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ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS - MARKETS AWAIT FURTHER MACROPRUDENTIAL POLICY MEASURES

ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS  FRIDAY 20 JUNE 2014

 

MARKETS AWAIT FURTHER MACROPRUDENTIAL POLICY MEASURES

  • Financial Stability Report watched for new macroprudential policy measures
  • US Q1 GDP to be revised down further but more positive signs for Q2
  • Euro area  ‘flash’ PMIs to signal modest output growth in Q2

Varying speeds of policy withdrawal... Over the past week, communication from both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England (BoE) has highlighted the divergent paths that the respective central banks have taken in managing interest rate expectations. Although the Fed continued to taper its asset purchases, comments from Fed Chair Yellen, and the updated set of economic projections, painted a rather cautious assessment over the economic outlook, with US GDP growth this year revised down to 2.1-2.3% from 2.8-3.0%, echoing a similar downgrade by the IMF. In contrast, the BoE sought to raise expectations that the first hike in interest rates could come sooner than markets expected.

FSR watched for FPC actions... While the BoE remains alert to the danger that persistently low levels of Bank Rate may have on financial imbalances, expectations are high that they may first utilise further macroprudential tools to mitigate such risks, especially in the housing market. Following the past week’s Financial Policy Committee (FPC) meeting, the coming week’s Financial Stability Report (FSR) and press conference (Thurs) are expected to be accompanied by new recommendations made by the FPC (see back page). However, with Governor Carney noting that macroprudential policy is not a substitute for monetary policy, any measures announced may fail to temper market rate expectations.

Domestic data flow to remain buoyant... Data over the coming week may also do little to temper interest rate expectations. Recent revisions to construction output in the first quarter suggest the final estimate of Q1 GDP (Fri) will be revised higher to 0.9% from 0.8%. With the focus turning to the outlook for Q2, the Lloyds Bank Business Confidence Barometer (Fri) should provide further insight. So far, the survey, along with the official PMIs, suggests that Q2 GDP growth set to match its robust Q1 pace.

US uncertainty grows... Revisions to the Fed’s economic projections illustrate the uncertain state of the economy.  The growth forecast for 2014 was revised down sharply in response to the unexpected fall in Q1 GDP. However, the unemployment rate forecast was also revised down. Fed Chair Yellen used the word “uncertainty” several times during her post-meeting press conference and there seems to be more than a little confusion over what to make of recent data. Given disappointing Q1 GDP growth, the Fed seems unsure what to make of the fall in unemployment, whether it represents a genuine reduction or a pool of discouraged workers likely to re-enter the workforce if growth picks up. Given this, the Fed is clearly inclined to proceed cautiously. However, it will be watching closely for signs that a tightening labour market is signalling a problem. Chair Yellen was fairly dismissive of the recent rebound in inflation, saying that too much should not be read into ”noisy” data. However, if it persists, and in particular if there are signs of wages picking up, ‘forward guidance’ from the Fed may become more hawkish in the future.

US data watched for Q2 rebound... Amongst this week’s data, Q1 GDP (Weds) is expected to be revised down to show an even bigger fall. However, markets will probably regard this as old news and will be more interested in Q2 trends. These should be generally positive. Housing is an area of downside concern, but May existing sales (Mon) and  new home sales (Tues), are expected to show some improvement. May durable goods orders (Wed) are expected to fall modestly, but underlying orders should show a further pick-up in demand. Meanwhile, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the consumer expenditure deflator, is likely to have accelerated to a 1.8% gain in May (Thurs).   

Euro area trudges on...  The coming week will see June ‘flash’ PMIs for the euro area (Mon) and the German IFO (Tues). Improvements in both are expected, however, this would still only be consistent with modest growth, with Q2 GDP growth likely to be similar to the 0.2% recorded in Q1

  

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This material has been prepared for information purposes only and Lloyds TSB, Bank of Scotland, their directors, officers and employees are not responsible for any consequences arising from any reliance upon such information. Under no circumstances should this material be treated as an offer or solicitation to offer, to buy or sell any product or enter into any transaction. If you receive information from us which is inconsistent with other information which you have received from us, you should refer this to your Lloyds TSB or Bank of Scotland Relationship Manager for clarification.

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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