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Wednesday June 11, 2014 - 15:36:19 GMT
Trade the News Staff - www.global-view.com/forex-services/TTN/

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TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Consolidation and Low Volumes Drive European and US Indices Lower


Wed, 11 Jun 2014 11:11 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (PT) Bank of Portugal reports May ECB financing to Portuguese banks at 44.3B v 44.6B prior
- (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Jun 6th: +10.3% v -3.1% prior
- (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Jun 6th: $469.9B v $466.9B prior
- (RU) Russia Apr Trade Balance: $19.8B v $18.0Be; Exports: $47.5B v $45.4Be; Imports: $27.6B v $27.7Be
- (MX) Mexico Apr Industrial Production M/M: 0.6% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: -0.6% v -0.2%e; Manufacturing Production Y/Y: -0.1% v 0.8%e
- (US) DOE Crude: -2.6M v -2.0Me; Gasoline: +1.7M v +0.5Me; Distillate: +860K v +1.0Me

- Today investors are consolidating gains that pushed European and US indices out to all-time highs over recent sessions. European indices are looking to close near their lows and US indices are seeing modest declines. Overall trading volumes are anemic, exaggerating the downside moves. As of writing, the DJIA is down 0.54%, the S&P500 is down 0.44% and the Nasdaq is down 0.10%.

- Iraq is a source of major concern this morning after Mosul, the country's second-largest city, fell to islamist insurgents under the ISIS banner. Note that ISIS has become a major force fighting the Syrian government. This morning there are reports that fighting is raging across western Iraq, with the cities of Tikrit and Samara under pressure. Also, ISIS has taken the Baiji plant, the nation's largest refinery. Crude futures have reacted calmly to the developments, with front-month WTI right about where it was yesterday, at $104.40.

- OPEC agreed to keep its output target of 30 million bpd unchanged at its meeting in Vienna. OPEC Sec General Al-Badri characterized the market as very stable and prices appropriate. In addition, members voted to keep Al-Badri in his position for another year, being yet again unable to agree on a new candidate for secretary general.

- EU officials have launched an investigation into whether Ireland, Luxembourg and the Netherlands provided improper tax breaks to Apple, Starbucks and Fiat. The investigation will determine whether tax breaks amounted to improper state aid to the companies. Recall that last year, a US Senate investigation concluded that Apple had negotiated a special low tax rate with the Irish that allowed it to avoid paying at least $15 billion in US taxes on $44 billion in overseas income in 2009-12.

- Rambus agreed to a licensing pact that allows Qualcomm to use its technology in its wireless chip sets. The pact includes certain memory technology and access to patented security technologies. Terms were not disclosed, however Rambus hiked its second quarter revenue outlook to well above consensus - this after a below-consensus revenue forecast with the firm's last earnings report helped take its shares lower back in April. Today RMBS is up 5.4%.

- Among the big gainers this morning is Ulta Salon, up nearly 15% after first quarter earnings topped expectations and second quarter guidance topped consensus views. Shares of Elizabeth Arden are up nearly 10% on takeover chatter. Several small-cap biotechs are making big, double-digit moves this morning: Galena Biopharma is up 10%, Provectus is up 26% and Ventrus was up as much as 12% (and is also in a pending buyout deal); note that there is no news in the names, besides the fevered M&A environment. Synaptics is up 22% on a positive analyst note.

***Looking Ahead***
- 11:30 (BR) Brazil weekly Currency Flows
- 12:00 (US) USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE)
- 12:00 OPEC press conference
- 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell 30-Year Real-Return Bonds
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $21B in 10-Year Notes Reopening
- 13:00 (US) May Monthly Budget Statement: -$130.0Be v +$116.9B prior
- 16:00 (NZ) New Zealand Central Bank (RBNZ) Interest Rate Decision: Expected raise Official Cash Rate by 25bps to 3.25%
- 16:05 (NZ) New Zealand Central Bank (RBNZ) Gov Wheeler

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Thu 16 Nov
01:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Retail Sales
10:00 EZ- final HICP
14:15 US- Industrial Production
Fri 17 Nov
13:30 CA- Retail Sales, CPI
13:30 US- Housing Starts and Permits

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Wed -- 20:30 GMT AU- Employment data.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu -- 09:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Thu -- 10:00 GMT EZ- final HICP. ECB targets inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu -- NY Morning US- Import Prices, Philly Fed, Industrial, Production, NAHB. Usually not major movers.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT CA- Retail Sales and CPI.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits.



John M. Bland, MBA
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