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Friday July 4, 2014 - 10:22:55 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: No fireworks in quiet session with US market closed for holiday

Fri, 04 Jul 2014 5:10 AM EST

- US July 4th holiday provides excuse for light participation

***Key Economic Data in session***
- (MY) Malaysia May Trade Balance (MYR): 8.0Be v 8.9B prior; Exports Y/Y: 15.2%e v 18.9% prior; Imports Y/Y: 7.9%e v 5.0% prior
- (UK) Retailer John Lewis reports weekly LFL Partnership sales for week ending Jun 27th: +4.4% v -5.6% prior
- DE) Germany May Factory Orders M/M: -1.7% v -1.1%e; Y/Y: 5.5% v 6.0%e
- (CZ) Czech May Retail Sales Y/Y: -0.6% v +3.1%e
- (HU) Hungary May Preliminary Industrial Production M/M: -1.0% v +2.4% prior; Y/Y: 9.6% v 10.7%e
- (EU) ECB 3.0M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 3.0M prior; 28.8B parked in deposit facility vs. 22.4B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- 03:30 (DE) Germany Jun Construction PMI: v 48.1 prior
- (SE) Sweden May Service Production M/M: -1.0% v +0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 4.5% prior
- (SE) Sweden May Industrial Production M/M: -3.2% v +0.1%e; Y/Y: -2.2% v +3.0%e
- (SE) Sweden May Industrial Orders M/M: -2.2% v +0.6% prior; Y/Y: -1.4% v -1.1% prior
- (UK) Jun New Car Registrations Y/Y: 6.2% v 7.7% prior
- (IT) Italy Q1 Deficit to GDP: 6.6 v 2.8% prior
- (CN) Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) Weekly Copper Stockpiles: No est v 78.9K prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Jun Retail PMI: 50.0 v 49.9 prior
- (DE) Germany Jun Retail PMI: 56.2 v 52.5 prior
- (FR) France Jun Retail PMI: 47.6 v 50.5 prior
- (IT) Italy Jun Retail PMI: 43.8 v 45.2 prior
- (TW) Taiwan Jun Foreign Reserves: $423.5B v $421.7B prior

Fixed Income:
- (IN) India sold total INR150B vs. INR150B indicated in 2022, 2028, 2030 and 2042 bonds

Indices [Stoxx50 -0.3%,
FTSE 100 -0.1% at 6,859, DAX -0.1% at 10,024, CAC-40 -0.1% at 4,484, IBEX-35 -0.3% at 11,061, FTSE MIB -0.50% at 21,776, SMI +0.0% at 8,698, S&P 500 Futures -0.1 at 1,976]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Stocks are slightly in the red and little changed from the open in a light trading environment ahead of a 3-day US holiday weekend. Erste Bank is the big mover to the downside after predicting a full-year net loss for 2014 on writedowns in Hungary and Romania.
- Industrials [R Stahl RSL1.DE -3.8% (Weidmueller fails to reach minimum level of acceptance from shareholders for takeover), Acerinox ACX.ES -2.2% (shares placed at 13/shr), SKF SKFB.SE +0.2% (to take SEK220M charge in q2), Stagecoach SGC.UK -0.5% (Loses DLR bid)]
- Telecom [BT Group BT.UK +1.0% (protects pensions against increases in longevity)
- Consumer Discretionary [EasyJet EZJ.UK +2.5% (reports good June metrics), JC Decaux DEC.FR +1.8% (broker upgrade)]
- Financials [Serco SRP.UK -0.7% (Loses DLR bid), Erste EBS.AT -13.5% (Guides FY14 net loss 1.4-1.6B), Xchanging XCH.UK +10.1% (acquires Agencyport)
Justin Zacks

- Sweden Riksbank Deputy Gov Skingsley
stated that the central bank was still concern over household debt and noted new debt measures were needed to offset rate cut
- Czech Central Bank Minutes reiterated the view that it could not rule out weaker CZK currency limit. EUR/CZK currency cap pledge to remain in effect until Q2 2015 and could be delayed further
- South Africa Employers group SEIFSA: Wage talks with Metalworker's Union (NUMSA) stall after they rejected employers new improved wage offer
- China Premier Li Keqiang reiterated govt view that overall economy was stable and within a reasonable range; Q2 GDP growth to be above Q1 level but
should not underestimate pressures on GDP growth due to complicated global growth situation. Macro policy to give more focus on targeted controls

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- Dealers pondered as the second half of 2014 trading got underway whether the USD had nowhere to go but higher following the stellar US jobs report for June . It appeared numerous other central banks (Riksbank, Norges Bank, ECB, BoJ, SNB and RBA appeared to be fighting for a weaker currency
- EUR/USD was under fresh pressure in a quiet session to hit one-week week low below 1.3585. The key support remains at 1.3477 (Jan lows).

Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) Germany Fin Min Schaeuble: Euro zone is on the right track, but reiterates the crisis is not yet over and complacency remains a risk
- (FR) IMF: France public deficit to miss government targets, to fall to 4.0% in 2014 and 3.4% in 2015

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (ES) Estonia Sovereign Debt Rating published by S&P
- (BE) Belgium Sovereign Debt Rating might be published by Moody's
- (NL) Netherlands Sovereign Debt Rating might be published by Moody's
- (SE) Sweden Sovereign Debt Rating published by Fitch
- (EU) EFSF Sovereign Debt Rating published by Fitch
- (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e Jun 27th (RUB): No est v 8.22T prior
- 06:00 (IS) Iceland to sell Bonds
- 06:00 (EU) ECB announces 3-Year LTRO Repayment vs. 4.3Be
- 06:05 (UK) DMO sells total 4.0B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month Bills

- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:30 (IN) India Forex Reserves w/e Jun 20th: No est v $314.9B prior
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Jun Consumer Confidence Index: 91.1e v 90.7 prior
- 17:00 (CO) Colombia Jun PPI M/M: No est v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 3.1% prior
- 17:00 (CO) Colombia May Exports: $5.2Be v $4.3B prior
- (CO) Colombia Monetary Policy Minutes




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