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Monday July 7, 2014 - 10:24:06 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Week begins on a quiet note

Mon, 07 Jul 2014 5:15 AM EST

- Trading week begins on a quieter tone as the summer lull set upon markets
- EU session shrugs off softer-than-expected German and Spanish industrial production reports
- US-China set to begin its 6th round of Strategic and Economic Dialogue

***Key Economic Data in session***
- (JP) Japan May Preliminary Leading Index CI: 105.7 v 105.9e; Coincident Index: 111.1 v 111.0e
- (CH) Swiss Jun Unemployment Rate: 2.9% v 2.9%e; Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adj): 3.2% v 3.2%e
- (DE) Germany May Industrial Production M/M: -1.8% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 1.3% v 3.6%e

- (ZA) South Africa Jun Gross Reserves: $48.7B v $49.3Be; Net Reserves: $44.8B v $44.7Be
- (AU) Australia Jun Foreign Reserves: A$62.9Bv A$65.1B prior
- (CH) Swiss Jun Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF): 449.6B v 445.0Be
- (ES) Spain May Industrial Output NSA Y/Y: +0.4% v -2.1% prior; Industrial Output SA Y/Y: 2.5% v 3.7%e
- (DK) Denmark May Industrial Production M/M: -2.8% v -0.5% prior
- (AT) Austria Jun Wholesale Price Index M/M: 0.1% v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: -1.1% v -1.5% prior
- (CZ) Czech May Industrial Output Y/Y: 2.5% v 5.9%e; Construction Output Y/Y: 0.0% v 8.0% prior
- (CZ) Czech May National Trade Balance (CZK): 13.0B v 15.0Be
- (EU) ECB 0M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 3.0M prior; 27.3B parked in deposit facility vs. 28.8B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (SE) Sweden May Household Consumption M/M: 0.1% v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 3.3% v 4.3% prior
- (SE) Sweden Jun Budget Balance (SEK): -29.1B v +28.9B prior
- (TW) Taiwan Jun Trade Balance: $1.9B v $3.7Be; Exports Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.4%e; Imports Y/Y: +7.5% v -0.5%e
- (NO) Norway May Industrial Production M/M: -5.9% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: -4.0% v +3.2% prior
- (NO) Norway May Manufacturing Production M/M: -0.3%% v +0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.4% v 1.8% prior
- (UK) Jun Lloyds Employment Confidence: 1 v 4 prior
- (EU) Euro Zone July Sentix Investor Confidence: 10.1 v 7.8e
- (SG) Singapore Jun Foreign Reserves: $278.0B v $276.1B prior
- (MY) Malaysia Jun Foreign Reserves: $131.9B v $131.1B prior
- (IT) Bank of Italy Balance-Sheet Aggregates: Jun ECB funding to Italian banks: 179.6B v 216.4B prior

Fixed Income:
- None seen

Indices [Stoxx50 -0.3%
, FTSE 100 -0.2% at 6,853, DAX -0.1% at 9,999, CAC-40 -0.4% at 4,453, IBEX-35 -0.4% at 10,967, FTSE MIB -0.5% at 21,445, SMI -0.3% at 8,650, S&P 500 Futures -0.2% at 1,974]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European equity markets open mostly lower following last week's gains as traders seek direction from US markets, UK homebuilder Taylor Wimpey trades lower despite upbeat outlook, Renault raises forecast for European market, Swiss insurance merger (National Suisse and Helvetia Holding), PostNL rises sharply on improved outlook

By Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
[Air Berlin AB1.DE +5% (June traffic rose), Mediaset MS.IT +2% (sale of stake in Mediaset Premium), Renault RNO.FR +2% (raised forecast for European market)]
- Industrials [Ballast Nedam BALNE.NL -4% (H1 loss widened); PostNL PNL.NL +15% (raised outlook)]
- Telecom [Sky Deutschland SKYD.DE -2% (broker commentary); Tele2 TEL2B.SE +3% (asset sale)]
- Financials [National Suisse NATN.CH +25% (merger agreement), Banco Espirito Santo BES.PT +6% (expected management appoints)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Basic Materials -0.7%, Industrials -0.5%, Energy -0.5%, Consumer Non-Cyclical -0.5%;Technology +0.4%, Utilities flat, Telecom flat, Consumer Cyclical flat, Financials flat]

