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Monday June 9, 2014 - 10:06:48 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Markets pause following last week's key events of ECB rate cut and US May payroll data

Mon, 09 Jun 2014 5:15 AM EST

- China May Trade Balance registers its third straight surplus which hits a 5-year high; components mixed with Exports were particularly impressive with a 7% y/y rise while Imports component surprisingly contracted
- Japan Q1 Final GDP revised higher aide by Capex (QoQ: 1.6% v 1.4% prelim); fresh signs the world's third-biggest economy is in better shape to weather a hit to consumption from a sales tax hike
- Spanish 10-year gov't yield at 2.60% and below its US equivalent for first time in 4 years
- Whit Monday holiday in Continental Europe keeps participation at a minimum
- World Cup gets underway this week and should provide plenty of action, in contrast to the markets

***Economic Data***
- (JP) Japan May Bankruptcies Y/Y: -20.2% v +1.7% prior
- (JP) Japan May Consumer Confidence Index: 39.3 v 37.6e; 1st rise in 6 months
- (FI) Finland Apr Preliminary Trade Balance: -295M v 143M prior
- (JP) Japan May Eco Watchers Current Survey: 45.1 v 45.0e; Outlook Survey: 53.8 v 52.0e
- (SE) Sweden SEB House Price Indicator: 56 v 60 prior
- (CZ) Czech May CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.4%e
- (CZ) Czech May Unemployment Rate: 7.5% v 7.6%e
- (ES) Spain Q1House Price Index Q/Q: -0.3% v -1.3% prior; Y/Y: -1.6% v -7.8% prior
- (TR) Turkey Apr Industrial Production M/M: 1.0% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 4.6% v 4.0%e
- (EU) ECB 37M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 13.0M prior; 37.3B parked in deposit facility vs. 35.7B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (SE) Sweden Apr Household Consumption M/M: 0.4 v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 4.5 v 2.8% prior
- (SE) Sweden May Budget Balance (SEK): 28.9B v 11.1B prior
- (TW) Taiwan May Trade Balance: $5.3B v $2.9Be; Exports Y/Y: 1.4% v 4.5%e; Imports Y/Y: -2.3% v 10.2%e
- (UK) May Lloyds Employment Confidence: 4 v 1 prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Jun Sentix Investor Confidence: 8.5 v 13.3e
- (IT) Bank of Italy (BOI) Apr gross non-performing (bad) loans Y/Y: 22.3% v+23.0% prior
- (IT) Bank of Italy (BOI) Apr Balance-Sheet Aggregates: ECB funding to Italian banks: 216.4B v 210.5B prior
- (SG) Singapore May Foreign Reserves: $276.1B v $275.2B prior

Fixed Income:
- None seen

Indices [Stoxx50 +0.2%,
FTSE 100 +0.3% at 6,878, DAX +0.1% at 10,000, CAC-40 flat at 4,583, IBEX-35 +0.3% at 11,102, FTSE MIB +0.5% at 22,417, SMI closed, S&P 500 Futures -0.1% at 1,947]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open mixed in line with trading seen in Asia, DAX continues to trade near 10,000, Peripheral indices outperform, Trading conditions thin as some markets are closed for holiday (Switzerland, Austria, Luxembourg, Norway, Cyprus, Greece, Hungary, Romania), Resource firms gain despite weaker than expected Chinese imports and decline in copper prices

By Sector
- Financials
[Gagfah GFJ.DE -1.5% (placement)]
- Technology [Xing O1BC.DE +2% (broker commentary)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Basic Materials +0.4%, Utilities +0.3%, Telecom +0.2%, Consumer Cyclical +0.1%, Technology +0.1%, Financial +0.1%, Energy flat; Consumer Non-Cyclical -0.2%]

