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Friday June 13, 2014 - 09:01:10 GMT
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Iraq Remains a Worry. BOE Carney Warns About Rate Hikes. Risk Off into the Weekend

Iraq Remains a Worry. BOE Carney Warns About Rate Hikes. Risk Off into the Weekend
June 13, 2014 09:030 gmt
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map

  • Markets remain in a risk-off posture on trader fears of the implications  of a possible disintegration of Iraq. U.S. data due  Friday are not major.
  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are mostly lower on a flight to safety, while yields on the periphery are higher.
  • U.K. yields have risen following comments late Thursday by BOE Governor Carney sending a message that interest rates could rise earlier than generally expected. this amounts to a changer in policy.  U.S. yields are up from their flight to safety lows late Thursday. The U.S. 10-yr is 2.60%, +2 bp.
  • Equities closed mostly higher in the Far East earlier. Bourses in Europe are trading lower. U.S. share futures are up.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


    HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: US- PPI, University of Michigan
  • Bank of England Governor Carney sent a clear message late Thursday that monetary policy could be tightened sooner than expected. Think of this as "forward guidance" to the markets and a part of monetary policy. Gillt yields have gotten the message and have increased, while the GBP is higher.
  • he Bank of Japan kept policy steady earlier, but continued to talk up the economy. Keep on mind that its the job of central banks at times to promote economic confidence. See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen. 
  • Friday's economic calendar features  US  PPI  data and the preliminary monthly University of Michigan Survey. See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they are released.

    TRADING PLANNER
    FRIDAY 13 June 2014
    • JP- BOJ - No rate change
    • US- PPI- Part of the picture
    • US- Univ of Mich Survey prelim-  Key data

    MONDAY 16 June 2014
    • EZ- CPI- ECB targets Inflation
    • US- TIC Flows- Watched closely by some
    • US-  Industrial  Production- Key cyclical indicator 

    TUESDAY 17June 2014
    • GB-  CPI, RPIX etc.- BOE targets inflation
    • DE- ZEW Survey- key sentiment index
    • US- Housing Starts & Permits- Key housing Statistic
    • US- CPI- Price metric for Fed

    WEDNESDAY
    18 June 2014
    • GB- BOE Policy Minutes- latest policy decision
    • US- Current Account- broadest measure of trade
    • US-  Fed Decision + Presser-  policy outlook key  

    THURSDAY 19 June 2014
    • CH- Swiss National Bank Decision
    • UK- Retail Sales- top economic metric
    • US- Weekly Jobless- most current read on jobs

    FRIDAY 20 June 2014
    • CA- Retail Sales- dated but key data
    • CA- CPI- BOC policy metric



    FOREX CALENDAR
    Time   Country Title Cons Last
    13/06/14 12:30 US PPI core 0.20% 0.50%
    13/06/14 12:30 US PPI Apr 0.10% 0.60%
    13/06/14 13:45 US U Mich prelim 83 81.9
    13/06/14 19:30 US COT Report n/a n/a
    16/06/14 0:00 MONDAY
    16/06/14 9:00 EZ HICP mm Apr 0.20% 0.90%
    16/06/14 9:00 EZ HICP yy 0.70% 0.70%
    16/06/14 9:00 EZ HICP core y 1.00% 1.00%
    16/06/14 12:30 US Empire PMI n/a n/a
    16/06/14 13:00 US TIC L-T Flows Mar n/a n/a
    16/06/14 13:00 US TIC Net Flows $b n/a n/a
    16/06/14 13:15 US Ind Prod Jan n/a n/a
    16/06/14 13:15 US Cap Util n/a n/a
    16/06/14 14:00 US NAHB Index n/a n/a


    calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar  For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

    See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.


    John M. BlandJohn M. Bland, is a founding partner of Global-View.com,  and an author. He has been an FX consultant for a money center. bank, a forex trader for a N.Y. institution, and a FX analyst for a top Fed watching service. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
Copyright 2014, GlobalViewpoint, Inc All rights reserved

 

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