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EURUSD Ends Sub-1.36. Focus on Interest Rates and Relative Growth

EURUSD Ends Sub-1.36. Focus on Interest Rates and Relative Growth
July 7, 2014 00:00 gmt
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map

European Markets were in a mild risk-off posture Friday with U.S. markets closed for the Independence Day holiday today. The EURUSD was testing below the psychological 1.3600 level.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets fell broadly and sharply Yields on the European periphery are down as well. The German 10-yr bund was 1.25%, -5bp.
  • U.K. gilt  yields were lower.  The 10-yr gilt is 2.75% -1bp. Odds favor one +25bp BOE short-term rate hike by yearend.
  • U.S.10-yr  yield  is 2.64%,  -1 bp.
  • Equities closed mostly higher in the Far East. Bourses in Europe ended slightly lower. U.S. share futures are closed for the holiday.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).

    HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS:  DE- Industrial Output, CA- Ivey PMI  

      • On Friday, the EURUSD traded and closed below the 1.3600 line. Relative economic performance suggests the EURUSD SHOULD trade lower over time, but unusual unidentified demand for the EUR has been  providing support.
      • Odds are over time that widening interest rates vs. the EUR will take its toll on the currency.
      • This week gets off to slow start following the active calendar in the previous period. The first headline item is the latest FOMC minutes on Wednesday afternoon. Thursday sees Australian employment data and the July Bank of England policy decision. On Friday Canadian employment data are due. final June Service PMI data missed street estimates This index is well below its peaks from eight months ago.
      • See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they are released.
      Weekly Trading Planner

      TUESDAY  July 8, 2014 
      CH CPI
      WEDNESDAY July 9, 2014
      CN CPI
      US  TRY 10-yr
      US Fed Minutes
      THURSDAY July 10, 2014
      AU Employment
      CN Trade
      GB Trade
      GB Bank of England
      US Weekly Jobless
      TRY TRY 30-yr
      FRIDAY July 11, 2014
      CA Employment

      Time  Imp Country Title Cons Last
      07/07/14 7:00 B DE Ind Output Apr yy 0.00% 0.20%
      07/07/14 14:00 A CA Ivey PMI n/a 46.2
      07/07/14 19:30 US COT Report n/a n/a
      08/07/14 0:00 TUESDAY
      08/07/14 7:00 B DE Trade eur bn 16.2 17.4
      08/07/14 7:15 A CH CPI mm n/a n/a
      08/07/14 7:15 A CH CPI yy 0.20% 0.20%
      08/07/14 8:30 B GB Ind Output m 0.30% 0.40%
      08/07/14 8:30 B GB Ind Output y 3.25% 3.00%
      08/07/14 8:30 B GB Mfg Output m 0.40% 0.40%
      08/07/14 8:30 B GB Mfg Output yy 8.60% 4.40%
      08/07/14 12:30 A CA CPI mm n/a 0.30%
      08/07/14 12:30 A CA CPI yy n/a 0.20%
      08/07/14 17:00 A TRY TRY 3-yr n/a n/a
      08/07/14 20:30 C US API Energy n/a n/a
      09/07/14 0:00 WEDNESDAY
      09/07/14 1:30 CN CPI 2.40% 2.50%
      09/07/14 11:00 C US WK Mortgage Stats n/a n/a
      09/07/14 14:30 B US EIA Crude mn n/a -3.2
      09/07/14 14:30 B US EIA Gasoline mn n/a -1.2
      09/07/14 14:30 B US EIA Distillate mn n/a 0.975
      09/07/14 14:30 B US EIA Cap Util n/a 91.40%
      09/07/14 17:00 A TRY TRY 10-yr n/a n/a
      09/07/14 18:00 A FRB Fed Minutes n/a n/a

      calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar  For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

      See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.

      John M. BlandJohn M. Bland, is a founding partner of,  and an author. He has been an FX consultant for a money center. bank, a forex trader for a N.Y. institution, and a FX analyst for a top Fed watching service. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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