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Thursday June 26, 2014 - 08:50:09 GMT -

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Focus Today on U.S. Data and How They Fit Into the Larger Picture

Focus Today on U.S. Data and How They Fit Into the Larger Picture
June 26, 2014 09:00 gmt
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map

  • Markets are in a mixed risk posture early in the  European session  Markets are cautious heading into the half-yearend.
  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets have eased. Yields on the European periphery are mixed.
  • U.K. gilt  yields are steady.  BOE Governor Carney speaks again today. On Tuesday, he rejected the possibility of a sharp policy tightening. We see only a +25bp BOE rate hike by yearend.
  • U.S. yields are steady as well. The U.S. 10-yr is pivoting the 2.60% line.The U.S. 10-yr is 2.56%, 0 bp.
  • Equities closed higher in the Far East. Bourses in Europe are mixed. U.S. shares are lower.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).

    HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS:  US- Jobless Claims, Personal Income & PCE Deflator, 7-yr Auction

      • Thursday sees U.S.  weekly Jobless data and Personal Income data (PCE deflator). The PCE Deflator is the Fed's preferred inflation. They target (floor and ceiling) the core PCE at 2.00%. We feel they would not mind to see Core PCE climb above and remain above that target in the near term. This is a key release.
      • See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they are released.
      • Some report that trading recently has been impacted by the half yearend on Monday when many will be closing their books. This period also usually sees a rebalancing of forex hedges.  
      • . On Friday, U.K. GDP revisions and the final June University of Michigan Survey are due..
      • See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they are released.
      Weekly Trading Planner

      THURSDAY JUNE 26, 2014
      US Initial Claims - Most current read on Jobs
      US Cont Claims
      US PCE defl y - Primary Fed Inflation Measure
      US Per Inc May  Wage levels
      TRY TRY 7-yr
      FRIDAY JUNE 27, 2014
      JP Unemployed Mar
      JP Retail Sales yy Apr
      JP Core CPI May  - BOJ Inflation Target
      JP CPI
      CH KOF Ind - Swiss Sentiment Index
      GB GDP 1Q14 QQ - UK GDP Revision
      GB GDP 1Q14 YY
      US U Mich final Closely followed
      MONDAY JUNE 30, 2014
      US Chicago PMI
      US Pending Homes Sales
      TUESDAY JULY 1, 2014
      AU- RBA Decision
      EZ- Final Mfg PMI
      GB- Mfg PMI
      CA- Mfg PMI
      US- Final Mfg PMI
      US- Mfg PMI
      WEDNESDAY JULY 2, 2014
      US- ADP Private Jobs

      Time   Country Title Cons Last
      26/06/14 12:30 A US Initial Claims 310 312
      26/06/14 12:30 A US Cont Claims 2.57 2.561
      26/06/14 12:30 A US PCE defl y 1.60% 1.40%
      26/06/14 12:30 A US Per Inc May 0.40% 0.30%
      26/06/14 14:30 C US Nat Gas bcf n/a 113
      26/06/14 17:00 A TRY TRY 7-yr n/a n/a
      27/06/14 0:00 FRIDAY
      27/06/14 0:30 A JP Core CPI May 3.40% 3.20%
      27/06/14 0:30 A JP CPI yy n/a 3.40%
      27/06/14 7:00 A CH KOF Ind n/a 99.8
      27/06/14 8:30 A GB GDP 1Q14 QQ 0.80% 0.80%
      27/06/14 8:30 A GB GDP 1Q14 YY 3.10% 3.10%
      27/06/14 9:00 C EZ Cons Conf -7.4 -7.4
      27/06/14 13:55 A US U Mich final 82 81.3
      27/06/14 19:30 US COT Report n/a n/a

      calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar  For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

      See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.

      John M. BlandJohn M. Bland, is a founding partner of,  and an author. He has been an FX consultant for a money center. bank, a forex trader for a N.Y. institution, and a FX analyst for a top Fed watching service. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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