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Tuesday July 8, 2014 - 03:57:18 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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Morning Briefing : 08-Jul-2014 -0355 GMT

GOOD MORNING!

STOCKS
Today both Rail budget and CAD data will be available but the impact of CAD may be more on the markets.

Dow (17024.21, -0.26%) closed at a 5 week high and above 17050 on the back of a good NFP data and may rise to 17250-300 now. The Dax (9906.07, -1.03%) got sold off from the life high of 10050 but 10200-250 can be expected soon after the breakout and even higher levels canít be ruled out anymore.

Nikkei (15308.46, -0.46%) is struggling near the major support area of 15300-250 and it still may rise higher but a bit of weakness is seeping in. The Shanghai (2054.20, -0.28%) keeps trading in a contracting range for the last few months where the range has narrowed with the breakout levels coming at 2000 & 2075.A break below 2050 now can drag it to 2020-2000 once again.

Nifty (7787.15, +0.46%) looks all set for our higher targets of 7900-8000 now after the Friday correction got support in 7680-50 exactly in line with our expectation. Keep any eye on BankNifty if it manages to break above 15800, bringing more momentum

COMMODITIES
Gold (1317.721) and Silver (20.991) are stable for now and may show ranged movements in for some more time. A break on either direction could be expected which would initiate sharp moves. However, the long term trend is down.

Copper (3.2495) is trading lower. Has the recent rise ended? Or will it rise towards 3.33 after a small correction? Need to wait and watch. Near term rally may continue within a long term downtrend.

Nymex WTI (103.42) is testing channel support near current levels and has a fair possibility to bounce back in the coming sessions while Brent (110.06) is also testing support near current levels. Note that the recent correction in the Oil market may be over and we could see a sharp bounce in the coming sessions.

FOREX

Keep an eye on the Indian CAD data today as that is going to affect the Dollar Rupee a lot.

Euro (1.3604) is testing our support of 1.3580-50 and a break above 1.3600 may produce a bounce to 1.3640-50 where the sellers may return again. The continued weakness in EURGBP (0.7940) suggests more downside, even up to 1.35, especially if EURGBP fails to bounce from the channel support of 0.7905-0.7900.

With the unchanged policy of BOJ & no additional QE in sight, the upward potential of Dollar-Yen (101.79) is limited and the range of 101.20-102.75 may continue for some more time. The Euro-Yen (138.48) dropped sharply on account of a weak Euro and stagnant Yen but the broader range of 138-140 must break before a decisive run emerges.

Pound (1.7134) is unaffected by all those happenings in ECB or US and keeps trading with a lot of bullish momentum. Now it may reach 1.72 as expected or even higher very soon after the current consolidation ends.

After the false breakout above 0.9460, Aussie (0.9388) has tested the entire support band of 0.9350-20 and now it must bounce higher without making any new low to keep the already threatened uptrend alive.

Dollar-Rupee (60.01) may turn down again towards 59.50 if fails to break above 60.10 immediately. Only a break above 60.10 may extend the bounce higher till 60.40-50.

INTEREST RATES
The Indian 10Yr GOI yield (8.70%) has risen a bit yesterday but we may not negate a fall towards 8.50% just now as the upcoming Budget may influence the yields to move down as said earlier. Till then a broad range of 8.50%-8.75% could be seen in the near term.

The German-US yield Spreads (2Yr -0.51%, 10Yr -1.35%) are moving sharply down which may reflect in a fall in the Euro (1.3605).

The US 30Yr (3.44%), the 5Yr (1.74%) and the 10Yr (2.62%) have fallen yesterday. The US 10-5 Yr yield differential is heading downwards and may take the yields lower. The US 30yr-5yr differential is testing support and may bounce back from current levels, indicating that the 30-yr yields may rise in the near term.

DATA TODAY



No major data release today.

DATA YESTERDAY
No major data release yesterday.

 

 

 

 

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