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Tuesday June 17, 2014 - 10:12:41 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: UK inflation at 4 year low; German ZEW mixed but cautious on Q2 outlook


Tue, 17 Jun 2014 5:27 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- RBA Minutes a touch more dovish than expected; accommodative policy will likely be appropriate for some time
- Markets appear to shrug off escalating violence in Iraq
- UK CPI YoY reading annual pace hits 4 1/2 year low; suggest that BOE would be cautious on any rate hike
- German ZEW Survey mixed with expectations hitting a 18-month low

***Economic Data***
- (JP) Tokyo May Condominium Sales Y/Y-13.4% v -39.6% prior
- (SE) Sweden May PES Unemployment Rate: 3.9% v 3.9%e
- (EU) EU27 May New Car Registrations: 4.5% v 4.6% prior; 9th straight monthly rise
- (JP) Japan May Final Machine Tool Orders Y/Y: No est v 24.1% prelim
- (ES) Spain Q1 Labour Costs Y/Y: -0.2% v +2.1% prior
- (EU) ECB 3M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 11.0M prior; 14.8B parked in deposit facility vs. 17.2B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (CH) Swiss May Producer & Import Prices M/M: +0.1% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: -0.8% v -0.9%e
- (IT) Italy Apr Total Trade Balance: 3.5B v 3.7Be; Trade Balance EU: 1.9B v 1.2B prior
- (UK) May CPI M/M: -0.1% v +0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.7%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.7%e
- (UK) May RPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.5%e; RPI Ex Mortgage & Interest Payments Y/Y: 2.5% v 2.6%e; Retail Price Index: 255.9 v 256.2e
- (UK) May PPI Input M/M: -0.9% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: -5.0% v -4.3%e
- (UK) May PPI Output M/M: -0.1% v +0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.7%e
- (UK) May PPI Output Core M/M: 0.0% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.1%e
- (UK) Apr ONS House Price Y/Y: 9.9% v 7.5%e
- (HK) Hong Kong May Unemployment Rate: 3.1% v 3.1%e
- (IL) Israel Jun CPI Forecast: 1.4% v 1.3% prior
- (IL) Israel May M1 Money Supply Y/Y: 19.7% v 20.7% prior
- (DE) Germany Jun ZEW Current Situation: 67.7 v 62.1e (highest since July 2011); Expectations Survey: 29.8 v 35.0e
- (EU) Euro Zone Jun ZEW Expectations Survey: 58.4 v 55.2 prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Q1 Labour Costs Y/Y: 0.9% v 1.6% prior

Fixed Income:
- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total 5.01B vs. 4.0-5.0B indicated range in 6-Month and 12-Month Bills

- Sold 910M in 6-month bills; Avg Yield: 0.144% v 0.362% prior; Bid-to-cover: 5.07x v 4.03x prior
- Sold 4.1B in 12-month bills; Avg Yield: 0.384% v 0.598% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.97x v 2.59x prior
- (DK) Denmark sold total DKK3.4B in 2019 and 2025 Bonds
- (GR) Greece Debt Agency (PDMA) sold 1.3B vs. 1.0B indicated in 13-week Bills; Avg Yield: 1.80% (multi-year low) v 2.13% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.99x v 2.8x prior
- (ZA) South Africa sold total ZAR2.35B in 2026, 2030 and 2048 Bonds
- (CH) Switzerland sold CHF479.2M in 3-month Bills; Yield: -0.15% v -0.15% prior
- (EU) ECB allotted 97.9B in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender at fixed 0.15% vs. 120Be

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Equities***
Indices [Stoxx50 +0.6%,
FTSE 100 +0.2% at 6,772, DAX +0.8% at 9,964, CAC-40 +0.5% at 4,533, IBEX-35 +0.6% at 11,078, FTSE MIB +0.5% at 22,091, SMI +0.2% at 8,675, S&P 500 Futures +0.2% at 1,933]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open higher amid decline in oil prices, DAX outperforms on automakers , M&A speculation supports shares of Shire , Alstom declines following launch of bid by Siemens and Mitsubishi, German ZEW data mixed , Start of two-day FOMC meeting

By Sector
- Healthcare
[Ablynx ABLX.BE +4% (data presentation), Shire SHP.UK +3% (M&A speculation); Galapagos GLPG.BE -5% (data presentation)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Publigroupe PUBN.CH +4% (revised takeover offer), Whitbread WTB.UK +3% (Q1 LFL sales +6.9%)]
- Telecom [Telefonica Deutschland O2D.DE +2% (approval related to E-plus deal)]
- Financials [Unicredit UCG.IT +0.9% (broker commentary)]
- Industrials [Akzo Nobel AKZA.NL +1% (CFO change); Alstom ALO.FR -1.4% (Siemens/Mitsubishi presented offer)]
- Technology [Xaar XAR.UK -22% (warned on outlook)]
Stoxx50 Sectors [Consumer Cyclical +0.9%, Consumer Non-Cyclical +0.9%, Technology +0.9%, Industrials +0.7%, Basic Materials +0.6%, Utilities +0.4%, Telecom +0.4%, Financials +0.2%, Energy flat]

