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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Dovish central bank tones in Europe follows FOMC lead

 
Thu, 19 Jun 2014 5:10 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Most global markets rally after fears of a hawkish tint to the FOMC failed to materialize.
- Norway Central Bank warns of more rate cuts and pushes back view on potential planned first rate hike
- SNB keeps policy steady but prepared to act as it watches impact from recent ECB measures on its economy

***Economic Data***
- (JP) Japan Apr All Industry Activity Index M/M: -4.3%% v -4.1%e
- (JP) Japan Apr Final Leading Index CI: 106.5 v 106.6 prior; Coincident Index: 111.1 v 111.1 prior
- (EU) ECB 266M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 62.0M prior; 28.5B parked in deposit facility vs. 15.8B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (CH) SNB left both 3-Month Libor Target Rate and EUR/CHF floor unchanged at 0.0% and 1.2000 respectively (as expected)
- (NL) Netherlands May Unemployment Rate: 8.6% v 8.8%e
- (NO) Norway Central Bank (Norges) left its Deposit Rates unchanged at 1.50% prior (as expected) but pushed back view on planned rate hike
- (PH) Philippines Central Bank (BSP) left its Overnight Borrowing Rate unchanged at 3.50% (as expected) hikes SDR to combat liquidity concerns
- (UK) May Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M: -0.5% v -0.6%e; Y/Y: 4.7% v 4.8%e
- (UK) May Retail Sales incl Auto M/M: -0.5% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: 3.9% v 4.3%e


Fixed Income:
- (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) sold total 8.0B vs. 7.0-8.0B indicated range in 2016 and 2019 Oats

- Sold 3.803B in 0.25% 2016 Oat; Avg Yield: 0.21% v 0.22% prior; Bid-to-cover: x v 3.54x prior
- Sold 4.195B in new 0.50% 2019 Oat; Avg Yield: 0.69% v 0.68% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.10x v 1.96x prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Equities***
Indices [Stoxx50 +0.9%
, FTSE 100 +0.7% at 6,824, DAX +0.7% at 10,003, CAC-40 +0.7% at 4,562, IBEX-35 +0.6% at 11,175, FTSE MIB +1% at 22,252, SMI +0.4% at 8,690, S&P 500 Futures flat at 1,949]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equities open higher in initial reaction to US Fed commentary, DAX hovers below prior record high, Rolls Royce supported by share buyback, EDF shares weighed down by tariff rejection, BASF reaffirmed FY14 forecast, Rise in cash rates weigh on Chinese equities

By Sector
- Telecom
[BT BT.UK +2% (OFCOM issued rules on superfast broadband); Vodafone VOD.UK -0.5% (broker commentary)]
- Financials [Man Group EMG.UK +5% (acquisition)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Bang & Olufsen BO.DK +8% (FY sales rose), Darty DRTY.UK +3% (FY profits rose), Go-Ahead Group GOG.UK +3% (upbeat outlook), TomTom TOM2.NL +2% (partnership with AOL), Stagecoach SGC.UK +1% (contract award)]
- Healthcare [Evotec EVT.DE +3% (milestone payment)]
- Industrials [Rolls Royce RR.UK +6% (buyback), BASF BAS.DE +1% (reaffirmed FY14 outlook)]
- Technology [Micro Focus MCRO.UK +3% (FY results rose)]
- Utilities [EDF EDF.FR -5.5% (France rejects rate increase)]
- Stoxx50 Sectors [Industrials +1.2%, Basic Materials +0.9%, Utilities +0.7%, Consumer Non-Cyclical +0.7%, Consumer Cyclical +0.6%, Technology +0.6%, Energy +0.4%, Financials +0.3%, Telecom +0.2%]

Speakers:
- SNB statement reiterated view that CHF currency (franc) remained high in value and it would intervene and buy unlimited quantities of foreign currency to defend the minimum exchange rate or take other measures if needed
. It was monitoring property market closely and that downside economic risk remained. It saw no evidence of any sustainable easing in mortgage and real estate market and did not see inflation approaching 2% price stability threshold for entire forecast horizon
- SNB's Jordan post rate press conference stated that SNB was ready to act on Euro-Area rate cut impact and closely monitoring recent ECB interest rate reductions on Switzerland. He saw no signs of inflation risk in Switzerland for foreseeable future. He would not rule out any measures including negative interest rates
- BoEs Weale (hawk)stated that he did not on't see a case to raise interest rates at the moment but later in the year is a different matter. Would be surprised if he changed his view in the near future
- Norway Central Bank policy statement noted that any potential rate hike might not come until end of 2015 (prior view was first potential rate hike seen in summer 2015) and that further GDP weakness might warrant another rate cut. Systemic risk might increase if house prices rise
- German Fin Min Schaeuble stated that stability pact rules to stay as solid fiscal policy was a precondition for sustainable growth. Monetary policy was a short-term solution, in the long-run govts must enact structural reforms
- SNB Financial Stability Report noted that the pace of property market growth imbalances had recently slowed; Sudden normalization could create new stress; 'rate shock' could cause larger losses than euro crisis.
- Poland PM Tusk stated that early elections was not out of the question if tape case could not resolved and was in Poland's interest to explain tape leak quickly. He stressed that he would not resign over the tapes
- Philippines Central Bank stated CPI to settle at upper end of range in 2014/15 period (stay in target over horizon period). It saw food, weather and power prices as risks to outlook. It added that the SDR hike today was aimed at countering risks to price and financial stability from liquidity conditions
- BOJ Board member Morimoto stated that he saw weakness in Japan export sector but adds that they will gradually rise
- Iraqi forces said to regain full control of Baiji refinery in Northern Iraq from ISIS militants

