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Wednesday July 2, 2014 - 03:41:42 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 02-Jul-2014 -0340 GMT

GOOD MORNING!

STOCKS
The fastest growth in Chinese manufacturing in this year coupled with an unexpected strength in British factory output boosted the market mood. US manufacturing came at a five month high helped the sentiment too.

Dow (16956.07, +0.77%) rallied from end to end of its 300 pts range prevalent for the last 4 weeks. But still needs a break above 17050-70 to break out, though more rallies are expected. Only a break below 16700-600 may signal a deeper correction. The Dax (9902.41, +0.71%) had the expected push up from the major support of 9800-700. The confirmation of strength returning will be a break above 9915-35.

Nikkei (15404.60, +0.51%) has bounced sharply after creating a Harami Doji pattern and has broken above our 15350 to signal a rally to 15600-700. The Shanghai (2052.29, +0.09%) keeps trading in a contracting range for the last few months where the range has come down from 200 to 75 points now with the breakout levels coming at 2000 & 2075.

Nifty (7634.70, +0.31%) consolidated in the higher levels after the sharp rally on Monday. It looks prepared to make a new high above 7700 now and just a little bit of assistance from BankNifty may provide the necessary momentum.

COMMODITIES
Gold (1324.98) tried to rise above 1330 yesterday but could not sustain those levels coming back to support near 1325. We may see an eventual rise towards upcoming resistance zone of 1350-1360 from where it may fall back to 1325. The weekly resistance near 1330 is still holding for now. Near term rise may be seen within an overall down trend.

Silver (21.041) is stable for now in the 20.8-21.2 region and may eventually rise a little towards 21.5-22.5 else consolidate sideways for some more time. Overall the longterm trend remains down.

Copper (3.1830) has dipped a bit after an intra-day high of 3.20 yesterday. A rise above 3.23 would initiate a sharp upmove else we could see some correction towards 3.10-3.07 before again resuming further rise.

Brent (112.17) fell to 111.74 yesterday as expected but bounced from there. If 111.74 holds it may bounce back to 114-115 else we may see a fall to 110.8.

Nymex WTI (105.58) fluctuated highly in the 104.5-106 region but remained stable. It may test 104.2 which if holds may take it higher to 107.35-108 in the near term.

FOREX
The beginning of a new quarter means the time for asset allocation and the ECB meet tomorrow makes the scene more interesting.

Euro (1.3678) is in a normal consolidation as expected after the sharp rally on Monday but it may rally towards 1.3750-1.3800. Now a lot depends on the ECB meet on Thursday.

Dollar-Yen (101.60) may well bounce to 102.50 levels now as the current daily candles suggest. The range of 101.20-102.75 may continue for some more time. The Euro-Yen (138.97) is trading around the resistance of 139 after a rally on the back of a stronger Euro and a firm break above 139 may take it to 140.00-50 levels.

Pound (1.7149) is trading with a lot of bullish momentum and the strong factory output has helped it more. Now it may reach 1.72 as expected or even higher in a day or two.

Aussie (0.9459) broke above 0.9460 to reach 0.95 levels but failed to sustain the higher levels after the Australian trade deficit came 9 times worse than expected. The uptrend remains valid upto 0.9350 but the bulls need an immediate spike above 0.95 to avoid further weakness.

Dollar-Rupee (60.07) came close to the lower end of the range of 60.00-50 yesterday as expected and now the bulls may be hard pressed once again. Below 60.00, we can expect a retest of 59.75-65 but holding 60 would mean another bounce towards 60.20-25.

INTEREST RATES
Some bounce was seen in US Yields yesterday, in line with our hope/ expectation of a bounce. The US 10Yr (2.57%) is up from 2.53% and the 5Yr (1.66%) is up from 1.63%. The 30Yr is up at 3.40%.

On the other hand, the German 10Yr (1.24%) is trading 2bp lower. The 2Yr German-US yield spread (-0.44%) is bouncing off a downtrend channel Support and the 10Yr Spread (-1.31%) is also testing and could bounce off a downtrend channel Support.

The Indian 10Yr GOI (8.74%) trades mildly lower. Keep an eye on crucial Resistance at 8.8%. A break above that can result in a quick rise towards 9.0%. The Indo-US 10Yr Spread (6.19%) has a strong and crucial Resistance near 6.27%, which might well hold. If so, we could see Indian yields coming off a bit. But, maybe, the market will be quiet ahead of the India CPI data in the middle of the month.

DATA TODAY



0:30 GMT or 6:00 IST Australia Trade Balance
...Expected - 0.16 AUD Bln ...Previous -0.78 AUD Bln ...Actual -1.91 AUD Bln

9:00 GMT or 14:30 IST EU GDP
...Expected 0.2 % ...Previous 0.2 %

12:15 GMT or 17:45 IST US ADP Emp
...Expected 206 K ...Previous 180 K


DATA YESTERDAY


JP Tankan Large Manufacturers Index
...Expected 16 ...Previous 17 ...Actual 12

AU PMI
...Actual 48.9 ...Previous 49.20

China PMI
...Expected 51.0 ...Previous 50.8 ...Actual 51.0

JP PMI
...Previous 51.1 ...Actual 51.5


RBA Meeting
...Expected 2.50 %...Previous 2.50 % ...Actual 2.50 %

CH PMI
...Expected 52.6 ...Previous 52.5 ...Actual 54.0

EU PMI
...Expected 51.9 ...Previous 52.2 ...Actual 51.80

UK PMI
...Expected 56.7 ...Previous 57.0 ...Actual 57.50

EU Unemp
...Expected 11.7 % ...Previous 11.70 % ...Actual 11.60 %

US Manufacturing ISM
...Expected 55.6 ...Previous 55.40 ...Actual 55.3

 

 

 

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Mon 20 Nov
14:00 EZ- Draghi Speech
15:00 US- Leading Indicators
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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