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U.S. CPI Hotter than Expected. Housing Data Soft. Focus on Fed Wednesday

U.S. CPI Hotter than Expected.  Housing Data Soft. Focus on Fed Wednesday
June 18, 2014 00:00 gmt
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map

  • Markets are winding up the day in Europe  with a mixed risk-on posture. Political  worries persist.
  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are higher.  Yields on the periphery are up as wel. This follows a hotter than expected U.S. CPI report
  • U.K. yields are higher. Many see a +25bp BOE rate hike by yearend.  U.S. yields are easier. The U.S. 10-yr is 2.64%, +3 bp.
  • Equities closed mostly lower in the Far East earlier. Bourses in Europe are higher. U.S. shares are mixed.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).

    HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS:  JP- BOJ Minutes, GB- BOE Minutes, US- Current Account, Fed
    Decision + Press conference

      • The main focus Wednesday will be on the Fed decision  and, perhaps more importantly, the press conference afterwards by Janet Yellen. While we do not expect any poicy changes, "forward guidance" is now a part of the policy decision for many central banks.
      • U.K. inflation data were softer than expected and are unlikely to influence BOE plans to tighten monetary policy near yearend, unless the economy unexpectedly starts to weaken.
      • German ZEW data were mixed wit thte key expectations index weakening.  are always taken with a grain of salt. Data were mixed but the closely followed expectations index eased.  See "High impact releases  in red just above this paragraph. 
      • See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.
      • This week's economic calendar. On Wednesday, the focus will be on the tone of the Yellen press conference following the Fed policy decision. Thursday sees the quarterly SNB policy meeting and UK retail sales data. On Friday, Canadian CPI and retail sales figures are due.   See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they are released.


        TUESDAY 17June 2014
        • GB-  CPI, RPIX etc.- BOE targets inflation
        • DE- ZEW Survey- key sentiment index
        • US- Housing Starts & Permits- Key housing Statistic
        • US- CPI- Price metric for Fed

        18 June 2014
        • GB- BOE Policy Minutes- latest policy decision
        • US- Current Account- broadest measure of trade
        • US-  Fed Decision + Presser-  policy outlook key  

        THURSDAY 19 June 2014
        • CH- Swiss National Bank Decision
        • UK- Retail Sales- top economic metric
        • US- Weekly Jobless- most current read on jobs

        FRIDAY 20 June 2014
        • CA- Retail Sales- dated but key data
        • CA- CPI- BOC policy metric

        Time   Country Title Cons Last
        17/06/14 20:30 US API Energy n/a n/a
        17/06/14 23:50 JP BOJ Minutes n/a n/a
        18/06/14 8:30 GB BOE Minutes n/a n/a
        18/06/14 12:30 US Current Account -96.6 -81.1
        18/06/14 14:30 US EIA Crude mn n/a -2.6
        18/06/14 14:30 US EIA Gasoline mn n/a 1.7
        18/06/14 14:30 US EIA Distillate mn n/a 0.86
        18/06/14 14:30 US EIA Cap Util n/a 87.90%
        18/06/14 18:00 FRB Fed Rates 0.25% 0.25%
        18/06/14 18:30 FRB Press Conference n/a n/a
        19/06/14 0:00 THURSDAY
        19/06/14 5:00 JP Ind Out Mayf yy n/a 4.10%
        19/06/14 7:30 CH SNB 0.00% 0.00%
        19/06/14 8:30 GB Ret Sls mm -0.50% 1.30%
        19/06/14 8:30 GB Ret Sls yy 4.30% 6.90%
        19/06/14 8:30 GB Ret Sls x-fuel mm -0.40% 1.80%
        19/06/14 8:30 GB Ret Sls X-fuel yy 4.80% 7.70%
        19/06/14 10:00 GB CBI Ind Output Trends n/a 32
        19/06/14 12:30 US Cont Claims 314 317
        19/06/14 12:30 US Initial Claims n/a 2164
        19/06/14 14:00 US Philly Fed 14 15.4
        19/06/14 14:00 US Lead Ind 0.60% 0.40%
        19/06/14 14:30 US Nat Gas bcf n/a 107
        20/06/14 0:00 FRIDAY
        20/06/14 12:30 CA Retail Sales 0.60% -0.10%
        20/06/14 12:30 CA Sales x-autos n/a 0.10%
        20/06/14 12:30 CA BOC CPI Apr y n/a 1.40%
        20/06/14 12:30 CA CPI mm 0.20% 0.30%
        20/06/14 12:30 CA CPI yy 2.00% 2.00%
        20/06/14 14:00 EZ Cons Conf Mayp -6.5 -7
        20/06/14 19:30 US COT Report n/a n/a

        calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar  For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

        See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.

        John M. BlandJohn M. Bland, is a founding partner of,  and an author. He has been an FX consultant for a money center. bank, a forex trader for a N.Y. institution, and a FX analyst for a top Fed watching service. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
    Copyright 2014, GlobalViewpoint, Inc All rights reserved


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