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Friday June 13, 2014 - 09:01:10 GMT
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Iraq Remains a Worry. BOE Carney Warns About Rate Hikes. Risk Off into the Weekend
|Iraq Remains a Worry. BOE Carney Warns About Rate Hikes. Risk Off into the Weekend|
June 13, 2014 09:030 gmt
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map
- Markets remain in a risk-off posture on trader fears of the implications of a possible disintegration of Iraq. U.S. data due Friday are not major.
- Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are mostly lower on a flight to safety, while yields on the periphery are higher.
- U.K. yields have risen following comments late Thursday by BOE Governor Carney sending a message that interest rates could rise earlier than generally expected. this amounts to a changer in policy. U.S. yields are up from their flight to safety lows late Thursday. The U.S. 10-yr is 2.60%, +2 bp.
- Equities closed mostly higher in the Far East earlier. Bourses in Europe are trading lower. U.S. share futures are up.
The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: US- PPI, University of Michigan
- Bank of England Governor Carney sent a clear message late Thursday that monetary policy could be tightened sooner than expected. Think of this as "forward guidance" to the markets and a part of monetary policy. Gillt yields have gotten the message and have increased, while the GBP is higher.
- he Bank of Japan kept policy steady earlier, but continued to talk up the economy. Keep on mind that its the job of central banks at times to promote economic confidence. See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.
- Friday's economic calendar features US PPI data and the preliminary monthly University of Michigan Survey. See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and comments from experienced traders to events as they are released.
13 June 2014
- JP- BOJ - No rate change
- US- PPI- Part of the picture
- US- Univ of Mich Survey prelim- Key data
16 June 2014
- EZ- CPI- ECB targets Inflation
- US- TIC Flows- Watched closely by some
- US- Industrial Production- Key cyclical indicator
- GB- CPI, RPIX etc.- BOE targets inflation
- DE- ZEW Survey- key sentiment index
- US- Housing Starts & Permits- Key housing Statistic
- US- CPI- Price metric for Fed
18 June 2014
- GB- BOE Policy Minutes- latest policy decision
- US- Current Account- broadest measure of trade
- US- Fed Decision + Presser- policy outlook key
19 June 2014
- CH- Swiss National Bank Decision
- UK- Retail Sales- top economic metric
- US- Weekly Jobless- most current read on jobs
20 June 2014
- CA- Retail Sales- dated but key data
- CA- CPI- BOC policy metric
||U Mich prelim
||HICP mm Apr
||HICP core y
||TIC L-T Flows Mar
||TIC Net Flows $b
||Ind Prod Jan
Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.
John M. Bland, is a founding partner of Global-View.com, and an author. He has been an FX consultant for a money center. bank, a forex trader for a N.Y. institution, and a FX analyst for a top Fed watching service. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release
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