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Friday June 13, 2014 - 10:16:17 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Dealers bring forward view of first BOE rate hike following Gov Carney's Mansion House speech


Fri, 13 Jun 2014 5:11 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- BOE gov Carney hints at possible increase in interest rates this year
- BoJ again unanimously keeps interest rates and QE decisions unchanged (as expected) reiterates view that economy is undergoing moderate recovery

***Economic Data***
- (JP) Japan Apr Final Industrial Production M/M: -2.8% v -2.5% prelim; Y/Y: 3.8% v 4.1% prelim; Capacity Utilization M/M: No est v 0.4% prelim
- (SG) Singapore Apr Retail Sales M/M: -0.7% v +0.3%e; Y/Y: -9.0% v -3.6%e; Ex Auto Y/Y: -1.3% v +0.1%e
- (FR) France Q1 Final Non-Farm Payrolls Q/Q: +0.1% v -0.1%e
- (CN) China May YTD Fixed Urban Assets Y/Y: 17.2% v 17.2%e
- (CN) China May Retail Sales Y/Y: 12.5% v 12.1%e; Retail Sales YTD Y/Y: 12.1% v 12.0%e
- (CN) China May Industrial Production Y/Y: 8.8% v 8.7%e; Industrial Production YTD Y/Y: 8.7% v 8.8%e

- (UK) Retailer John Lewis reports weekly LFL Partnership sales for week ending Jun 7th: +8.7 v +8.5% prior
- (DE) Germany May Final CPI M/M: -0.1% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.9% v 0.9%e
- (DE) Germany May Final CPI EU Harmonized M/M: % v -0.3%e; Y/Y: % v 0.6%e
- (FI) Finland May CPI M/M: -0.2% v +0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.8% v 1.1%e
- (FI) Finland Apr GDP Indicator WD: +1.2% v -2.0% prior
- (FI) Finland Apr Final Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: 1.8% v 2.4% prelim
- (ES) Spain May CPI M/M: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 0.2% v 0.2%e
- (ES) Spain May CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.0% v 0.0%e v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 0.2% v 0.2%e
- (ES) Spain May CPI Core M/M: 0.1% v 1.0% prior; Y/Y: 0.2% v 0.1%e
- (FI) Finland Apr Current Account Balance: -980M v -700M prior
- (EU) ECB 16M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 8.0M prior; 16.9B parked in deposit facility vs. 13.6B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (SE) Sweden May Unemployment Rate: 8.0% v 8.4%e; Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adj): 7.8% v 8.1%e
- (NL) Netherlands Apr Retail Sales Y/Y: +3.4% v -1.9% prior
- (CZ) Czech Apr Current Account Monthly (CZK) -11.4BB v 12.0Be
- (IT) Italy May Final CPI NIC incl. tobacco M/M: -0.1% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.5%e; CPI Index Ex Tobacco: 107.3 v 107.4 prior
- (IT) Italy May Final CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.1% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.4%e
- (CN) Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) Weekly Copper Stockpiles: 81.9K v 86.5K prior
- (IT) Italy Apr General Government Debt: 2.146T v 2.1199T prior (record level)
- (HK) Hong Kong Q1 Industrial Production Y/Y: 2.1% v 0.5% prior
- (HK) Hong Kong Q1 PPI Y/Y: -6.3% v -5.5% prior
- (UK) Apr Construction Output M/M: 1.2% v 1.5%e; Y/Y: 4.6% v 2.9%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Apr Trade Balance (Seasonaly Adj): 15.8B v 15.2B prior; Trade Balance NSA (unadj): 15.7B v 16.3Be
- (EU) Euro Zone Q1 Employment Q/Q: 0.1% v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: +0.2% v -0.4% prior

Fixed Income:
- None seen

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Equities***
Indices [Stoxx50 -0.4%,
FTSE 100 -0.5% at 6,812, DAX -0.6% at 9,877, CAC-40 -0.5% at 4,531, IBEX-35 -0.3% at 11,052, FTSE MIB -0.3% at 22,103, SMI -0.3% at 8,644, S&P 500 Futures +0.1% at 1,924]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European markets open broadly lower as 'what if' scenarios about events in Iraq presented in the press stoked a general flight to safety. Airlines traded lower as oil hit multi-month highs. The lack of any new news out of the Middle East kept losses in check as trading was light on a summer Friday. UK Home Builders were all lower after UK BoE Gov Carney hinted a rate increase could come sooner than expected during his annual Mansion House speech last night.

