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Tuesday June 10, 2014 - 10:08:48 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Yield differentials helping to move Euro currency lower

Tue, 10 Jun 2014 5:22 AM EST

- China May PPI YoY registers its 27th straight month of decline but at smallest pace in 5 months (-1.4% vs. -1.5%e)
- China May CPI at a 4-month high but well contained within 2014 target for now (YoY 2.5% vs. 2.4%e)
- European industrial production and CPI data mixed in session and does little to break recent price ranges
- Yield differentials helping to move Euro currency lower

***Economic Data***
- (CH) Swiss May Unemployment Rate: 3.0% v 3.1%e; Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adj): 3.2% v 3.1%e

- (FI) Finland Apr Industrial Production M/M: -0.5% v +0.4%e; Y/Y: -2.3% v -1.5%e
- (JP) Japan May Preliminary Machine Tool Orders Y/Y: 24.1% v 48.7% prior
- (FR) Bank of France May Business Sentiment: 97 v 98e
- (FR) France Apr Industrial Production M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: -2.0% v -2.0%e
- (FR) France Apr Manufacturing Production M/M: 0.3% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 0.0% v -0.4%e

- (CH) SNB: Swiss sight deposits for week ended May 30th (CHF): 302.9B v 304.04B prior
- (DK) Denmark Apr Industrial Production M/M: -1.4% v -1.5%e
- (DK) Denmark May CPI M/M: -0.1% v 0.0%e ; Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.7%e
- (DK) Denmark May CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.0% v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 0.3% v 0.5% prior
- (TR) Turkey Q1 GDP WDA Q/Q: 1.7% v 0.4%; Y/Y: 4.4% v 4.7% prior; GDP (unadj) Y/Y: 4.3% v 4.2%e
- (EU) ECB 442M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 37.0M prior; 33.9B parked in deposit facility vs. 37.3B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (CH) Swiss Apr Real Retail Sales Y/Y: 0.4% v 3.4% prior
- (NL) Netherlands May CPI M/M: -0.3% v +0.5% prior; Y/Y: 0.8% v 1.2% prior
- (NL) Netherlands May CPI EU harmonized M/M: -0.5% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.1% v 0.6%e
- (NO) Norway May CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.7%e
- (NO) Norway May CPI Underlying M/M: 0.2% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 2.3% v 2.2%e
- (NO) Norway May PPI including Oil M/M: -0.9% v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: +0.7% v -0.6% prior
- (IT) Italy Apr Industrial Production M/M: 0.7% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 0.1% v 1.3% prior; Industrial Production WDA Y/Y: 1.6% v 0.4%e
- (UK) Apr Industrial Production M/M: 0.4% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 3.0% v 2.8%e
- (UK) Apr Manufacturing Production M/M: 0.4% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 4.4% v 4.0%e

- (IT) Italy Q1 Final GDP Q/Q: -0.1% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: -0.5% v -0.5%e
- (GR) Greece Apr Industrial Production Y/Y: -2.2% v -1.4%e
- (GR) Greece May CPI Y/Y: -2.0% v -2.2%e; CPI EU Harmonized Y/Y: -2.1% v -2.0%e

Fixed Income:
- (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA)
sold 2.85B vs. 3.5B indicated in 0.5% 2017 DSL Bonds; Avg Yield: 0.192% v 0.412% prior
- (NO) Norway sold NOK3B in 2017 Bonds, avg yield 1.62% v 1.71% prior; bid-to-cover: 1.87x
- (GR) Greece Debt Agency (PDMA) sold 1.625B vs. 1.25B indicated in 26-week bills; Avg Yield: 2.15% v 2.70% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.70x v 2.65x prior
- (CH) Switzerland sold CHF782.5M in 3-month Bills; Yield: -0.15%
- (EU) ECB allotted 136.8B in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender bids received)
- (EU) ECB allotted 10.0B in 1-month MRO Refinancing

