Russian companies are preparing to switch settlement contracts to CNY and other Asian currencies amid concerns over western sanctions. ***Speakers/Political/In the Papers*** - (CN) Some large Russian companies said to be preparing to switch contracts to CNY and other Asian currencies - FT - (CN) China Premier Li Keqiang: China economic growth within reasonable range; China has relatively large downward pressure. - (CN) China Stats Bureau researcher Pan Jiancheng: Excessive concern over China's slowdown may pose risks - People's Daily - (CN) China should cut banks' RRR across the board and adopt expansionary monetary policy to match growth - Chinese press - (CN) As of May 31st, China iron ore port inventory at 115.9Mt (record), +2.9% m/m, +61.3% y/y - Chinese press - (JP) Japan BOJ Gov Kuroda: Stimulus launched last year achieved its goal of boosting the real economy and ending deflation; 2% inflation target may take more than 2 years to reach - financial press - (KR) South Korea Ministry of Strategy official: Govt is analyzing economic activity for H1; Considering revising its 3.7% 2014 GDP target lower due to Sewol disaster - Korean press - (EU) ECB's Coeure: ECB's latest move wanted to indicate that monetary conditions will diverge between the euro zone and US/UK for several years - French press - (UR) European Commission planning to host another round of trilateral talks between Ukraine, Russia, and EU leaders on June 9th in Brussels - financial press ***Fixed Income/Commodities/Currencies*** - (JP) BOJ offers to buy 1.5T in T-bills - (KR) South Korea sells KRW1.85T in 5-yr government bonds at 3.065% v 3.115% prior, bid to cover: 4.2x v 4.6x prior - OPEC expected to maintain its output ceiling at 30M bpd when it meets later this week - financial press - USD/CNY: (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.1485 v 6.1623 prior setting (strongest Yuan setting since March 27th) ***Equities*** US markets: - FDO: Icahn discloses 9.4% stake; intends to talk to management and may seek board seats - 13D filing; Fox's Gasparino: Icahn tells us that he will push for FDO to look for merger, possibly with DG - tweet; Issues Statement Regarding Icahn Schedule 13D Filing; board open to dialogue with all shareholders - KRFT: Raise prices on its coffee brands by 10% - press - HSH: Tyson Foods nearing deal for Company; To offer more than $60/shr for Hillshire (total deal value above $7.36B) - financial press Notable movers by sector: - Consumer Discretionary: Wuxi Little Swan 000418.CN +10.1%, Midea Group 000333.CN +0.8% (Midea offers for 20% stake in Little Swan); Skyworth Digital 751.HK -1.6% (May sales results); 361 Degrees International 1361.HK +3.4% (expects sales growth in 2014) - Financials: Haitong Securities 6837.HK +0.9% (May results); CITIC Securities 6030.HK +1.2% (May results); Evergrande Real Estate Group 3333.HK +0.6% (May sales results); Gemdale Corp 600383.CN +1.2% (May sales results) - Industrials: Great Wall Motor 2333.HK -5.5% (May production results) - Technology: MediaTek Inc 2454.TW +2.4% (May results); Sony Corp 6758.JP +1.4% (PS4 leads console sales in current FY) - Telecom: Softbank 9984.JP +0.6% (cut rates in Japan) - Source


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