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Thursday July 3, 2014 - 09:44:33 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Riksbank takes action to address low inflation; markets poised for US payroll Thursday

Thu, 03 Jul 2014 5:13 AM EST

- Price action cautious ahead key risk events in session (ECB rate decision and US payrolls data)
- ECB firmly in wait and see mode but to reassure the markets it stands ready to do more, if needed
- Sweden Central Bank take action fuel inflation by cutting key rate and path outlook aggressively
- China Jun HSBC Services PMI: hits a 15-month high (53.1 v 50.7 prior)
- Australia May Retail Sales biggest decline since Mar 2013 (M/M: -0.5% v 0.0%e)

***Key Economic Data in session***
- (IE) Ireland Jun Services PMI: 62.6 v 61.7 prior; highest since Feb 2007
- (IN) India Jun Services PMI: 54.4 v 50.2 prior; second month of expansion and highest reading in 17-months
- (RU) Russia Jun Services PMI: 49.8 v 47.0e; fourth straight month of contraction

- (SE) Sweden Jun PMI Services: 54.6 v 58.5 prior
- (HU) Hungary May Retail Sales Y/Y: 5.1% v 6.4%e
- (TR) Turkey Jun CPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 9.2% v 8.8%e; CPI Core Index Y/Y: 9.7% v 9.8%e
- (TR) Turkey Jun PPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 9.8% v 10.2%e
- (ES) Spain Jun Services PMI: 55.9e v 55.7 prior; 8th month of expansion but lowest since Mar
- (SE) Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) cut Repo Rate by 50bps to 0.25%, more than expected and substantially lowered the rate path outlook
- (SE) Sweden Jun Average House Prices (SEK): 2.2189 v 2.284M prior
- (IT) Italy Jun Services PMI: 53.9 v 52.0e third month of expansion and highest since Nov 2010
- (FR) France Jun Final Services PMI: 48.2 v 48.2e; confirmed its second straight month of contraction
- (DE) Germany Jun Final Services PMI: 54.6 v 54.8e; confirmed its 13th straight month of expansion
- (EU) Euro Zone Jun Final Services PMI: 52.8 v 52.8e; confirmed its 11th straight month of growth

- (HK) Hong Kong Retail Sales Value Y/Y: -4.1% v -4.0%e; Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: -4.7% v -3.8%e
- (UK) Jun Services PMI: 57.7 v 58.3e; 18th month of expansion but a three month low
- (IS) Iceland Jun Preliminary Trade Balance (ISK): -7.7B v +2.4B prior
- (EU) Euro Zone May Retail Sales M/M: 0.0% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 0.7% v 1.8%e

Fixed Income:
- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total 4.51B vs. 3.5-4.5B indicated range in 2020 and 2044 Bonds
- (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) sold total 8.496B vs. 7.5-8.5B indicated range in 2024, 2027 and 2030 Oat bonds

Indices [Stoxx50 +0.3%,
FTSE 100 +0.4% at 6,841, DAX +0.3% at 9,945, CAC-40 +0.4% at 4,460, IBEX-35 -0.4% at 10,974, FTSE MIB +0.4% at 21,770, SMI +0.5% at 8,644, S&P 500 Futures flat at 1,968]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open mixed ahead of US payrolls report and ECB decision, UK construction/engineering firm Balfour Beatty weighed down by profit warning, Germany's K+S more upbeat on potash prices, Russian producer Polyus Gold implements hedging strategy, Shares of Banco Espirito Santo remain volatile, European PMI Services data mixed

By Sector
- Industrials
[Balfour Beatty BBY.UK -11% (profit warning)]
- Basic Materials/Resources [K+S SDF.DE +2.5% (upbeat commentary on potash prices)]
- Utlities [Ibedrola IBE.ES -2.5% (ex-dividend)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Ingenico ING.FR +7% (planned acquisition)]
- Consumer Staples [Poundland PLND.UK +5% (Q1 sales rose)]
- Stoxx50 Sectors [Utilities +0.7%, Technology +0.7%, Energy +0.6%, Basic Materials +0.6%, Telecom +0.6%, Consumer Non-Cyclical +0.5%, Financials +0.5%, Industrials +0.4%; Consumer Cyclical -0.1%]

- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) statement cuts its Repo Rate path outlook substantially through 2016 and pushed back its view in the first rate hike to end 2015 from early 2015

- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Gov Ingves post rate decision press conference noted that 'it saw 'clearly lower' inflationary pressures. And that lower Repo Rate was needed to push up inflation
- Saudi Arabia said to have deployed 30K troops to its border on Iraq after Iraqi troops withdrew from area
- Libya could lift force majeure at its eastern oil terminals as early as today

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- Major FX price action was muted ahead of the ECB rate decision and US payroll data. Dealers expected few surprises with the ECB firmly in wait and see mode but Draghi is likely to keep the door open for additional measures. EUR/USD steady at 1.3660
- The GBP was slightly weaker after its Jun PMI Services data missed expectations and register its first decline in 6 sessions.
- The SEK currency (Kroner) was substantially weaker after the Riksbank cut its Repo Rate more aggressively than expected and substantially lowered its rate path outlook. EUR/SEK surged over 2% to approach 9.39 before consolidating
- The AUD currency was weaker after RBA gov Stevens provided another dose of verbal intervention. AUD/USD off 0.7% at 0.9375

Political/In the Papers:
- (AU) RBA Gov Stevens: Monetary policy is very accommodative but RBA still has ammunition on interest rates; AUD overvalued by most measures
- (UK) BoE's Haldane: Level of GDP is more important than the rate of growth for making rate increases
- (US) Fed Chair Yellen: Increasing rates to promote financial stability would only serve to increase volatility in the employment and inflation sectors of the economy; Not taking monetary policy off the table as a tool to address market excesses
- (UR) German Foreign Min: Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany have reached a tentative agreement for starting new ceasefire negotiations on July 5th

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Q1 GDP Q/Q: +1.2%e v -2.3% prior; Y/Y: +1.8%e v -0.7% prior
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Q1 Current Account: No est v 3.3B prior
- 06:00 (PL) Poland to sell combined PLN1-3B in 2025 and 2028 bonds
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Jun 27th: No est v $471.1B prior
- 07:00 (ZA) South Africa May Electricity Production Y/Y: No est v -1.1% prior; Electricity Consumption Y/Y: No est v 0.0% prior
- 07:00 (UK) BOE's Cunliffe in Liverpool
- 07:30 (US) Jun Challenger Job Cuts: No est v 53.0K prior; Y/Y: No est v 45.5% prior
- 07:45 (EU) ECB Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Key rates unchanged; Main Refinancing Rate unchanged at 0.15%; Marginal Lending Facility unchanged at 0.40% Deposit Facility Rate unchanged at -0.10%
- 08:00 (EU) EU Energy Min Oettinger in panel discussion in Berlin
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (US) Jun Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: +215Ke v +217K prior; Change in Private Payrolls: +213Ke v +216K prior; Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: +10Ke v +10K prior
- 08:30 (US) Jun Unemployment Rate: 6.3%e v 6.3% prior; Underemployment Rate: No est v 12.2% prior; Change in Household Employment: No est v +145K prior
- 08:30 (US) Jun Average Hourly Earnings M/M: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.9%e v 2.1% prior; Average Weekly Hours: 34.5e v 34.5 prior
- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 313Ke v 312K prior; Continuing Claims: 2.56Me v 2.571M prior
- 08:30 (US) May Trade Balance: -$45.0Be v -$47.2B prior

- 08:30 (CA) Canada May Int'l Merchandise Trade: -C$300Me v -C$640M prior
- 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales
- 08:30 (EU) ECB'S Draghi holds post rate decision press conference
- 09:00 (BR) Brazil Jun Services PMI: No est v 50.6 prior; Composite PMI: No est v 49.8 prior
- 09:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel with Fin Min Schaeuble and ECB members Draghi and Weidmann at CDU Event
- 09:45 (US) Jun Final Markit US Services PMI: 61.0e v 61.2 prelim; Composite PMI: No est v 61.1 prelim
- 10:00 (US) Jun ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite: 56.3e v 56.3 prior

- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Central Bank Economist Survey
- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- 11:00 (EU) EU Trade Min De Gucht speaks at Conference in Berlin
- 11:00 (US) Treasury Note announcement
- 13:15 (EU) ECB's Draghi in Berlin
- 23:40 (AU) RBA's Edey speech in Melbourne




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