By Sector
- Utilities
[GDF Suez GSZ.FR -0.4% (sees 40M/month charge for delay plants)]
- Technology [Dassault Systems DSY.FR +2.2% (Initiates 2019 Non-IFRS EPS Objective of 7.00)]
- Industrial [Geberit GEBN.CH +2.3% (double upgrade), Finmeccanica FNC.IT +2.2% (could sell DRS unit), Alstom ALO.FR +0.1% (Mitsubishi Heavy may take direct stake), R Stahl RSL1.DE +1.7% (Weidmuller increases offer)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Indra IDR.ES -0.6% (Spain may take 20% stake), Sthree STHR.UK -1.3% (reports H1 gross profit +10% y/y), Bwin.party BPTY.UK -5.9% (Amaya to acquire Oldford Group)]

Speakers:
- ECB's Linde
(Spain) reiterates the view that ECB alone can't resolve the Euro zone crisis but the recent measures announced this month to help economy and unemployment
- South Africa AMCU union leader Mathunjwa stated that it had not finalized wage deal yet as it was still working out details on items including duration of wage agreement
- Fitch affirmed UK at sovereign rating at AA+; outlook stable
- Fitch cut South Africa's sovereign outlook to negative, affirmed BBB rating
- Swiss KOF Institute Summer Economic Forecasts cut both 2014 and 2015 views for GDP and inflation. It now saw 2014 GDP growth forecasts at 1.8% from 2.0% prior and 2015 GDP growth forecast at 2.0% from 2.1%. It cut 2014 inflation view from "just under" 0.2% to "just under" 0.1% and trimmed 2015 to 0.6%
- IMF commented on Sweden noting that its domestic economy was gathering speed but financial instability was a concern. It cut 2014 GDP growth from 2.8% to 2.6% but raised 2015 GDP growth outlook from 2.6% to 2.7%. It saw 2015 inflation at 1.5%. It noted current monetary policy stance is appropriate
- BOJ Gov Kuroda post rate decision press conference noted that the domestic economy was recovering moderately as the effects from sales tax hike largely as expected thus far. Household spending remained firm despite the demand pullback. BOJ to examine both upside and downside risks to economy and would make appropriate adjustments. Inflation likely to hit target in middle of its forecast period; CPI to pick up pace in H2 of FY14/15. On the overseas economies he noted that the US economic recovery trend had become clear and that Europe would not plunge into deflation
- Islamic State of Iraq (ISIL) forces said to have withdrawn from Baiji refinery in Northern Iraq but other reports circulated that ISIL still had control of Baiji after withdrawal

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The GBP/USD was approaching the 1.70 handle following BoE's Carney hawkish message in his keynote Mansion House speech.
GBP currency strength attributed that dealers now forecasted the first BOE rate hike in late 2014 vs. prior view of late Q1 2015. The 1.7050 level has been a pivotal trading point over the past eight years.
- The JPY currency maintained its recent range after the BOJ left its policy unchanged and reiterated that the domestic recovery was on track.

Political/In the Weekend Papers:
- (UK) BOE's Gov Carney: first rate increase could come sooner than the markets are expecting. So far there are few indications growth is decelerating, unlike MPC expectations for H2.
- (US) US Senate confirm Brainard, Fischer (Vice-Chair) and Powell to Fed board
- (IR) Iran deployed elite forces to Iraq to aid government against rebels
- (KR) South Korea President Park reshuffled nearly half her Cabinet; nominated Choi Kyung-Hwan as the next finance minister
- (CN) Qingdao Port non-ferrous metal financing may involve 17 banks for CNY14.8B - Chinese press
- (CN) PBoC said to hold Yuan steady, unlikely to see depreciation in H2 - financial press

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (UK) UK Sovereign Debt Rating Published by S&P
- (IT) Italy Sovereign Debt Rating May Be Published by Moody's
- (FR) France Sovereign Debt Rating Published by Fitch
- (LV) Latvia Sovereign Debt Rating May Be Published by Moody's
- (US) IMF chief Lagarde in Washington DC
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Apr Trade Balance: No est v 2.4Be
- 06:00 (EU) ECB announces weekly 3-Year LTRO Repayment vs. 7.5Be
- 06:10 (UK) DMO to sell combined 3.5B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month Bills

- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Apr Economic Activity M/M: 0.1%e v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: -1.9%e v -0.1% prior
- 07:30 (IN) India Forex Reserves w/e May 30th: No est v $312.4B prior
- 08:00 (IS) Iceland May Unemployment Rate: No est v 4.1% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Apr Current Account Balance: 526Me v 517M prior; Trade Balance: 560Me v 475M prior; Exports: 14.0Be v 14.2B prior; Imports: 13.5Be v 13.7B prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland May M3 Money Supply M/M: 0.9%e v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 5.6%e v 5.4% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland May CPI M/M: 0.0%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 0.5%e v 0.3% prior
- 08:00 (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) announces instruments to be sold in upcoming auctions
- 08:15 Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (US) May PPI Final Demand M/M: 0.1%e v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 2.4%e v 2.1% prior
- 08:30 (US) May PPI Ex Food and Energy M/M: 0.1%e v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 2.3%e v 1.9% prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Apr Manufacturing Sales M/M: 0.5%e v 0.4% prior
- 08:30 (FR) ECB's Coeure (France) in Croatia
- 09:55 (US) Jun Preliminary University of Michigan Confidence: 83.0e v 81.9 prior
- 12:00 (IS) Iceland May International Reserves (ISK): No est v 468B prior
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina May National Urban CPI M/M: 1.6%e v 1.8% prior
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina May Wholesale Price Index M/M: 1.6%e v 1.7% prior; Y/Y: No est v 26.7% prior
- (CO) Colombia Central Bank Monetary Policy Minutes

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
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13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
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09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


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