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Markets Off to a Cautious Start Monday Amid Political Concerns. Active U.S. Calendar
Markets Off to a Cautious Start Monday Amid Political Concerns. Active U.S. Calendar
June 17, 2014 00:00 gmt
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Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map
- Markets remain in rough a risk-off posture , as traders continue to worry about the implications of a possible disintegration of Iraq on global energy prices.. Oil prices are now off their highs of the day.
- Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets closed mixed, while yields on the periphery were mostly higher.
- U.K. yields ended higher. Many see a +25bp BOE rate hike by yearend U.S. yields steady on the day The U.S. 10-yr is 2.61%, 0 bp.
- Equities closed mixed in the Far East earlier. Bourses in Europe were mostly lower. U.S. shares are up.
The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: GB- CPI, RPI-X, DE- ZEW Survey, US- House Starts & Permits
- Trade Tuesday see a number of key data releases from the U.K. Germany and the U.S. that have the potential to move prices. See "High impact releases in red just above this paragraph. See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.
- After an extended period of low volatility triggered in large part by executives liquidity by the major central banks, I feel we are at a point where trading is going to start to open up again as monetary policies and relative economic growth patterns start to emerge. This is s "normal" state of affairs.
- This week's economic calendar features: UK inflation data Tuesday along with the German ZEW Survey. Also on Tuesday U.S. housings Starts and CPI data are slated. On Wednesday, the focus will be on the tone of the Yellen press conference following the Fed policy decision. Thursday sees the quarterly SNB policy meeting and UK retail sales data. On Friday, Canadian CPI and retail sales figures are due. See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and comments from experienced traders to events as they are released.
TRADING PLANNER
TUESDAY 17June 2014
- GB- CPI, RPIX etc.- BOE targets inflation
- DE- ZEW Survey- key sentiment index
- US- Housing Starts & Permits- Key housing Statistic
- US- CPI- Price metric for Fed
WEDNESDAY 18 June 2014
- GB- BOE Policy Minutes- latest policy decision
- US- Current Account- broadest measure of trade
- US- Fed Decision + Presser- policy outlook key
THURSDAY 19 June 2014
- CH- Swiss National Bank Decision
- UK- Retail Sales- top economic metric
- US- Weekly Jobless- most current read on jobs
FRIDAY 20 June 2014
- CA- Retail Sales- dated but key data
- CA- CPI- BOC policy metric
| FOREX CALENDAR |
| Time |
|
Country |
Title |
Cons |
Last |
| 17/06/14 0:00 |
|
|
TUESDAY |
|
|
| 17/06/14 8:30 |
|
GB |
C-Out PPI y |
1.10% |
1.00% |
| 17/06/14 8:30 |
|
GB |
CPI mm May |
0.20% |
0.40% |
| 17/06/14 8:30 |
|
GB |
CPI yy |
1.70% |
1.80% |
| 17/06/14 8:30 |
|
GB |
RPI-X |
2.60% |
26% |
| 17/06/14 9:00 |
|
DE |
ZEW Conditions |
62.1 |
62.1 |
| 17/06/14 9:00 |
|
DE |
ZEW Expectations |
35 |
33.1 |
| 17/06/14 12:30 |
|
US |
House Starts |
1040 |
1072 |
| 17/06/14 12:30 |
|
US |
House Permits |
1060 |
1059 |
| 17/06/14 12:30 |
|
US |
CPI m Apr |
0.20% |
0.30% |
| 17/06/14 12:30 |
|
US |
CPI yy |
2.00% |
2.00% |
| 17/06/14 12:30 |
|
US |
core CPI m |
0.20% |
0.20% |
| 17/06/14 12:30 |
|
US |
core CPI yy |
1.80% |
1.80% |
| 17/06/14 20:30 |
|
US |
API Energy |
n/a |
n/a |
| 17/06/14 23:50 |
|
JP |
BOJ Minutes |
n/a |
n/a |
| 18/06/14 0:00 |
|
|
WEDNESDAY |
|
|
| 18/06/14 8:30 |
|
GB |
BOE Minutes |
n/a |
n/a |
| 18/06/14 12:30 |
|
US |
Current Account |
-96.6 |
-81.1 |
| 18/06/14 14:30 |
|
US |
EIA Crude mn |
n/a |
-2.6 |
| 18/06/14 14:30 |
|
US |
EIA Gasoline mn |
n/a |
1.7 |
| 18/06/14 14:30 |
|
US |
EIA Distillate mn |
n/a |
0.86 |
| 18/06/14 14:30 |
|
US |
EIA Cap Util |
n/a |
87.90% |
| 18/06/14 18:00 |
|
FRB |
Fed Rates |
0.25% |
0.25% |
| 18/06/14 18:30 |
|
FRB |
Press Conference |
n/a |
n/a |
| 19/06/14 0:00 |
|
|
THURSDAY |
|
|
| 19/06/14 5:00 |
|
JP |
Ind Out Mayf yy |
n/a |
4.10% |
| 19/06/14 7:30 |
|
CH |
SNB |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 19/06/14 8:30 |
|
GB |
Ret Sls mm |
-0.50% |
1.30% |
| 19/06/14 8:30 |
|
GB |
Ret Sls yy |
4.30% |
6.90% |
| 19/06/14 8:30 |
|
GB |
Ret Sls x-fuel mm |
-0.40% |
1.80% |
| 19/06/14 8:30 |
|
GB |
Ret Sls X-fuel yy |
4.80% |
7.70% |
| 19/06/14 10:00 |
|
GB |
CBI Ind Output Trends |
n/a |
32 |
| 19/06/14 12:30 |
|
US |
Cont Claims |
314 |
317 |
| 19/06/14 12:30 |
|
US |
Initial Claims |
n/a |
2164 |
| 19/06/14 14:00 |
|
US |
Philly Fed |
14 |
15.4 |
| 19/06/14 14:00 |
|
US |
Lead Ind |
0.60% |
0.40% |
| 19/06/14 14:30 |
|
US |
Nat Gas bcf |
n/a |
107 |
 Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.
 John M. Bland, is a founding partner of Global-View.com, and an author. He has been an FX consultant for a money center. bank, a forex trader for a N.Y. institution, and a FX analyst for a top Fed watching service. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium
Tue 31 July 2018
AA JP- Bank of Japan
A 06:00 DE- Retail Sales
A 09:00 EZ- flash HICP/GDP
AA 12:30 US- Core PCE Deflator
A 14:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence
Wed 1 Aug 2018
A Final Mfg PMIs
AA 12:15 US- ADP Private Payrolls
A 15:00 US- EIA Crude
AA 18:00 US- Federal Reserve Decision
Thu 2 Aug 2018
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 3 Aug 2018
A Final Services PMIs
AA 12:30 US- Employment
A 12:30 US/CA- Trade
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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