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Markets in Risk-on Mode Ahead of June U.S. NFP and ECB Decision
|Markets in Risk-on Mode Ahead of June U.S. NFP and ECB Decision|
July 3, 2014 09:00 gmt
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map
Markets are in a mild risk-on posture heading into June U.S. non-farm payrolls and the ECB policy decision in a few hours
- Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are partially higher Yields on the European periphery are up as well. The German 10-yr bund is 1.300%, +1bp.
- U.K. gilt yields are up. The 10-yr gilt is 2.76% +1bp. We see a +25bp BOE rate hike by yearend.
- U.S.10-yr yield is 2.31%, 0bp.
- Equities closed mostly higher in the Far East. Bourses in Europe are higher. U.S. shares are mixed.
The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: ECB Decision, US- Weekly Jobless, Trade, Employment, Service PMIs
- Final EZ Service PMIs were mostly unchanged today, although Germany was revised lower.
- U.K. final June Service PMI data missed street estimates This index is well below its peaks from eight months ago.
- Many of Friday's U.S. reports have been pushed forward to Thursday. The monthly U.S. Employment report could have a significant impact on the tone of the USD if it confirms the ADP Report. The ADP Private employment report saw a shockingly strong in crease of private jobs in June of +281K.
- Thursday also features an ECB policy decision. No ECB policy changes are expected.
- See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and comments from experienced traders to events as they are released.
||Retail Sls mm May
||Retail Sls yy
||Europe Cntl Bank
||May Trade USDb
||Markit SVC PMI final
||ISM SVC PMI
||Nat Gas bcf
||Factory Ord mm May
||Factory Ord yy
Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.
John M. Bland, is a founding partner of Global-View.com, and an author. He has been an FX consultant for a money center. bank, a forex trader for a N.Y. institution, and a FX analyst for a top Fed watching service. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Mon 20 Nov
14:00 EZ- Draghi Speech
15:00 US- Leading Indicators
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
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13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes
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John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release
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