- BoE H1 Systemic Risk Survey
noted that the perceived probability of high-impact event declined but the main perceived risk was an economic downturn. Other risks included geo-political and housing. Record low numbers seek risk of high impact event.
- Spain Economy Min De Guindos reiterated economy was on road to recovery and saw export volumes growing at about 5%. Gov to approve tax reform in coming weeks.
- Poland Central Bank's Zielinska-Glebocka stated that she saw small chance of Polish rate cut but likely to keep forward guidance of steady rate for a longer period (currently through Sept). Visible slow down needed for Polish rate cut
- Poland Central Bank's Glapinski stated that interest rates should remain unchanged until end 2014 and its might consider rate cut in 2015. He saw no risk of either rising inflation or deflation. Weak perspective for GDP growth without inflation would be an argument for a rate cut. It might withdraw forward guidance at July policy meeting due to 'unclear situation
- Poland Central Bank's Winiecki stated that Polish interest rate was adequate for expected CPI, GDP. He noted that CPI would not top 1.5% in coming years; GDP to hover around 3% for next 3-7 years. It might need to lower inflation target in future but talk of deflation was an 'intellectual error'. Rate cut would need different GDP view
- IMF stated that it might review South Africa's growth forecast from 2.3% to 2% or below
- BoJ Dep Gov Iwata stated that its QQE policies was having its intended effect as the economy continued to move in positive direction. He reiterated inflation expectations were rising, labor market tightening. He also reiterated that Japan would likely to reach 2% inflation target in period centered on FY15. Lastly he stressed that BOJ would not hesitate to adjust policy if needed.
- Mexico Fin Min Videgaray stated that it sought to accelerate GDP growth in the short term with public spending. - Gov't spending plus improving global economic outlook (e.g. US) means better prospects for Mexico in coming months. Seek more dynamic growth through structural reforms for potential 5% GDP growth

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- FX prices were in consolidation mode after last week's key events of ECB rate cut and US May payroll data. The major pairs saw little changes from Asia opening levels.
- Whit Monday holiday in Europe today (Jun 9th) saw market closures in Switzerland, Austria, Luxembourg, Norway, Cyprus, Greece , Hungary, Romania. (**Note France and Germany markets were open but participation was light)

Political/In the Weekend Papers:
- (EU) ECB's Coeure: ECB's latest move wanted to indicate that monetary conditions will diverge between the euro zone and US/UK for several years
- (DE) German Labor Minister Nahles: Affirms plans to introduce a minimum wage of 8.50/hr starting in 2017
-(GR) Moody's: Greece's privatization program is credit positive and could exceed targets
-(IT) Italy S&P affirms BBB rating; outlook Negative
- (UR) Ukraine President-elect Poroshenko was formally sworn in this weekend and swiftly proceeded to outline a 1-week timeframe to end all fighting in the eastern part of the country
- (CN) China Stats Bureau researcher Pan Jiancheng: Excessive concern over China's slowdown may pose risks - People's Daily
- (CN) China should cut banks' RRR across the board and adopt expansionary monetary policy to match growth - Chinese press

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (US) Fed's Rosengren speaks in Guatemala
- (IR) US-Iran talks in Geneva
- (UR) Ukraine-Russia-EU gas talks planned
- Whit Monday Holiday in Continental Europe
- (IL) Israel Central Bank Minutes
- (RU) Russia May Light Vehicle Car Sales Y/Y: No est v -8% prior
- (PE) Peru Apr Trade Balance: No est v -$441M prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Apr Trade Balance: No est v -779M prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Q1 Final GDP Q/Q: -0.7%e v -0.7% prelim; Y/Y: 1.2%e v 1.2% prelim
- 06:45 (US) USD 3-month Libor
- 07:00 (IE) Ireland May Consumer Confidence Index: No est v 87.2 prior
- 07:00 (CZ) Czech Central Bank comments May CPI data release
- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
- 08:15 (CA) Canada May Housing Starts: 185.0Ke v 195.3K prior (revised from 194.8K)
- 08:30 (CL) Chile May Trade Balance: $1.1Be v $949.0M prior; Total Exports: No est v $6.7B prior Total Imports: No est v $5.7B prior
- 08:30 (CL) Chile May Copper Exports: No est v $3.1B prior
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico May CPI M/M: -0.4%e v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 3.5% prior; CPI Core M/M: No est v 0.3% prior
- 09:10 (US) Fed's Bullard in Florida
- 11:00 (AU) RBA's Stevens in SF
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $0.85-1.1B in bonds
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $48B in 3-month and 6-month Bills
- 19:01 (UK) May BRC Sales Like-For-Like Y/Y: No est v 4.2% prior
- 21:30 (CN) China May PPI Y/Y: -1.5%e v -2.0% prior
- 21:30 (CN) China May CPI Y/Y: 2.4%e v 1.8% prior




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