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Wednesday July 2, 2014 - 15:25:27 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: ADP Payrolls Report Crushes Expectations


Wed, 02 Jul 2014 11:14 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (IE) Ireland Jun Live Register Monthly Change: -4.4K v -1.6K prior; Unemployment Rate: 11.6 v 11.7% prior
- (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) left its Base Rate unchanged at 2.50%, as expected
- (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Jun 27th: -0.2% v -1.0% prior
- (US) July RBC Consumer Outlook Index: 50.5 v 51.0 prior
- (BR) Brazil May Industrial Production M/M: -0.6% v -0.6%e; Y/Y: -3.2% v -3.4%e
- (US) Jun ADP Employment Change: +281K v +205Ke; largest increase since Nov 2012
- (SG) Singapore Jun Purchasing Managers Index: 50.5 v 51.0e; Electronics Sector Index: 50.7 v 50.5e
- (CA) Canada Jun RBC Canadian Manufacturing PMI: 53.5 v 52.2 prior
- (US) Jun ISM New York: 60.5 v 55.3 prior
- (US) May Factory Orders: -0.5% v -0.3%e
- (US) DOE Crude: -3.16M v -2Me; Gasoline: -1.25M v 0Me; Distillate: +0.98M v +1Me

- Trading has been choppy and volatile this morning after the DJIA and the S&P500 hit fresh all-time highs during yesterday's session. Note that yesterday the DJIA came within 1.3 points of 17,000 on Tuesday. As of writing, the DJIA is up 0.11%, the S&P500 is flat and the Nasdaq is up 0.17%

- The ADP report showed 281K jobs were added to private payrolls in June, stomping the consensus view and rising sharply from the 179K figure in May. The volatile factory orders data contracted more than expected in May, while inventories ticked up 0.8%, the biggest rise since Oct 2011.

- WTI crude trading volumes are high, however the front month contract hasn't budged much from the low $105 handle. The weekly DoE crude oil inventory report showed larger-than-expected draw-downs in both gasoline and crude oil, while the situation in Iraq is only getting worse.

- Shutterfly jumped more than 12% before the bell on rumors that the company was looking to sell itself. Recall that Shutterfly reported a smaller-than-expected quarterly loss and strong guidance for FY15 yesterday after the close.

- After falling a bit in the post-market, shares of JP Morgan are at their lows in cash trading this morning, down a full 1%. Yesterday evening, CEO Dimon disclosed that he has throat cancer, albeit a very mild and highly treatable form of the disease. Dimon said he plans to start treatment shortly and expects to continue working during his treatment and claimed his prognosis is excellent.

- In the first four days of trading, shares of camera-on-a-stick company GoPro doubled from the IPO price of $24. This morning comes the bounce lower, with shares of GPRO down 7%. Among other movers is USEC, Inc., which gained 180% yesterday in a giant short squeeze on talk the company might be able to avoid bankruptcy. USU is up another 50% today. Competitor Uranium Resources is up 9.6% in sympathy.

- In earnings, shares of Greenbrier are up 11% after the railcar firm widely topped earnings and revenue expectations in its Q3 and offered very strong Q4 and FY guidance. Constellation Brands also crushed expectations and raised its FY outlook, but after gaining more than 7% in the premarket shares of STZ have cooled off to around +3%.

***Looking Ahead***
- (IR) Iran and P5+1 hold nuclear talks in Vienna
- 12:00 (UK) BOE's Haldane participates as panelist
- 21:00 (AU) RBA's Stevens speech in Hobart
- 21:00 (CN) China Jun Non-manufacturing PMI: No est v 55.5 prior
- 21:30 (AU) Australia May Retail Sales M/M: 0.0%e v 0.2% prior
- 21:35 (JP) Japan Jun Services PMI: No est v 49.3 prior
- 21:45 (CN) China Jun HSBC China Services PMI: No est v 50.7 prior; Composite PMI: No est v 50.2 prior

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Mon 20 Nov
14:00 EZ- Draghi Speech
15:00 US- Leading Indicators
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
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