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Markets in Risk-on Mode Ahead of June U.S. NFP and ECB Decision
|Markets in Risk-on Mode Ahead of June U.S. NFP and ECB Decision|
July 3, 2014 09:00 gmt
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map
Markets are in a mild risk-on posture heading into June U.S. non-farm payrolls and the ECB policy decision in a few hours
- Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are partially higher Yields on the European periphery are up as well. The German 10-yr bund is 1.300%, +1bp.
- U.K. gilt yields are up. The 10-yr gilt is 2.76% +1bp. We see a +25bp BOE rate hike by yearend.
- U.S.10-yr yield is 2.31%, 0bp.
- Equities closed mostly higher in the Far East. Bourses in Europe are higher. U.S. shares are mixed.
The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: ECB Decision, US- Weekly Jobless, Trade, Employment, Service PMIs
- Final EZ Service PMIs were mostly unchanged today, although Germany was revised lower.
- U.K. final June Service PMI data missed street estimates This index is well below its peaks from eight months ago.
- Many of Friday's U.S. reports have been pushed forward to Thursday. The monthly U.S. Employment report could have a significant impact on the tone of the USD if it confirms the ADP Report. The ADP Private employment report saw a shockingly strong in crease of private jobs in June of +281K.
- Thursday also features an ECB policy decision. No ECB policy changes are expected.
- See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and comments from experienced traders to events as they are released.
||Retail Sls mm May
||Retail Sls yy
||Europe Cntl Bank
||May Trade USDb
||Markit SVC PMI final
||ISM SVC PMI
||Nat Gas bcf
||Factory Ord mm May
||Factory Ord yy
Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.
John M. Bland, is a founding partner of Global-View.com, and an author. He has been an FX consultant for a money center. bank, a forex trader for a N.Y. institution, and a FX analyst for a top Fed watching service. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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Mon 15 Oct 2018
AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales
Tue 16 Oct 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment
A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
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