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Thursday June 12, 2014 - 16:14:18 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Equity Consolidation Continues


Thu, 12 Jun 2014 11:21 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (ZA) South Africa Apr Mining Production M/M: +7.9%-4.9%e; Y/Y: +0.2% v -7.0%e; Gold Production Y/Y: -4.5% v -2.7% prior
- (PT) Portugal May CPI M/M: -0.1% v +0.1%e; Y/Y: -0.4% v -0.2%e
- (PT) Portugal May CPI EU Harmonized M/M:0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: -0.3% v -0.3%e
- (IE) Ireland May CPI M/M: 0.0% v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.3% prior
- (IE) Ireland May CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.0% v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: +0.4% v -0.1% prior
- (IL) Israel May Trade Balance: -$1.6B v -$1.5B prior
- (IN) India May CPI Y/Y: 8.3% v 8.4%e
- (IN) India Apr Industrial Production Y/Y: 3.4% v 1.9%e
- (BR) Brazil Apr Retail Sales M/M: -0.4% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 6.7% v 6.2%e; Broad Retail Sales Y/Y: 0.0% v +1.1%e
- (US) May Advance Retail Sales M/M: 0.3% v 0.6%e; Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M: 0.1% v 0.4%e; Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas: 0.0% v 0.4%e; Retail Sales Control Group: 0.0% v 0.4%e
- (US) May Import Price Index M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.5%e
- (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 317K v 309Ke; Continuing Claims: 2.614M v 2.63Me
- (CA) Canada Q1 Capacity Utilization Rate: 82.5% v 82.4%e
- (CA) Canada Apr New Housing Price Index M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.6% prior
- (CA) Canada May Teranet/National Bank HPI M/M: 0.8% v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 4.6% v 4.9% prior; House Price Index: 162.50 v 161.28 prior
- (US) Apr Business Inventories: 0.6% v 0.4%e
- (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories: +107 bcf v +109-113 bcf expected range

- The Dow Transports are leading US markets lower this morning as crude jumps two bucks and investors eye the situation in Iraq with growing concern. As of writing, the DJIA id down 0.29%, the S&P500 is down 0.36% and the Nasdaq is off 0.30%.

- The May retail sales numbers were soft, with m/m sequential growth much weaker than expected even as the annualized figure slightly topped expectations. Ex autos and the control figure (which is used to calculate GDP) were flat, disappointing expectations for a modest gain. Note however that the April figures were revised much higher.

- The security situation is decaying rapidly in Iraq. In the north, the Kurds moved to seize Kirkuk and its oil fields after the city was abandoned by Iraqi armed forces. Reportedly the Kurds have long coveted the city and its crude resources. Tikrit has changed hands several times, and Iraqi government forces manage to start putting up some resistance as ISIS gets closer to Bagdad. Fighting seems to be ongoing around the refinery town of Baiji. The US State Department indicated that it was prepared to begin providing assistance to Iraq, however reports in the New York Times also suggested that the Obama Administration has over recent months rejected requests by Iraq to bomb ISIS camps. Finally, there have also been reports that Iran is beginning to send small units to Iraq to bolster the government's defenses. WTI crude is very close to breaking above $106, two bucks above yesterday's level. Trading volume is nearly twice average levels. Spot gold is up 1%, at two-week highs.

- Airlines have seen very turbulent trading yesterday and today, thanks to several negative factors. Late on June 10th, the World Bank cut global growth forecasts, warning that while the developed world recovery is on track, the BRICs nations are a source of weakness. On June 11th, Germany's Lufthansa cuts its FY14 profit forecast to 1.0B from the 1.3-1.5B outlook offered at the beginning of May. The worsening situation in Iraq meanwhile continues to drive up crude prices. United fell ~5% on yesterday's session while the other majors fell 2-3% a piece. This morning American was down as much as 7%, Delta fell 5% while other majors were down 4%.

- Shares of hot exercise apparel name Lululemon are out of breath this morning, down more than 15% on weak guidance with first quarter results. The firm modestly topped expectations in its Q1, but Q2 earnings and revenue forecasts missed and the company said comps would remain in negative territory. It also cut its FY14 forecast. Multiple analysts cut ratings on the firm.

- Another couple of hot, small-cap biotechs are up big this morning. Onconova Therapeutics is up nearly 15% as investors await feedback for the company from the FDA on its rigosertib MDS treatment. Competitor and fellow MDS drug developer Sunesis Pharma is up more than 10%.

***Looking Ahead***
- FIFA World Cup begins in Brazil
- (UK) Chancellor George Osborne annual Mansion House speech
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $13B in 30-Year Bonds Reopening
- 14:00 (UK) BOE gov Carney with Chancellor Osborne at Mansion House dinner
- 18:00 (CL) Chile Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Overnight Rate Target unchanged at 4.00%
- 19:00 (PE) Peru Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Reference Rate unchanged at 4.00%
- (CO) Colombia Central Bank's Economists Survey
- (JP) Bank of Japan (BOJ) Interest Rate Decision

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Thu 16 Nov
01:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Retail Sales
10:00 EZ- final HICP
14:15 US- Industrial Production
Fri 17 Nov
13:30 CA- Retail Sales, CPI
13:30 US- Housing Starts and Permits

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Wed -- 20:30 GMT AU- Employment data.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu -- 09:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Thu -- 10:00 GMT EZ- final HICP. ECB targets inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu -- NY Morning US- Import Prices, Philly Fed, Industrial, Production, NAHB. Usually not major movers.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT CA- Retail Sales and CPI.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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