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TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: A Welcome Dose of Volatility
Wed, 25 Jun 2014 11:14 AM EST
- (UK) Jun CBI Industrial Reported Sales: 4 v 23e
- (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Jun 20th: -1.0 v -9.2% prior
- (US) May Durable Goods: -1.0% v
0.0%e; Durables Ex Transportation: -0.1% v +0.3%e;Capital Shipments
Non-defense/Ex-aircraft: 0.4% v 1.0%e; Capital Goods Orders
Non-defense/Ex-aircraft: 0.7% v 0.5%e; Ex-Defense: % v -0.8% prior
- (US) Q1 Final GDP Annualized Q/Q:
-2.9% v -1.8%e; Personal Consumption: 1.0% v 2.5%e
- (US) Q1 Final GDP Price Index: 1.3% v 1.3%e; Core PCE Q/Q: 1.2% v 1.2%e
- (US) Jun Preliminary Markit US
Services PMI: 61.2 v 58.0e; Composite PMI: 61.1 v 58.4 prior
- (US) DOE Crude: +1.74M v -1Me; Gasoline: +710K v +1Me; Distillate: +1.2M v
- A modicum of volatility has returned
to stock markets over the last two sessions, while trading volumes have ticked
a bit higher. The VIX bounced back above 12 this morning, while trading in US
equities has been choppy, but firmly in positive territory. As of
writing, the DJIA is up 0.37%, the S&P500 is up 0.22% and the Nasdaq is up
- The second revision of the
weather-impacted first quarter GDP was worse than expected, at -2.9% final from
-1.0% preliminary. and the surprise relative to our forecast was all in the
health care estimates. Analysts point out that most components behaved
roughly as expected with the exception of the services component of PCE, which
was revised from a growth rate of +4.3% in the preliminary data to +1.5% this
morning, driven entirely by updated estimates of health care spending. The feds
had assumed medical services would be up sharply due to expanded access under
the ACA, but the latest quarterly services survey showed few signs of
acceleration. Meanwhile the May durables report was weak, with the exception of
the capital goods orders (non-defense, ex-aircraft).
- The front-month WTI contract has come off levels seen last night around
$107.50 to trade as low as $105.75 as officials
pooh-poohed headlines suggesting the Obama administration had cleared the way
for the first exports of US crude oil in 40 years. The Commerce Department
clarified that there has been no broad change in policy, pointing to the
fact that only two firms - Pioneer Natural Resources and Enterprise Products
Partners - were granted permission to export shale condensate, and only after
it had been run through a distillation tower to become a petroleum product. PXD
and EPD are up a few percent on the news, while refiners are tanking on the
story, with VLO down more than 8% and other refiners down 4-7%.
- The US Supreme Court has ruled
against IACI's Aereo streaming television service, stating that it is in
violation of broadcaster copyrights. The sweeping and definitive ruling
was split 6 to 3, and the majority opinion went out of its way to call out
Aereo as the equivalent of a cable company, not merely an equipment provider.
They also emphasized that the ruling does not endanger other technologies,
including cloud computing technology. IACI has lost 2% or so, while CBS is up
5% and DIS is up 1%.
- Monsanto beat earnings expectations
in its third quarter results and authorized a big new share buyback program.
Note that earnings were down 5% y/y and revenue missed expectations, dragged
lower by a 16% y/y decline in sales of genetically-engineered corn seeds.
Executives warned they still expect most growth to come from the seeds business
despite the industry's shift this year from corn to soybeans. MON is up 6.5%.
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $13B in 2-Year Floating Rate Notes Reopening
- 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell 10-Year Bonds
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $35B in 5-Year Notes
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina May Industrial Production M/M: No est v 0.9% prior; Y/Y:
-0.6%e v -4.0% prior
- 17:00 (CO) Colombia Apr Trade Balance: -$0.5Be v -$0.3B prior
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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
Mon 19 Feb 2018
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium
00:00 CN, US- Holiday
Tue 20 Feb 2018
00:00 CN- Holiday
A 10:00 US- ZEW Survey
Wed 21 Feb 2018
00:00 CN- Holiday
A All Day flash PMIs
A 15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
A 15:30 US- EIA Crude
AA 19:00 US- Fed Meeting Minutes
Thu 22 Feb 2018
A 09:00 DE- IFO Survey
A 09:30 GB- GDP
AA 13:30 CA- Retail Sales
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 23 Feb 2018
A 10:00 EZ- Final HICP
AA 13:30 CA- CPI
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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