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Markets Blindsided by Much Larger Than Expected Downward U.S. GDP Revision

Markets Blindsided by Much Larger Than Expected Downward U.S. GDP Revision
June 26, 2014 00:00 gmt
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map

  • Markets are in a mixed risk off posture late in the European session  U.S. data have been mixed with 1Q14 GDP very weak and the ISM flash Services PMI very strong.
  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets eased after weak GDP. Yields on the European periphery are mixed.
  • U.K. yields have fallen. Testimony by BOE Governor Carney Tuesday reduced the risk of a sharp policy tightening of policy. We see only a +25bp BOE rate hike by yearend.
  • U.S. yields have eased  as well. The U.S. 10-yr is pivoting the 2.60% line.The U.S. 10-yr is 2.55%, -5 bp.
  • Equities closed lower in the Far East. Bourses in Europe ending down. U.S. shares are better.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).

    HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: JP- Retail Sales, US- Jobless Claims, Per Inc & PCE Deflator, 7-yr Auction

      • Markets were befuddled Wednesday by mixed U.S. economic data. The third and final 1Q14 U.S. GDP revision saw the data  unexpectedly to an annual decline of 2.90% from -1.00%. Typically the third revision to GDP is relatively small. Later in the session the flash Markit Service PMI showed a significant increase.
      • See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they are released.
      • Some report that trading recently has been impacted by the half yearend on Monday when many will be closing their books. This period also usually sees a rebalancing of forex hedges.  
      • Thursday sees U.S.  weekly Jobless data and Personal Income data (PCE deflator). On Friday, U.K. GDP revisions and the final June University of Michigan Survey are due..
      • See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they are released.
      Weekly Trading Planner

      THURSDAY JUNE 26, 2014
      JP Unemployed Mar
      JP Retail Sales yy Apr
      US Initial Claims - Most current read on Jobs
      US Cont Claims
      US PCE defl y - Primary Fed Inflation Measure
      US Per Inc May  Wage levels
      TRY TRY 7-yr
      FRIDAY JUNE 27, 2014
      JP Core CPI May  - BOJ Inflation Target
      JP CPI
      CH KOF Ind - Swiss Sentiment Index
      GB GDP 1Q14 QQ - UK GDP Revision
      GB GDP 1Q14 YY
      US U Mich final Closely followed
      MONDAY JUNE 30, 2014
      US Chicago PMI
      US Pending Homes Sales
      TUESDAY JULY 1, 2014
      AU- RBA Decision
      EZ- Final Mfg PMI
      GB- Mfg PMI
      CA- Mfg PMI
      US- Final Mfg PMI
      US- Mfg PMI
      WEDNESDAY JULY 2, 2014
      US- ADP Private Jobs

      Time   Country Title Cons Last
      26/06/14 0:30 A JP Unemploy Mar 3.60% 3.60%
      26/06/14 0:50 A JP Retail Sales yy Apr -1.90% -4.40%
      26/06/14 12:30 A US Initial Claims 310 312
      26/06/14 12:30 A US Cont Claims 2.57 2.561
      26/06/14 12:30 A US PCE defl y 1.60% 1.40%
      26/06/14 12:30 A US Per Inc May 0.40% 0.30%
      26/06/14 14:30 C US Nat Gas bcf n/a 113
      26/06/14 17:00 A TRY TRY 7-yr n/a n/a
      27/06/14 0:00 FRIDAY
      27/06/14 0:30 A JP Core CPI May 3.40% 3.20%
      27/06/14 0:30 A JP CPI yy n/a 3.40%
      27/06/14 7:00 A CH KOF Ind n/a 99.8
      27/06/14 8:30 A GB GDP 1Q14 QQ 0.80% 0.80%
      27/06/14 8:30 A GB GDP 1Q14 YY 3.10% 3.10%
      27/06/14 9:00 C EZ Cons Conf -7.4 -7.4
      27/06/14 13:55 A US U Mich final 82 81.3
      27/06/14 19:30 US COT Report n/a n/a

      calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar  For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

      See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.

      John M. BlandJohn M. Bland, is a founding partner of,  and an author. He has been an FX consultant for a money center. bank, a forex trader for a N.Y. institution, and a FX analyst for a top Fed watching service. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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    Mon 19 Feb 2018
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