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The USD remained on soft footing after the tone from Wed Fed meeting failed to present any hawkish tint.
The Fed reduced projections for 2014 and long-run benchmark rate. Emerging market and carry-related currencies were the main beneficiaries of Fed dovishness.
- GBP/USD hit fresh 5-year highs as it rose above $1.7011 (highest level since July 2009). The key resistance in the pair remains at 1.7030/50/
- USD/JPY hovered below the 102 handle throughout the session. Dealer noted that 1-month volatility at record low at under 5%
- The NOK currency was broadly weaker after Norway Central Bank pushed back its view on any potential first rate hike to the end of 2015. EUR/NOK surged 1.5% to test 8.32 level before consolidating.

Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) Bundesbank's Dombret: Would like to see little market intervention as possible; last ECB decision was very appropriate; Low rate environment kind of worrisome; concerned particularly with its effect on German housing market, though does not yet see a bubble.
-(EU) IMF said to have issued a statement on the EMU; reiterates calls that the ECB increase its efforts to fight risks of deflation; should consider undertaking bond purchases and QE
-(UK) BoE's Haldane: More normal interest rates would signal that the UK economy is improving, but the economy's response to higher rates would be uncertain; rate hikes need not be immediate, hikes will be gradual
-(UK) BOE nominee Forbes: UK economy has started to recover; main challenge is normalizing policy; Not clear yet if the sources of UK growth are sustainable
- (US) Fed Chair Yellen: Recent readings of CPI have been on the high side, data is noisy, inflation is evolving in line with the FOMC's expectations; There is no mechanical formula for what is "considerable time" between the end of taper and the first rate hike (asked about her prior reference to "6-month period"); Timing will be determined by economy;
- (VN) Vietnam Central Bank to devalue Dong currency by 1%. From Jun 19th the central bank lowered the mid-point for trading the currency by 1% to 21,246 vs the US dollar.
- (JP) Japan Cabinet Office (govt) to maintain economic assessment in the June monthly report to be released Friday; To upgrade assessment of consumer spending - Nikkei New
- (JP) Japan Cabinet may approve growth strategy on Tues June 24th - Japanese press

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (RU) Russia President Putin at World Petroleum Congress in Moscow
- (IT) Italy Apr Current Account Balance: No est v 1.0B prior
- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 12-Month Bills
- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell Floating Bonds
- 05:30 (HU) Hungary to hold Bonds Buy-back auctions
- 05:30 (IE) Ireland Debt Agency (NTMA) to sell 500M in 3-month Bills
- 05:50 (DE) US Treasury Sec Lew with German Fin Min Schaeuble in Berlin
- 06:00 (UK) Jun CBI Industrial Trends Total Orders: 2e v 0 prior; Selling Prices: 5e v 4 prior
- 06:30 (CA) Canada Min Moore speaks in Halifax
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (RO) Romania to sell RON500M in Bills
- 07:00 (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Jun 13th: No est v $469.9B prior
- 07:15 (PT) ECB's Constancio (Portugal) in Athens, Greece
- 07:30 (UK) BOE's McCafferty in London
- 07:30 (EU) ESM Board meets in Luxembourg
- 08:00 (EU) Eurogroup meeting in Luxembourg attended by ECB's Draghi and member Coeure (France)
- (RU) Russia May PPI M/M: 0.3%e v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 8.6%e v 7.2% prior
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 312Ke v 317K prior; Continuing Claims: 2.60Me v 2.614M prior
- 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales
- 09:00 (BE) Belgium Jun Consumer Confidence: No est v -6 prior
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Q1 Aggregate Supply and Demand: 2.0%e v 0.4% prior
- 10:00 (US) Jun Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook: 14.0e v 15.4 prior
- 10:00 (US) May Leading Index: 0.6%e v 0.4% prior

- 10:00 (CO) Colombia Q1 GDP Q/Q: 1.6%e v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 5.2%e v 4.9% prior
- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
(US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories: + bcf vs. + bcf expected range
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $2.25-2.75B in Notes
- 11:00 (US) Treasury Refunding announcement
- 12:45 (PT) ECB's Costa (Portugal) in Lisbon
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $7.0B in 30-Year TIPS Reopening
- 15:00 (US) API Monthly Statistical Report
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina May Trade Balance: $1.5Be v $926M prior

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Mon 20 Nov
14:00 EZ- Draghi Speech
15:00 US- Leading Indicators
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


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