Indices [Stoxx50 +0.2%,
FTSE 100 -0.4% at 6,846, DAX +0.2% at 10,027, CAC-40 +0.2% at 4,597, IBEX-35 flat at 11,158, FTSE MIB +0.4% at 22,563, SMI +0.7% at 8,722, S&P 500 Futures -0.2% at 1,946]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European equity markets open lower following negative leads from Tokyo, DAX hits another record high, Declines in copper prices weigh on FTSE 100 listed copper producers, Corporate EUR-denominated bond issuance picks up on today's session

By Sector
- Financials
[Bank of Ireland BKIR.IE -4% (priced stake sale)]
- Industrials [Manz AG +7% (awarded order)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Technology +0.6%, Utilities +0.5%, Consumer Non-Cyclical +0.5%, Financials +0.2%, Energy flat, Consumer Cyclical flat, Industrials flat; Telecom -0.7%, Basic Materials -0.2%]

- ECB's Weidmann
(Germany) called the ECB measures a wake-up call to politicians so that they would continue reforms. He added that the combinations measures 'favor exaggerations' of the financial and property markets and needed to stay vigilant to potential over-reactions. Negative surprises could unhook long-term inflation
- ECB's Hansson (Estonia): ECB wanted to put pressure on banks to lend and put money into the real economy
- ECB's Liikanen (Finland) reiterated conscious to risks of low inflation to price stability and that ECB determined to keep high monetary accommodation. He forecasted Finland's 2014 GDP flat (+0.6% prior), +1.4% for 2015
- ECB confirmed that Draghi met with Greece opposition Syriza party leader Tsipras in Frankfurt
expectations. TLTROs had weaknesses and are not the route to command the economy
- Germany Chancellor Merkel reiterated view that EU growth was fragile and that EU leaders and Parliament members needed to agree on an agenda
- EU's Barroso reiterated view that more needs to be done in post-crisis environment
- EU Rehn: Recovery has not been limited to EMU core countries; becoming broader but remains fragile but challenges remain with debt and unemployment remaining high. ECB continues to act decisively in its mandate to deal with risk of prolong period of low inflation; important that monetary polict remains expansionary
- Sweden PM Reinfeldt: Future EU polices must be decided upon before appointment of to EU positions
- IMF: European Union should simplify its complex budget rules and focus mainly on the debt-to-GDP ratio. The labyrinth of rules is difficult to communicate to the public
- South Africa Central Bank (SARB) Gov Marcus stated that she was concerned on Q2 GDP but recession was not likely. She added that the country woes were self-inflicted. ZAR currency (Rand) to remain volatile die to global events and that the era of abundant flows to emerging markets was over.
- Poland Central Bank's Bratkowski stated that he saw no reason for sudden rate cut to counter PLN currency (Zloty) strength. Low inflation alone should not be an argument for rate cut if economy stayed strong. Polish GDP below 3.0% might trigger another Base Rate cut
- Turkey Econ Min Zeybekci reiterated call that Turkey Central Bank should lower interest rates to in line with market trends
- Japan Growth Strategy Draft (third arrow) called for growth-oriented corporate tax reform and create new code for corporate governance. It called for more transparency in employment rule and work double inbound foreign direct investment. To create environment to accept highly skilled foreign workers and called for GPIF portfolio reform
- Officials in South Korea said to be considering a plan to examine the fx trading of banks near the close of trading sessions. Seeking ways to reduce trading near FX market close where concentration of trades has resulted in distortion of closing price
- South Korea Fin Min official Kim Seong Wook: Monitor foreign fund USD sell orders at close; concerned about FX price volatility; There was no immediate plan to inspect banks on FX trading.
- Bank of Korea (BOK) might consider using various monetary policy tools other than interest rates to cope with economic conditions. Said to consider using Reserve Requirement operation (**Note: not used since 2006 when raised to 200bps to 7.00%)
- PBoC reiterated to increase strength and frequency of policy fine-tuning. To use multiple tools to support smaller companies and increase re-lending for agriculture and small businesses.
- IEA stated that it expected gas demand in China to double by 2019 to 315B cubic meters in 2019. It saw global gas demand rising by 2.2%/year by the end of 2019 with LNG meeting much of new demand growth.