- ECB's Nowotny presented Austrian Financial Stability Report
. He noted that measures taken back at its June 5th ECB meeting were having impact. Low interest rates were the right response but not sufficient for recovery
- Italy's Fin Min Padoan reiterated that its domestic economic recovery could be delayed as he saw contradictory signs for recovery
- Greece said to face an additional fiscal deficit of 2.0B for 2014/15 period and the Troika set to ask Greece for additional measures
- Poland Central Bank (NBP) updated its Staff projections which trimmed its CPI outlook for 2014 thru 2016 period but basically kept its growth outlook unchanged
- Poland Central Bank Chojna-Duch (dove): Staff projections shows need for more rate cuts. MPC would have difficulty justifying keeping Base Rate at 2.50% in coming months. She hoped that the next round of economic data would have the central bank drop its steady rate policy
- Russia First Deputy Min Shuvalov: Russia must protect its market after Moldova-EU trade association agreement
- Russia and Georgia to discuss ties following the recent signing of EU trade association agreement
- China PBoC Q2 Monetary Policy Statement reiterated that both economy and prices were stable
- China Vice Fin Min Zhu commented ahead of the 6th round of US-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue that the US must pay attention to external effects of QE taper. China to talk about impact of future Fed rate rise

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- Quiet start to the trading week with the major currency pairs little change and well within recent ranges
- The EUR/USD held below the 1.36 handle and did not react to weaker German industrial production data. Germany had previously noted that Q2 growth would be below Q1 levels.

Political/In the Papers:
- IMF head Lagarde suggested that the slow rate of investment could weigh on global growth - London Telegraph; According to Lagarde, the IMF's latest growth forecasts will differ slightly from the forecasts given in April
- (FR) France Fin Min Sapin: Calls for a rebalancing of the currencies used in global payments - FT
- (UR) Ukraine Govt forces recapture Slaviansk in Eastern Ukraine (a former rebel stronghold)

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (CA) Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) member nations continue meeting throughout week
- (EU) Euro Area Finance Ministers meet Poland Dep PM Piechocinski in Warsaw
- (AR) Argentina sends delegation to NY to meet Court mediator
- (IR) Iran and P5+1 powers hold talks in Vienna
- (EU) EFSF to sell debt upcoming transaction this week
- (IL) Israel Jun Foreign Currency Balance: No est v $86.5B prior
- (RU) Russia Jun Official Reserve Assets: $473.0Be v $467.2B prior
- 06:00 (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) to sell 2.0-4.0B in 3-Month and 12-Month Bills
- 06:00 (IS) Israel to sell 2016, 2017, 2019, 2021 and 2041 bonds
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (IE) Ireland Jun Consumer Confidence: No est v 79.4 prior
- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Jun Official Reserves: No est v $102.7B prior
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (CA) Canada May Building Permits M/M: 2.0%e v 1.1% prior
- 08:30 (CL) Chile May Economic Activity M/M: 1.0%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 3.0%e v 2.3% prior
- 08:30 (CL) Chile Jun Trade Balance: $175Me v $1.5B prior; Total Exports: $7.0Be v $7.0B prior ; Total Imports: No est v $5.5B prior
- 08:30 (CL) Chile Jun Copper Exports: No est v $3.5B prior
- 08:50 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell combined 6.4-7.6B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month Bills
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico May Leading Indicators M/M: No est v 0.0 prior
- 09:00 (CL) Chile May Real Wage M/M: No est v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.2% prior
- 09:30 (EU) ECB calls for bids in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender
- 10:00 (CA) Canada Jun Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (Seasonally Adj): No est v 48.2 prior; PMI Unadj: No est v 52.2prior
- 10:30 (CA) Bank of Canada (BOC): Q2 Senior Loan Officer Survey: No est v -10.9 prior; Business Outlook Future Sales: No est v 27 prior
- 11:00 (DE) ECB's Lautenschlager (Germany) in Hamburg
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $2.50-3.25B in notes
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
- 14:00 (NZ) New Zealand Central Bank (RBNZ) Gov Wheeler
- 16:00 (US) Crop Condition Report
- 19:50 (JP) Japan May Current Account Balance: 447.5Be v 187.4B prior; Adj Current Account: 158.1Bev 130.5B prior
- 19:50 (JP) Japan May Trade Balance: 845.2Be v -780.4B prior

-23:45 (JP) BOJ Dep Gov Nakaso speaks in Tokyo
- (MX) Mexico Banamex Survey of Economists
- (CO) Colombia Jun CPI Core M/M: No est v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.8% prior
- US Sec of State Kerry to visit China on July 8-10th for the US-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue




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