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Focus on Fed Wednesday. BOE Minutes in Line. Warn Markets on Policy Complacency

Focus on Fed Wednesday. BOE  Minutes in Line. Warn Markets on Policy Complacency
June 18, 2014 09:30 gmt
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map

  • Markets have a mixed risk-on posture early in Europe. Political  worries persist.
  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are barely changed. Yields on the periphery are lower.
  • U.K. yields are lower. Many see a +25bp BOE rate hike by yearend. 
  • U.S. yields are easier. The U.S. 10-yr is 2.64%, -1 bp.
  • Equities closed mostly lower in the Far East. Bourses in Europe are higher. U.S. shares are up slightly.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).

    HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: US- Current Account, Fed Decision + Press conference

      • The main focus today is the Fed decision and,  perhaps more importantly, the press conference afterwards by Janet Yellen. While we do not expect any policy changes, "forward guidance" is now a part of the policy decision for many central banks.
      • The latest BOE policy minutes were in line with street expectations. It made an interesting .Interesting comment on that market outlook on rates is surprising. This  echoes recent comment by Carney. Suggests to me that BOE is worried that markets are too complacent about no policy changes. GBP easier on the news 
      • See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.
      • This week's economic calendar. On Wednesday, the focus will be on the tone of the Yellen press conference following the Fed policy decision. Thursday sees the quarterly SNB policy meeting and UK retail sales data. On Friday, Canadian CPI and retail sales figures are due.   See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they are released.

        WEDNESDAY 18 June 2014
        • GB- BOE Policy Minutes- latest policy decision
        • US- Current Account- broadest measure of trade
        • US-  Fed Decision + Presser-  policy outlook key  

        THURSDAY 19 June 2014
        • CH- Swiss National Bank Decision
        • UK- Retail Sales- top economic metric
        • US- Weekly Jobless- most current read on jobs

        FRIDAY 20 June 2014
        • CA- Retail Sales- dated but key data
        • CA- CPI- BOC policy metric

        Time   Country Title Cons Last
        18/06/14 12:30 US Current Account -96.6 -81.1
        18/06/14 14:30 US EIA Crude mn n/a -2.6
        18/06/14 14:30 US EIA Gasoline mn n/a 1.7
        18/06/14 14:30 US EIA Distillate mn n/a 0.86
        18/06/14 14:30 US EIA Cap Util n/a 87.90%
        18/06/14 18:00 FRB Fed Rates 0.25% 0.25%
        18/06/14 18:30 FRB Press Conference n/a n/a
        19/06/14 0:00 THURSDAY
        19/06/14 5:00 JP Ind Out Mayf yy n/a 4.10%
        19/06/14 7:30 CH SNB 0.00% 0.00%
        19/06/14 8:30 GB Ret Sls mm -0.50% 1.30%
        19/06/14 8:30 GB Ret Sls yy 4.30% 6.90%
        19/06/14 8:30 GB Ret Sls x-fuel mm -0.40% 1.80%
        19/06/14 8:30 GB Ret Sls X-fuel yy 4.80% 7.70%
        19/06/14 10:00 GB CBI Ind Output Trends n/a 32
        19/06/14 12:30 US Cont Claims 314 317
        19/06/14 12:30 US Initial Claims n/a 2164
        19/06/14 14:00 US Philly Fed 14 15.4
        19/06/14 14:00 US Lead Ind 0.60% 0.40%
        19/06/14 14:30 US Nat Gas bcf n/a 107
        20/06/14 0:00 FRIDAY
        20/06/14 12:30 CA Retail Sales 0.60% -0.10%
        20/06/14 12:30 CA Sales x-autos n/a 0.10%
        20/06/14 12:30 CA BOC CPI Apr y n/a 1.40%
        20/06/14 12:30 CA CPI mm 0.20% 0.30%
        20/06/14 12:30 CA CPI yy 2.00% 2.00%
        20/06/14 14:00 EZ Cons Conf Mayp -6.5 -7
        20/06/14 19:30 US COT Report n/a n/a

        calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar  For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

        See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.

        John M. BlandJohn M. Bland, is a founding partner of,  and an author. He has been an FX consultant for a money center. bank, a forex trader for a N.Y. institution, and a FX analyst for a top Fed watching service. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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