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No Major Fed Policy Changes. BOE Minutes Were in Line; Warn Markets on Policy Complacency
|No Major Fed Policy Changes. BOE Minutes Were in Line; Warn Markets on Policy Complacency|
June 19, 2014 00:00 gmt
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map
- Markets ended with a mixed risk posture late in Europe. Political worries persist. All await the Fed.
- Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are now lower. Yields on the periphery are mostly higher.
- U.K. yields are lower. Many see a +25bp BOE rate hike by yearend.
- U.S. yields are easier. The U.S. 10-yr is 2.63%, -2 bp.
- Equities closed mostly lower in the Far East. Bourses in Europe are mixed to lower. U.S. shares are softer.
The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: JP- Industrial Output. CH- SNB Decision, GB- Retail Sales. US- Weekly Jobless, Philly Fed, Lead Indicators
- The Fed decision and was much as expected with the central bank holding its Fed Funds target steady and tapering its asset purchase progranm by another $10bln to $35bln.
- The latest BOE policy minutes were in line with street expectations. It made an interesting .Interesting comment on that market outlook on rates is surprising. This echoes recent comment by Carney. Suggests to me that BOE is worried that markets are too complacent about no policy changes. GBP easier on the news
- See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.
- This week's economic calendar. Thursday sees the quarterly SNB policy meeting and UK retail sales data. On Friday, Canadian CPI and retail sales figures are due. See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and comments from experienced traders to events as they are released.
19 June 2014
- CH- Swiss National Bank Decision
- UK- Retail Sales- top economic metric
- US- Weekly Jobless- most current read on jobs
20 June 2014
- CA- Retail Sales- dated but key data
- CA- CPI- BOC policy metric
||Ind Out Mayf yy
||Ret Sls mm
||Ret Sls yy
||Ret Sls x-fuel mm
||Ret Sls X-fuel yy
||CBI Ind Output Trends
||Nat Gas bcf
||BOC CPI Apr y
||Cons Conf Mayp
Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.
John M. Bland, is a founding partner of Global-View.com, and an author. He has been an FX consultant for a money center. bank, a forex trader for a N.Y. institution, and a FX analyst for a top Fed watching service. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
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John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release
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