Speakers:
- ECB's Linde
(Spain) stated that global monetary market situation still faced risks and that investors were focused on seeking yield. He forecasted 2014 GDP for Spain at 1.2% and reiterated ECB was extending generous liquidity provision policy.
- Spain Fin Min de Guindos stated that the domestic economic recovery continued and saw Q2 GDP at least as good as Q1 (which was 0.4% q/q)
- German ZEW economists noted that domestic economy was in good shape but added that further increases in economy would be difficult and reiterated view that there were signs Q2 growth to be weaker than Q1. It also noted that ECB measures announced in June had positive impact on expectations
- Swiss SECO June Economic Forecasts cuts its 2014 and 2015 GDP growth outlook while maintaining its inflation views.
- BOE, ECB, BOJ and SNB to continue to offer 7-day USD Liquidity Tenders beyond July, 31st 2014. Operations to continue until further notice
- Czech Central Bank Financial Stability Report noted that financial sector remained stable and financially strong in 2013 and spring 2014. Risk of return to recession is main economic risk and banks might be affected by bond market volatility
- Denmark Central Bank Q2 Outlook noted that the pace of recovery was picking up. It raised the GDP growth outlook for both 2014 and 2015 while trimming the inflation forecasts.
- Implats spokesperson stated that Platinum companies and union agreed to 'big principle' of wage offer ending strike. Still in negotiations on time frame of deal as well as any additional benefits
- IEA issued a medium term outlook and saw global oil demand growing by 7.6M bpd to 2019. It expected global oil demand growth to slow after 2015 and forecasted tight oil supply from outside US could reach 650K bpd by 2019. North America to become net oil exporter by end of decade but US oil production growth to plateau in 2019. It lowered outlook for Iraqi oil production to 4.5M bpd by 2019

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- More evidence that BOE was turning hawkish after comments from notable dove Miles (he stated that would likely vote for a rate hike before his term ends in 11 months time). However, the GBP/USD was still having difficulties finding the momentum of any sustained break above 1.70. The softer inflation data in the session sent the pair back into the mid-1.69 area.
- The EUR/USD remained well contained within recent ranges but did hit a 1-week high at 1.3580. The pair bounced off Monday's lows after reports circulated that ECB would refrain from undertaking additional easing policies over the next several months after the combination of measures announced back on Jun 5th
- Aussie dollar moved sharply lower on the release of RBA policy meeting minutes from earlier this month that were widely deemed more dovish than expected. AUD/USD around 0.9345 ahead of the NY morning

Political/In the Weekend Papers:
- (CN) Moody's comments noted China's sovereign credit profile is likely to withstand rebalancing challenges
- (IQ) Reports did suggest that US and Iran negotiators will discuss the situation in Iraq as part of Vienna talks that will also address Iran's nuclear program. Separately, US confirmed it will send 275 troops to Iraq for support of US personnel and embassy in Baghdad in light of the weekend terror bombing in the capital.
- (US) IMF lowers US 2014 GDP forecast to 2.0% from 2.8% prior (cites weather impacted Q1); maintains 2015 GDP forecast at 3%
-(US) Fed reportedly considering bond fund exit fees to reduce chances of runs on the market - FT
-(AR) US Supreme court refuses to hear appeal from Argentina in debt case against holdout creditors; The decision leaves Argentina with choice of paying the holdout creditors or defaulting on more recently issued bonds

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (UK) PM Cameron meets Chinese Premier Li
- (IR) Iran, World Powers continue Nuclear Talks in Vienna
- (US) Federal Reserve begins 2-day FOMC Meeting (decision on Wed, Jun 17th)
- 05:30 (BE) Belgium Debt Agency to sell combined 2.3B in 3-Month and 12-Month Bills
- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 3-Month Bills

- 06:30 (EU) ESM to sell 1.5B in 6-month Bills
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:45 (US) Weekly ICSC Chain Store Sales
- 08:00 (PL) Poland May Average Gross Wages M/M: -3.0%e v -1.0% prior; Y/Y: 4.4%e v 3.8% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland May Employment M/M: 0.1%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 0.8%e v 0.7% prior
- (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (US) May CPI M/M: 0.2%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 2.0%e v 2.0% prior
- 08:30 (US) May CPI Ex Food and Energy M/M: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.8%e v 1.8% prior

- 08:30 (US) May CPI Index NSA: 237.612e v 237.072 prior; CPI Core Index SA: 237.592e v 237.163 prior
- 08:30 (US) May Housing Starts: 1.030Me v 1.072M prior; Building Permits: 1.050Me v 1.059M prior (revised from 1.080M)
- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail Sales
- 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves
- 10:30 (CA) Canada to sell 3-month, 6-month and 12-month Bills
- 11:00 (US) Fed Purchase $0.85-1.10B in Notes
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 4-Week Bills
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Oil Inventories
- 17:00 (KR) South Korea May PPI Y/Y: No est v -0.3% prior
- 19:50 (JP) Japan May Trade Balance: -1.189Te v -808.9B prior; Adj Trade Balance: -1.030Te v -844.6B prior
- 19:50 (JP) Bank of Japan (BOJ) May 20-21 meeting minutes

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Mon 20 Nov
14:00 EZ- Draghi Speech
15:00 US- Leading Indicators
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


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