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The USD held onto slight gains with dealers noting that yield spread between two-year US Treasury and German yields at the widest since 2007 at 37bps
. EUR/USD pair hovered just under the 1.36 handle throughout the session. EUR/USD appeared to be set to come under selling pressure with any break with a break below 1.3470 adding to downside momentum
- The GBP was fractional firmer after a slght beat on its production YoY readings
- The JPY currency was firmer in Asian trading with Japanese stocks underperforming in the region
- Peripheral yields were higher for the first time in four sessions.

Political/In the Weekend Papers:
- (GR) Greece Govt confirms cabinet reshuffle, names Gikas Hardouvelis as new finance minister
- (UK) BoE's McCafferty: Must remain cautious about the housing market; UK economic recovery is because of confidence returning; May need to regulate 'help to buy' in order to take the edge off of the home price increase, ensure it does not create a bubble in housing
- (US) Fed's Bullard (dove, non voter): GDP growth likely to grow in excess of 3% in Q2, Q3, and Q4; could adjust rate liftoff timetable
- (US) Fed's Rosengren (dovish dissenter in 2013, FOMC non-voter in 2014): Would support a rate increase once the Fed achieves its objectives of full employment and 2% inflation
- (CN) Banks said to be investigating possible fraud in second port other than Qingdao Port
- (UR) Ukraine Foreign Ministry: Confirms that parties involved in the crisis have agreed to hold talks to implement President Poroshenko's peace plan
- (UR) Ukraine and Russia have yet to reach agreement related to natural gas prices

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 3-Month Bills
- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell 1.0B in 0.1% I/L 2023 Bunds
- 05:30 (UK) DMO to sell 3.25B in 2.75% 2024 Gilts

- 06:00 (ZA) South Africa Q2 BER Business Confidence: No est v 41 prior
- 06:00 (TR) Turkey to sell new 2015 Zero Bonds
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (EU) ECB allotment in 7-day Term Deposit Tender to offset govt bond purchases under SMP
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Jun IGP-M Inflation (1st Preview): -0.3%e v +0.1% prior
- 07:15 (EU) ECB's Ceoure (France) in Frankfurt
- 07:30 (US) May NFIB Small Business Optimism: 95.8e v 95.2 prior
- 07:45 (US) Weekly ICSC Chain Store Sales
- 08:15 Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank's Economist Survey
- 08:50 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell combined 6.3-7.5B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month Bills
- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail Sales
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Mar Gross Fixed Investment: +1.8%e v -0.5% prior
- 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves:
- 10:00 (US) Apr JOLTs Job Openings: 4.05Me v 4.014M prior
- 10:00 (US) Apr Wholesale Inventories M/M: 0.5%e v 1.1% prior; Wholesale Trade Sales M/M: 0.9%e v 1.4% prior
- 10:00 (UK) May NIESR GDP Estimate: No est v 1.0% prior
- 10:00 (EU) ECB's Mersch (Luembourg) with Poland Central Bank Gov Belka in Brussels
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $2.5-3.25B in bonds
- 11:15 (EU) EU's Van Rompuy in Brussels
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 4-Week Bills
- 12:00 (AU) RBA Gov Stevens in SF
- 12:00 (US) DOE Short-Term Crude
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $28B in 3-Year Notes
- 16:30 (US) API Weekly Oil Inventories
- 19:00 (KR) South Korea May Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adj): 3.6%e v 3.7% prior
- 21:00 (AU) Australia Jun Consumer Inflation Expectation

- (MX) Mexico May ANTAD Same-Store Sales Y/Y: 3.0%e v 2.4% prior
- (MX) Mexico May Nominal Wages: No est v 4.0% prior
- (US) Maine holds Primary Elections
- (US) Nevada holds Primary Elections
- (US) North Dakota holds Primary Elections
- (US) South Carolina holds Primary Elections
- (US) Virginia holds Primary Elections




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